The significance of the 2026 elections for UK government

In the aftermath of the local and devolved elections, much public debate is focusing on the implications of the results for the next general election, the future of the prime minister and the electoral strategies which Labour and the UK’s other political parties should adopt. These are crucial questions, but ones which risk crowding out more urgent and no less important thoughts about what the results will mean for those governing the UK right now – and also about the longer-term consequences of the fracturing of British politics  

What do the 2026 election results mean for local government?  

Across swathes of local government these elections will have immediate practical consequences for the business of government, with huge numbers of incumbent politicians from the established Labour and Conservative parties replaced by new and inexperienced councillors from the insurgent parties on the left and right – the Greens and Reform UK.  

These newbie politicians will have to get up to speed with their roles in a challenging context. As the Institute’s Public Services Performance Tracker has shown, local government in England has been in crisis for many years, and running local government has essentially been about financial survival, managing ballooning demand for SEND and social care services which local councils have a statutory requirement to provide.  

Since the 2024 election, many English councils have been undertaking this role in the context of the additional pressures of local government reorganisation and the rollout of Mayoral Combined Authorities in many parts of the country. Meanwhile, despite efforts by parties to improve their vetting processes, recent experience suggests that the sheer number of new people being subject to scrutiny as they enter politics means we are likely to see a destabilising bump in scandals and resignations as councils begin their work.  

These elections have seen a number of English councils change hands. For the Green party and Reform UK, taking control of councils presents an opportunity to develop their representatives’ skills and experience, and demonstrate their governing credentials ahead of the next general election (although there is negligible evidence that voters actually cast national ballots on the basis of local performance). However, any enthusiasm for introducing disruption into the system will need to be balanced by the necessity of delivering rapidly for their voters by operating effectively in existing structures.  

However, “election by thirds” in some councils (a practice we have argued should be abolished) has meant Labour and Conservative council losses have not been as numerous as they would have been if all elections had been “all out”. Instead, we have seen 22 more councils pass into No Overall Control (NOC) under which different combinations of parties will need to work together to get business done (the total is now 61). NOC is not unusual in local government, but the growing success of the Greens and Reform UK means that more councils will now be run by new groups of councillors without experience of working together. Across England’s Mayoral Combined Authorities, mayors will need to get used to governing with different combinations of council leaders. This means that we will effectively see local dress rehearsals for the sort of fragmented governing coalitions that the next general election could produce in Westminster.  

What do the 2026 election results mean for devolved government?

The elections will also have immediate practical consequences for devolved government and inter-governmental relations. A Plaid Cymru-led government in Wales is a dramatic change from Labour’s century-long dominance of Welsh politics, and this – combined with the expansion of the Senedd from 60 to 96 members – is the most significant shock to Welsh government since the establishment of devolution. The Welsh civil service will be poised to aid its new political masters while also facing the challenge of adapting to a new approach and set of ministerial priorities.

Conversely, the arrival of a Plaid first minister means a return – after a brief interlude – to the 2010-2024 dynamic of different parties governing in Cardiff and in London. It will be interesting to see what approach Plaid’s leader Rhun ap Iorwerth takes to Westminster and what difference his arrival makes to the UK government’s approach to inter-governmental relations (on which, so far, warm words about more productive engagement have largely boiled down to business as usual).

Meanwhile the SNP’s continued control of the Scottish parliament, albeit governing as a minority on a lower percentage of the vote – which has been fractured by the arrival of Reform in Scotland’s electoral landscape – means that all three devolved nations will simultaneously have a nationalist first minister. This will likely bring questions about the Union back onto the agenda in Westminster – not least given John Swinney’s stated intention to push – at least performatively – for another referendum. If Reform UK form the next government at Westminster, tensions between the UK and devolved governments could rise even further.

What do the 2026 election results mean for future general elections?

These elections have provided further evidence that the fracturing of British politics is not a temporary aberration – as the Conservative and Labour parties appear to have been hoping – but a phenomenon which is here to stay. And the polls have shown again how voter disenchantment with the two legacy main parties can play out across a range of electoral systems in the different nations. The prospect of numerous Westminster constituencies becoming highly unpredictable three, four or five-way marginals at the next election is increasing with the electoral success of nationalist parties, the Greens and Reform UK. So is the possibility of five parties each winning between 15 and 25% of the vote. This could raise the public salience of long-standing calls for electoral reform in a way not previously seen in the UK.

All eyes are now on Keir Starmer – how he responds to the public challenge posed by these election results and whether he faces a leadership challenge from within his party. But, as I argued after the Gorton and Denton by-election, these elections should also be a piercing wake-up call to consider how equipped our parliament, government and constitutional arrangements (such as government formation and political funding) are for a multi-party future. The morning after the next general election will be too late to turn our minds to these questions, which is why the IfG will be examining them in the months to come.