Westminster should watch closely as Wales and Scotland show how minority government can work

Despite having a massive Commons majority, Keir Starmer is fighting for survival as prime minister following last week’s crushing losses in devolved elections in Scotland, Wales and local elections in England. At the devolved level itself, however, new governments are about to be formed, headed by the leaders of the Scottish and Welsh nationalist parties, neither of which won an outright majority. 

Based on the numbers, the position of the Scottish and Welsh first ministers might appear weak, but the history of devolution shows clearly that a majority is not essential to making government work.

Minority government is nothing new at the devolved level 

In Cardiff, Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth has just been nominated by the Welsh parliament to become the first ever non-Labour first minister of Wales. With 43 out of 96 seats in the Senedd, he intends to govern as a minority, seeking to cooperate with smaller parties such as Labour and the Greens to get his business through, without entering into a formal coalition or cooperation agreement.

In Edinburgh, meanwhile, incumbent first minister and SNP leader John Swinney has invited leaders of all the opposition parties except Reform UK to engage in discussions about potential areas for inter-party collaboration. Some form of minority government seems likely, potentially with a cooperation agreement with the Scottish Greens. 

Multi-party governance of some form is nothing new in either Scotland or Wales. Indeed, only once in the history of devolution – the SNP in 2011 – has a single party won an outright majority. 

In Westminster, of course, minority administrations have been a rarity. But as the collapse of the old two-party system destabilises yet another prime minister, the future looks likely to include more frequent hung parliaments. So what is it that makes minority (or multi-party) government tick? What are the lessons from the past 25 years in Scotland and Wales? And what can we expect over the coming period in Scotland and Wales?

The rules of the game in Scotland and Wales support multi-party governance

The use of proportional representation in Wales and Scotland naturally means that leaders head into the election expecting to have to cooperate and negotiate with other parties to achieve their objectives. By contrast, Westminster’s first-past-the-post system means a hefty majority on a 35% vote share can be (and is being) interpreted as a clear-cut mandate for the winning party and its entire policy platform.

Plaid Cymru will seek to make progress with its agenda in partnership with other progressive parties, including Labour, with whom Plaid concluded a formal cooperation agreement five years ago when Labour were the larger party. The SNP is most likely to work with the Greens to advance both constitutional and domestic policy objectives. Again, this would build upon previous periods of partnership working: from 2021 to 2024, two Green ministers sat in Nicola Sturgeon’s government, while remaining outside of overall collective responsibility in areas where the parties disagreed.

Another feature of the legislative framework for devolution that supports minority government is that it is very difficult to bring about an early election. The fixed-term provisions in the Scotland Act 1998 and Government of Wales Act 2006 mean that if a first minister, for any reason, leaves their post, there is a 28-day period in which to select a successor. Only if a majority of members frustrate this process for a full month can an ‘extraordinary general election’ be triggered. This has never happened.

These fixed-term provisions make it hard for the opposition to bring down a minority government, but they also prevent a first minister from threatening early dissolution – as UK prime ministers can do – to keep their own backbenchers or smaller support parties onside. First ministers who lose a majority may fall – as happened to Humza Yousaf in 2024, or Alun Michael in Cardiff way back in 2000 – but in such cases the result has been a new first minister from the same party, rather than early dissolution. Westminster plays by different rules, having repealed the short-lived Fixed-term Parliament Act in 2022.

A government can survive as long as the opposition does not unite against it

The power of the executive does not rest solely on day-to-day control of the legislature. Government needs a majority (of those who vote – not necessarily of all members) to pass legislation and budgets, and to survive confidence votes. But ministers have wide executive powers to direct the civil service, allocate resources, and take action to improve public services. A minority government can achieve a great deal without changing the law.

Both Rhun ap Iorwerth and John Swinney will also form their new minority governments with the important advantage that the opposition parties are so fragmented that there is little chance they will be able to work together in a coordinated way. The rise of Reform UK may further strengthen their hand: the more the party is treated as a pariah by other parties, the more improbable it is that the opposition will unite against the government.

Naturally, minority government requires a different style of leadership, involving consultation with opposition parties on a continuous basis, tactical concessions on budgets and bills, and willingness to suffer the odd defeat in the legislature. Expectations are necessarily adjusted, but smart and agile minority governments can often divide and rule, as Alex Salmond did from 2007 to 2011 when the SNP held just 47 seats in the 129-seat chamber.

At the UK level, Labour will retain control of parliament whether or not the removal vans show up at No.10 anytime soon. But looking ahead to 2029 and beyond, it seems increasingly likely that Westminster itself will need to learn these lessons about how to govern without a majority.