The next Scottish and Welsh governments are likely to put constitutional change back on the agenda

While a focus on ‘bread and butter’ issues has shaped manifestos ahead of the Welsh and Scottish elections, several important constitutional and governance commitments reveal competing visions of how those countries should be governed – and, perhaps, the future of the UK. 

The SNP push independence while Plaid takes a more cautious line 

While independence features prominently in Scotland’s election campaign, in Wales the debate is more tentative. The SNP pledges to bring forward a vote on the first sitting day of the new Scottish parliament to approve a section 30 order granting Scotland the power to hold an independence referendum. ²³ SNP, ‘100 days of a new SNP government’, 27 April 2026, retrieved 6 May 2026, www.snp.org/first-minister-john-swinneys-speech-on-the-snps-plan-for-the-first-100-days-of-the-next-parliament/  They also pledge to publish a draft referendum bill, convene a constitutional convention and to initiate discussions with the UK government on transferring referendum powers. 

In Wales, Plaid Cymru also sets out a path to independence – but unlike in 2021, the party does not propose to hold an independence referendum in the first term of a Plaid-led government. Instead, the party plans to undertake preparatory work towards an independent Wales, including engaging citizens and researching key questions on Wales’s constitutional future, to “lay the foundations for a future white paper on Welsh independence”. ²⁴ Plaid Cymru, ‘For Wales: 2026 Manifesto’, n.d., retrieved 6 May 2026, www.partyof.wales/manifesto/  

Polling suggests that both the SNP and Plaid Cymru may fall short of a majority, positioning the pro-independence Greens as potential kingmakers in both Scotland and Wales. In their 2026 manifesto, the Scottish Greens also commit to initiate the section 30 process to call for “the devolution of the remaining powers reserved to Westminster”, which would amount to independence. ²⁵ Scottish Greens, ‘2026 Scottish Greens Manifesto’, n.d., retrieved 6 May 2026, 2026 Scottish Greens Manifesto - Scottish Greens  They do not explicitly state that they would hold a referendum on the issue, though they have supported calls for one in the past. In Wales, while independence does not feature in their manifesto, Welsh Green leader Anthony Slaughter has stated that independence is “essential to building the fairer, greener future for Wales”. ²⁶ Green Party Wales, ‘Wales Green Party welcomes constitutional commission report as part of the journey of independence’ 18 January 2024, retrieved 6 May 2026, wales.greenparty.org.uk/2024/01/18/commission-pr/  

Regardless of the political or legal strategies pursued by the Scottish or Welsh governments, the power to legislate for an independence referendum sits solely with Westminster – as confirmed by a 2022 UK Supreme Court ruling following the SNP’s attempts to legislate for a second referendum. So while nationalist parties may pledge a route to independence to voters, their capacity to deliver it is limited. 

Several parties call for new or deepened powers 

Many parties also plan to seek further devolved powers, with both the SNP and the Scottish Greens calling for further powers for Holyrood. The SNP’s manifesto makes the case for devolution of employment law and includes a new pledge to introduce food price caps, which may run into the UK Internal Market Act. The Scottish Greens’ manifesto includes more explicit calls for further devolution – including more powers over rail, tax of shares and dividends, foreign affairs, migration and drug legislation ³¹ Scottish Greens, ’Let’s demand better: Scottish Greens Manifesto 2026’, https://greens.scot/sites/default/files/public/Scottish%20Greens%20Manifesto.pdf  – which could feature in a shared policy platform should the SNP and Greens sign a cooperation agreement as they did in 2021. 

In Wales – which has fewer devolved powers than Scotland – a stronger cross-party consensus has emerged for further powers for the Senedd and stronger constitutional protection for devolution. Plaid Cymru, Welsh Labour, the Green Party and the Welsh Liberal Democrats all support further devolution, including of policing and justice, the Crown Estate, broadcasting and expanded tax powers, while Plaid and the Greens also make the case for the devolution of water and rail, in line with Scotland. 

But calls for further devolution are not unanimous. The Welsh Conservatives have ruled out extending the Senedd’s powers, ³² Welsh Conservatives, ’Our plan to get Wales working: 2026 manifesto’, n.d., https://www.conservatives.wales/sites/www.conservatives.wales/files/2026-03/Welsh%20Conservatives%20Manifesto%202026%20EN_0.pdf  while Reform UK do not mention further devolution or independence at all in their Senedd manifesto. ³³ Reform UK, ’Reform Wales Senedd Manifesto 2026’, n.d., https://www.reformparty.uk/welsh-manifesto-english.pdf  In Scotland, Reform UK leader Malcolm Offord has called for constitutional questions to be put aside for a decade, to be replaced by a 10-yearly review of Scotland’s devolved powers, led jointly by Holyrood and Westminster. ³⁴ Reform UK, ’Manifesto for Scotland 2026’, n.d., https://www.reformparty.uk/view-pdf/scotland-manifesto  

Westminster-devolved relations could be more strained post-May

As with independence, the power to devolve further powers to Scotland and Wales remains with Westminster, and Keir Starmer’s government has shown little enthusiasm for further devolution – rejecting the Welsh government’s calls for the devolution of policing and the Scottish government’s case for migration powers. Starmer’s approach to UK-devolved relations has drawn criticism, including accusations of “rolling back devolution” by several Welsh Labour MSs ³⁶ Glyn-Jones T, ‘Welsh Labour MSs accuse Starmer of rolling back devolution’, 3 December 2025, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj38j07074mo  – and these relations may only become more strained post-May. 

Should he become first minister, Rhun ap Iorwerth has committed to being more outspoken than his predecessor on disagreements with the UK government over further devolution and ‘fair funding’ for Wales, while John Swinney’s plan to vote on a second independence referendum will bring him into conflict with Starmer, who has ruled out a second referendum during his premiership.

Keir Starmer entered office in 2024 promising a “reset” of UK-devolved relations – but with a Sinn Féin first minister in Northern Ireland, John Swinney expected to be re-elected as first minister in Scotland, and Rhun ap Iorwerth likely to lead the next government in Wales, the prime minister now faces the possibility of nationalist first ministers in each devolved nation. This alone would place symbolic strain on the union, while increased “Celtic bloc” cooperation could challenge the UK government on issues including taxation, welfare and rejoining the EU. Constitutional questions around the devolved nations were never going to go away quietly, but it seems far more likely that they will only get louder in the years ahead.