Scottish independence

On 18 September 2014, the Scottish electorate voted in a referendum to reject independence by a margin of 55% to 45%. Over a decade on, Scotland remains divided on the question of its constitutional future: nearly half of voters consistently say that they would vote yes if a second referendum were held.  

Scottish voters have elected a pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament at every election since 2011, although the Scottish National Party (SNP) suffered a setback in the 2024 UK general election, when it was reduced from 48 to 9 MPs. In May 2026, the SNP won a fifth successive Scottish Parliament election, but fell short of the 65 seats required to win an outright majority.

Where do the Scottish parties stand on independence?

There are two pro-independence parties represented in the Scottish parliament: the SNP and the Scottish Greens, who, as of May 2026, jointly won hold a majority of 73 out of 129 seats in the Scottish Parliament, although one SNP MSP was subsequently elected Presiding Officer, requiring him to relinquish his party affiliation.

Ahead of the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections, the SNP set out plans for its first 100 days of government, describing independence as "the heart of the SNPs offer". The party pledged that, if elected, it would "bring forward a vote in the Scottish Parliament, on the first sitting day after a new government takes office to approve the development of a section 30 order granting Scotland the power to hold an independence referendum." ³⁴ SNP, ‘First 100 days of a new SNP government’, 27 April 2026, https://s3-eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/www.snp.org/uploads/2026/04/2026-04-25-SNP-100-Days-document-NO-CROPS.pdf  A section 30 order is a type of secondary legislation made under the Scotland Act 1998 which alters the Scottish Parliament’s legislative authority (either temporarily or permanently), it can therefore grant the Scottish parliament the power to legislate for an independence referendum – something which is usually “reserved” to Westminster. ³⁵ Torrance D, ‘Scottish Devolution: Section 30 Orders’, House of Commons Library, 25 May 2026, https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8738/

As promised, on 26 May 2026, the first sitting day of the Scottish Parliament after the new SNP government took office, the first minister brought forward a vote on a motion that included a call “on the UK Government to make a Section 30 order under the Scotland Act 1998 to devolve the powers to the Scottish Parliament to hold a referendum on Scottish independence”. ³⁶ Scottish Parliament, ‘Motion S7M-00105: Ambitious for Scotland’, 20 May 2026, https://www.parliament.scot/chamber-and-committees/votes-and-motions/S7M-00105  The motion was backed with 72 to 55 votes . However, without UK government backing, the Scottish Parliament has no power to implement this order. 

In their 2026 manifesto, the Scottish Greens similarly pledged to initiate the section 30 order process, and to call for "the devolution of the remaining powers reserved to Westminster", including power over taxation, energy regulation and foreign affairs, as well as the power to hold a referendum. The the party has also stated that a second independence referendum should take place during the next parliamentary session. ³⁷ Scottish Greens, ‘Independence and Scotland’s future’, https://greens.scot/our-future/independence-and-scotland-s-future

In their 2026 Scottish election manifestos, the Scottish Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat parties all reiterated their opposition to a second independence referendum. Reform UK also opposed a second referendum, arguing "rational unionists and realistic nationalists" should unite to bring the independence debate to an end. Speaking at an Institute for Government event, Reform UK leader in Scotland, Malcolm Offord, called for constitutional questions to be put aside in Scotland for a decade. ³⁸ Institute for Government, ‘In conversation with Malcolm Offord, Lord Offord of Garvel, Leader of Reform UK Scotland’, 16 March 2026, https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/lord-malcolm-offord-leader-reform-uk-scotland

Does the Scottish public support independence?

Opinion poll data shows that Scotland is almost evenly divided on the question of independence.  

Support for independence has fluctuated over recent years, without either Yes or No ever establishing a decisive lead in the polls. Support for independence was at its highest in 2020 but fell back below 50% prior to the May 2021 Scottish parliament election. Polls suggest support for independence has increased by a few percentage points since September 2024. 

Most polls have replicated the Yes/No question asked in 2014. However, a few polls have used a Remain/Leave question similar to the one asked in the EU referendum, and these have typically shown that there is lower support for independence when it is framed as ‘leaving the UK’. 

Does the Scottish parliament have the power to hold another independence referendum?

The Scottish parliament cannot hold another independence referendum without the UK Parliament passing legislation to enable this. 

The legislative powers of the Scottish parliament are set out in the Scotland Act 1998. This legislation specifies that the Scottish parliament cannot pass legislation that relates to various “reserved” matters including “the Union of the Kingdoms of Scotland and England." ³⁹ Scotland Act 1998, c.46, s5

In 2014, the power to hold the first referendum was transferred to the Scottish parliament after agreement on the terms of the vote was reached between the UK and Scottish governments. ⁴⁰ ‘Agreement between the United Kingdom Government and the Scottish Government on a referendum for independence for Scotland’, 15, October 2012, assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/313612/scottish_referendum_agree.  The UK parliament passed a ‘section 30 order’ which empowered the Scottish parliament to legislate for the referendum. However, this power was devolved on a temporary basis: the order specified that the vote must take place before 31 December 2014, following which the power expired.

In June 2022, Nicola Sturgeon announced her intention to hold a referendum on 19 October 2023 and asked the Lord Advocate, Scotland’s highest law officer, to seek the Supreme Court’s ruling on whether it would be within devolved legislative competence. ⁴¹ Scottish government, ‘Next steps in independence referendum set out’, www.gov.scot/news/next-steps-in-independence-referendum-set-out/.  The Supreme Court ruled in November 2022 that the Scottish government’s proposed independence referendum bill was outside the Scottish parliament’s powers.

The court assessed whether the referendum bill would “relate to” the union in terms of its “purpose and effect”. Its judgement stated “it is plain that a bill which makes provision for a referendum on independence – on ending the union – has more than a loose or consequential connection with the union.” ⁴² Reference by the Lord Advocate of devolution issues under paragraph 34 of Schedule 6 to the Scotland Act 1998, Supreme Court, para 82, www.supremecourt.uk/cases/uksc-2022-0098.html.

What rules would govern how an independence referendum would be held?

If a second referendum were to be held, the Referendums (Scotland) Act 2020 would set the rules for holding the poll, unless otherwise legislated for. The Act broadly replicates the legal framework for referendums held by the UK government, as set out in the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000.

The Electoral Commission would be given a statutory role, overseeing the conduct of the poll and the regulation of referendum campaigners, including designating lead referendum campaigners and testing the “intelligibility” of the proposed referendum question.

The Referendums (Scotland) Act 2020 provides that the franchise for any future referendum (on any subject) held by the Scottish government will be the same as the franchise for Scottish parliament elections.

Following the Scottish Elections (Franchise and Representation) Act 2020, this means that anyone aged 16 or over, who is legally resident in Scotland regardless of nationality, and who is on the Scottish local government electoral register, would be entitled to vote. The 2020 legislation also extended the right to vote to prisoners serving sentences of less than 12 months.

When could a second referendum on Scottish independence take place?

Any future referendum would require agreement between the UK and Scottish governments on its terms and timing.  

The first independence referendum took place three years and four months after the SNP won a majority in the 2011 Scottish Parliament election. 

If Scotland voted Yes to independence, what would happen next?

A Yes vote in a referendum accepted as legitimate by both sides would be followed by negotiations between the UK and Scottish governments on the terms of separation, including on how to divide the assets and liabilities of the UK state and on the future relationship between the two new countries.

The SNP plan is for an independent Scotland to re-join the EU. As the UK has already left the EU, an independent Scotland would need to apply to join under Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union after first completing its separation from the rest of the UK. Re-entry would require accession negotiations and the consent of all 27 EU member states. 

An independent Scotland would also have to decide which currency to use. In 2019, SNP party conference voted to replace Sterling with a new Scottish currency “as soon as is practicable”. A policy paper published by the Scottish Government in October 2025 confirms that Scotland would continue to use the pound sterling for a period, before transitioning to the Scottish pound. ⁴³ Scottish Government, ‘A Fresh Start with Independence’, 8 October 2025, https://www.gov.scot/publications/fresh-start-independence/  

Retaining Sterling would minimise disruption to trade between Scotland and the rest of the UK, but Scotland would be left without control of its own monetary policy, meaning it could not set interest rates or use quantitative easing to respond to economic shocks.

As a member of the EU, Scottish trade with the rest of the UK would be governed by the same rules as apply to trade between Great Britain and the EU. This would create new barriers to trade across the Anglo-Scottish border.

An independent Scotland would also face difficult choices about spending priorities. Analysis by the Scottish government published in August 2025 found that Scotland’s notional government deficit stood at 11.6% of GDP in 2024/25. ⁴⁴ Scottish Government, Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS), 2024-25, August 2025, https://www.gov.scot/publications/government-expenditure-revenue-scotland-2024-25/documents/   That meant that public spending per person in Scotland was around £4,700 higher than tax revenue per person.