Fixing public services: Schools

Primary school attainment has fallen and educational disparities have increased

Primary school attainment is below pre-pandemic levels

Primary school attainment has improved slowly since external assessments restarted after the disruption of the Covid pandemic, but remains below pre-pandemic levels. Between 2010 and the onset of the pandemic there was a trend of increasing performance at key stage 2 (KS2), covering pupils at the end of primary school, with 65% of pupils meeting the expected standard in reading, writing and maths in 2019. KS2 assessments resumed in 2022 after cancellations in 2020 and 2021, and in the same year the Conservative government set an ambitious target for 90% of pupils to meet the expected standard in the three subjects by 2030 ¹¹⁰ HM Government, Levelling Up the United Kingdom, GOV.UK, 2022, p. 187, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1052706/Levelling_Up_WP_HRES.pdf . Since the pandemic, results have increased from 59% of pupils reaching the expected standard in 2022 to 61% in 2024.

GCSE assessments continued throughout the pandemic, but exams were replaced by teacher grading of pupils’ performance in 2020 and 2021. External assessment resumed in 2022 and 2023, but with some grading protections in place so that results did not drop below 2019 levels. While, therefore, some caution should be exercised in directly comparing pre- and post-pandemic performance, the share of students achieving grade 4 or above in maths and English in 2023 was similar to that in 2019.*
 

^{*Additional evidence on secondary school attainment presents a mixed picture. The National Reference Test found little statistically significant change in overall English and maths attainment between 2017 and 2023. For further details see National Foundation for Educational Research, National Reference Test Results Digest 2023, 2023, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1180184/NRT_Results_Digest_2023.pdf. But the 2022 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) revealed a decline in 15-year-olds’ maths and reading scores from 2018, although England’s scores remained above the OECD average in these subjects. For further details, see Department for Education, PISA 2022: National report for England, 2023, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/656dc3321104cf0013fa742f/PISA_2022_England_National_Report.pdf}

Disadvantage gaps have grown substantially

At both KS2 and KS4, the gap in attainment between disadvantaged pupils and their non-disadvantaged peers has returned to levels not seen in more than 10 years. The primary school (KS2) attainment gap had narrowed nearly every year in the lead-up to the pandemic. Now, even with a slight reduction between 2022 and 2023, it is at its widest point since 2012. ¹¹³ GOV.UK, ‘Academic year 2022/23: key stage 2 attainment’, 2023, retrieved 3 July 2024, https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/key-stage-2-attainment/2022-23  The secondary school (KS4) attainment gap meanwhile broadly narrowed between 2011 and 2017 before plateauing. It then increased during the pandemic and has continued to increase since external exams resumed. ¹¹⁴ GOV.UK, ‘Academic year 2022/23: key stage 4 performance’, 2024, retrieved 3 July 2024, https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/key-stage-4-performance/2022-23

The widening disadvantage gap partly reflects that schooling for more affluent pupils was less disrupted during the pandemic due to better access to remote learning technology and resources. ¹²⁸ Atkins G, Kavanagh A, Shepheard M, Pope T and Tetlow G, Performance Tracker 2021, Institute for Government, 2021, p. 96, www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/report/performance-tracker-2021  But it may also stem from changes to the allocation of school funding made from 2018/19. While funding allocations remained progressive, ensuring that schools serving more deprived communities receive more per head, the Education Policy Institute, in its analysis of changes up to 2021/22, concluded that “the link between funding and pupil need is being weakened”, on average benefiting schools in more affluent areas. ¹²⁹ Andrews J, ‘Analysis: school funding allocations 2021–22’, Education Policy Institute, 7 August 2020, retrieved 3 July 2024, https://epi.org.uk/publications-and-research/school-funding-allocations-2021-22  (From 2023/24, the DfE increased disadvantage-related funding in the main schools funding grant, which is likely to have started to reverse this trend. ¹³⁰ Department for Education, The national funding formulae for schools and high needs, GOV.UK, 19 July 2022, retrieved 4 July 2024, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/62d679d98fa8f50c0a8a3ffc/2023-24_NFF_Policy_Document_.pdf )

Catch-up measures have had limited effect

The decline in KS2 attainment and the widening of the disadvantage gap have come despite catch-up efforts from the government. The Conservative government committed £3.5 billion for catch-up measures in schools between 2020–21 and 2023–24 to reduce the gap, of which the three largest components were a ‘recovery premium’, the National Tutoring Programme (NTP) and a ‘catch-up premium’. While the recovery and catch-up premiums were paid directly to schools on a per-pupil basis, the NTP was designed to subsidise academic support to pupils who had fallen behind their peers. ¹³¹ Comptroller and Auditor General, Education Recovery in Schools in England, Session 2022–23, HC 1081, National Audit Office, 2023, p. 2, www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/education-recovery-in-schools-in-england.pdf

The NTP has run between November 2020 and the end of the 2023–24 academic year. By January 2024, the NTP had delivered 5.3 million courses, ¹³² GOV.UK, ‘Academic year 2023/24: National Tutoring Programme’, 2023, retrieved 3 July 2024, https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/national-tutoring-programme  against an initial target of 6 million over the life of the programme. ¹³³ The Education Hub, ‘How tutoring is working in schools’, GOV.UK, 26 October 2022, https://educationhub.blog.gov.uk/2022/10/26/how-tutoring-is-working-in-schools  While this means the overall target is likely to be achieved, the Department for Education (DfE) has clawed back £248 million of unused allocations from 2021–22 ¹³⁴ Booth S, ‘£114m tutoring cash clawed back from half of schools’, Schools Week, 20 April 2023, https://schoolsweek.co.uk/114m-tutoring-cash-clawed-back-from-half-of-schools  and 2022–23, ¹³⁵ Booth S, ‘£134m unspent tutoring cash clawed back and will fund teacher pay deal’, Schools Week, 16 May 2024, https://schoolsweek.co.uk/134m-unspent-tutoring-cash-clawed-back-and-will-fund-teacher-pay-deal  around a quarter of the NTP’s total £1.1bn funding, diverting the 2022–23 allocations towards teacher pay awards.

There is some evidence that the NTP has boosted attainment, with an evaluation of the programme’s second year finding that taking part in the main strand of the NTP was associated with small improvements in KS2 and KS4 maths outcomes, and some limited evidence that it was associated with improvements in English outcomes. ¹³⁶ Lucas M, Moore E, Morton C, Staunton R and Welbourne S, Independent Evaluation of the National Tutoring Programme Year 2: Impact evaluation, Department for Education, 2023, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6530d24692895c0010dcba04/Independent_Evaluation_of_the_National_Tutoring_Programme_Year_2_Impact_Evalu…  Separately, in research visits to 63 schools between September 2021 and July 2022, Ofsted found strong tutoring quality in more than half of the schools visited, but found that many were not adequately assessing tutoring’s impact on pupils’ attainment. ¹³⁷ Ofsted, ‘Independent review of tutoring in schools: phase 1 findings’, GOV.UK, 2023, retrieved 3 July 2024, www.gov.uk/government/publications/independent-review-of-tutoring-in-schools-and-16-to-19-providers/independent-review-of-tutoring-in-schools-phase-1…

Questions have been raised over prioritisation under the NTP. Ofsted found that the resumption of external exams from 2022 led some schools to focus tutoring resources on KS4 pupils near key GCSE grade boundaries, despite identifying younger pupils as being in greatest need of catch-up support. ¹³⁸ Ofsted, ‘Independent review of tutoring in schools: phase 2 findings’, GOV.UK, 2023, retrieved 3 July 2024, www.gov.uk/government/publications/independent-review-of-tutoring-in-schools-and-16-to-19-providers/independent-review-of-tutoring-in-schools-phase-2…  In a report published in February 2023, the National Audit Office, meanwhile, noted that there was limited evidence on how schools were using NTP funding and the extent to which this was targeted at disadvantaged pupils. ¹³⁹ Comptroller and Auditor General, Education Recovery in Schools in England, Session 2022–23, HC 1081, National Audit Office, 2023, p. 2, www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/education-recovery-in-schools-in-england.pdf

High pupil absence rates have hampered efforts to boost attainment 

Hampering efforts to make up for lost learning, pupil absence rates have been very high since the reopening of schools. Persistent absence, defined as pupils missing at least 10% of school sessions, sharply increased after the pandemic and has remained at elevated levels. In autumn term 2023, 15% of primary pupils were persistently absent, up from 11% in autumn 2019. In secondary schools, the figures were 23% and 15% respectively. ¹⁴⁰ GOV.UK, ‘Autumn term 2023/24: pupil absence in schools in England’, 2024, retrieved 3 July 2024, https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/pupil-absence-in-schools-in-england/2023-24-autumn-term

Several factors have been identified as contributing to the rise in persistent absence, including poorer mental wellbeing among pupils ¹⁴³ Campbell D, ‘Nearly a third of secondary pupils avoid school because of anxiety, survey finds’, The Guardian, 2 February 2024, www.theguardian.com/society/2024/feb/02/almost-three-in-10-secondary-pupils-in-uk-avoiding-school-because-of-anxiety  and shifts in parental attitudes regarding regular school attendance. ¹⁴⁴ Clarke V, ‘Parents more willing to challenge rules – Ofsted’, BBC News, 23 November 2023, www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-67475347

Efforts to reverse the fall in KS2 results and the widening KS2 and KS4 disadvantage gaps will therefore require a full-spectrum response from the new education secretary, encompassing action on schools funding, catch-up, mental health support, attendance and more.

SEND spending threatens the financial sustainability of councils but many children are not receiving the support they need

The number of children with special educational needs and disabilities is increasing sharply

The number of children with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) is rising and they are becoming a growing share of the overall pupil population. The number of pupils with education, health and care plans (EHCPs), which provide a detailed plan of support for children with higher needs, has continued to increase. Since their introduction in 2014,* the number of pupils with EHCPs has risen from 240,000 (2.8% of all pupils) to 434,000 (4.8% of all pupils) in 2024 – an increase of 85%. The proportion of pupils receiving wider SEND support without an EHCP has also been rising steadily since 2017, representing 13.6% of all pupils in 2024.

^{*EHCPs replaced statements of special educational needs (SEN) and were phased in over several years. Numbers for 2014 are for SEN statements.}

Local authorities are buckling under the soaring cost of SEND and some are limiting provision

While schools cover the initial costs of support for each pupil with SEND, local authorities are responsible for covering additional costs to enable a pupil or student with high needs to take part in education and learning. The total value of this ‘top-up’ funding by local authorities has risen in real terms by 68% since 2015/16. ¹⁴⁶ GOV.UK, ‘Financial year 2022–23: LA and school expenditure’, 2024, retrieved 3 July 2024, https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/la-and-school-expenditure  Growing numbers of pupils with SEND are being placed in independent special schools, where the costs are particularly high. While top-up SEND spending on state schools has risen by 64% since 2015/16, the increase over the period for independent schools is 78%.

SEND has consequently become one of the leading drivers of financial pressures for local authorities. Two thirds of local authorities have deficits on the part of their budgets reserved for schools spending, largely due to the cost of meeting their statutory duties to those with SEND. Across these local authorities, the cumulative deficit totalled £1.6bn as of March 2023. ¹⁵⁷ Nye P, ‘SEND spending needs reform to stop local authorities going bust’, Institute for Government, 26 January 2024, www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/send-spending-reform-local-authorities  Since 2020, the government has allowed local authorities to hold schools budget deficits off their balance sheets under a special allowance. But this provision is due to expire in March 2026, and one council has warned that it will have to issue a section 114 notice* as soon as December 2024 if this statutory override is not extended. ¹⁵⁸ Carey A, ‘Council warns of likely section 114 notice if dedicated schools grant statutory override not extended’, Local Government Lawyer, 17 January 2024, www.localgovernmentlawyer.co.uk/education-law/394-education-news/56141-council-warns-of-likely-section-114-notice-if-dedicated-schools-grant-statutor…

To limit escalating costs, local authorities are delaying appropriate provision for children or withholding it. ¹⁵⁹ Jemal J and Kenley A, Wasting, Money, Wasting Potential: The cost of SEND tribunals, Pro Bono Economics, 2023, www.probonoeconomics.com/Handlers/Download.ashx?IDMF=93a69e8a-fe29-4567-b594-9ad874f1a348  Growing disagreements over SEND provision (and in particular over EHCPs) have led more parents to take legal action against their local authority. HM Courts and Tribunals Service tribunals registered 14,000 SEND appeals in the 2022–23 school year, of which 86% were connected to councils’ refusal to issue an EHCP or disputes over the plans’ contents. ¹⁶⁰ Ministry of Justice, ‘8. Annual Special Educational Needs and Disability (SEND) statistics’, GOV.UK, 2023, retrieved 3 July 2024, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/tribunals-statistics-quarterly-july-to-september-2023/tribunal-statistics-quarterly-july-to-september-2023#annual-sp…  Of the 8,000 cases decided by tribunals in 2022–23, just 2% ruled against the family. ¹⁶¹ Ministry of Justice, ‘8. Annual Special Educational Needs and Disability (SEND) statistics’, GOV.UK, 2023, retrieved 3 July 2024, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/tribunals-statistics-quarterly-july-to-september-2023/tribunal-statistics-quarterly-july-to-september-2023#annual-sp…

In March 2023, the Conservative government published a SEND and alternative provision (AP) improvement plan, outlining steps to improve experiences of the SEND system, standardise SEND provision nationally and make mainstream education more inclusive. ¹⁶² HM Government, Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND) and Alternative Provision (AP) Improvement Plan, GOV.UK, 2023, p. 8, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/63ff39d28fa8f527fb67cb06/SEND_and_alternative_provision_improvement_plan.pdf  It remains too early to observe whether these will succeed in reducing disagreements between parents and local authorities or in relieving financial pressures, if the new government continues with them.

The DfE is also operating a ‘safety valve’ scheme, under which local authorities receive funding to clear their deficits in return for taking action to reduce future SEND spending; for example, by making less use of independent provision. To date, 38 councils have entered safety-valve agreements with the DfE. ¹⁶³ Department for Education, ‘Dedicated schools grant: very high deficit intervention’, GOV.UK, 19 March 2021, retrieved 3 July 2024, www.gov.uk/government/publications/dedicated-schools-grant-very-high-deficit-intervention

The safety-valve programme is controversial, with reports of local authorities attempting to limit EHCP numbers. ¹⁶⁴ Roberts J, ‘Revealed: what government safety valve deals “really mean”’, Tes Magazine, 10 May 2024, www.tes.com/magazine/news/general/revealed-what-government-safety-valve-deals-really-mean-schools-send  Moreover, several councils taking part in the programme are reported to remain at risk of being unable to produce balanced budgets, despite the extra funding from the DfE. ¹⁶⁵ Hill J, ‘Third of “safety-valve councils” face bankruptcy’, Schools Week, 7 June 2024, https://schoolsweek.co.uk/third-of-safety-valve-councils-face-bankruptcy  This makes this one of the most urgent, and thorniest, problems in the new secretary of state’s in-tray.

 ^{*This is a report from the council’s finance officer that they believe that the authority is about to incur expenditure that is unlawful according to the Local Government Finance Act 1988. This is usually because they expect their expenditure to exceed their income for a particular financial year.}

Secondary school teacher recruitment is in crisis

Teacher training targets are being missed by a large margin

The number of full-time equivalent teachers increased slightly in 2023 to 468,700, a record high. Despite this, initial teacher training recruitment is at crisis point. The total number of postgraduate entrants into training fell below 22,000 in 2023–24, compared with 29,000 in 2019–20, the last pre-pandemic year, and is just 62% of the annual overall target. ¹⁶⁶ GOV.UK, ‘Academic year 2023/24: initial teacher training census’, 2023, retrieved 3 July 2024, https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/initial-teacher-training-census/2023-24

The situation is especially concerning at secondary level. Entrants into postgraduate secondary training dropped below 50% of the target for the 2023–24 school year. There is considerable variation between subject areas: physics is one of the worst performing, with just 17% of the target met, while recruitment for maths, another STEM* subject, is 63% of the target. ¹⁷⁴ GOV.UK, ‘Academic year 2023/24: initial teacher training census’, 2023, retrieved 3 July 2024, https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/initial-teacher-training-census/2023-24  To incentivise recruitment, from September 2024, chemistry, computing, maths and physics teachers working in high- disadvantage schools will receive an additional £6,000 payment in each of the first five years of their career.** ¹⁷⁵ Department for Education, ‘Teachers to get up to £6000 extra to teach vital subjects’, GOV.UK, 23 April 2024, www.gov.uk/government/news/teachers-to-get-up-to-6000-extra-to-teach-vital-subjects

^{*Science, technology, engineering and maths.}

^{**Primary school recruitment has improved, with entrants hitting 96% of the 2023–24 target. This has been aided by the target being lower than in previous years, as the number of primary school pupils decreases.}

Teachers’ pay is substantially lower in real terms than in 2010

Several factors influence entry rates into teaching, including flexibility of working hours, perceptions of workload and pupil behaviour, and a competitive salary. ¹⁷⁶ Education Committee, Teacher Recruitment, Training and Retention, UK Parliament, 17 May 2024, https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5804/cmselect/cmeduc/119/summary.html  Of these, salaries are the one over which the government has the most direct control, and where it could start to make changes most quickly. ¹⁷⁷ Worth J and Tang S, ‘Next government needs long-term pay strategy that will help teacher supply challenge’, National Foundation for Educational Research, 17 May 2024, www.nfer.ac.uk/blogs/next-government-needs-long-term-pay-strategy-that-will-help-teacher-supply-challenge

Staffing costs form the largest component of school spending, at around 80% of the total. ¹⁷⁸ Department for Education, Schools’ Costs: 2022 to 2024, GOV.UK, 2023, p. 3, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1137908/Schools__costs_2022_to_2024.pdf  After a one-year freeze in 2021–22, teachers received a 5% pay increase in 2022–23 (with a higher award for early-career teachers) and a 6.5% pay increase in 2023–24. The 2023–24 pay award came after eight days of strike action by members of the National Education Union, with other teaching unions also balloting their members on strike action. ¹⁷⁹ Standley N, ‘Teacher strikes in England end as all four unions accept deal’, BBC News, 31 July 2023, www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-66360677

Despite these two pay awards being more generous than those for staff in some other public services, the real-terms value of teacher pay has fallen, with median teacher salaries in 2023 13.3% below 2010 levels. Pay freezes in 2011–12 and 2012–13, consecutive below-inflation increases until 2017–18 and elevated inflation from 2021 all contributed to this decline between 2010 and 2023. Teachers in leadership roles except headteachers had the greatest real-terms fall at 13.7%, while pay for classroom teachers fell by 11.4% and pay for headteachers fell by 9.0%. ¹⁸⁰ GOV.UK, ‘Academic year 2023/24: median teacher pay using teaching pension scheme data’, 2024, retrieved 3 July 2024, https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/median-teacher-pay-using-teacher-pension-scheme-data  

The pay award for the 2024–25 academic year has not yet been finalised, with a decision due to be made by the new government. The previous government had called for a “more sustainable” pay increase in its evidence submission to the School Teachers’ Review Body; while it did not specify a figure, it is likely to be lower than unions’ demands. ¹⁹⁸ Department for Education, Government Evidence to the STRB, GOV.UK, 2024, p. 29, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65e0a4cb2f2b3b00117cd7ae/Government_evidence_to_the_STRB.pdf

In its submission, the NAHT union advocated an increase “in double digits” to exceed the increase of 7.3% in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during 2023 and to begin to restore real-terms pay to 2010 levels. ¹⁹⁹ NAHT, NAHT Evidence Submission to the School Teachers’ Review Body’s (STRB) 34th Remit, February 2024, https://dmscdn.vuelio.co.uk/publicitem/202df3b2-50c1-44f9-9dbf-77a60c770d81  Other teaching unions also raised restoration of pay to this level. ²⁰⁰ ASCL, ‘ASCL’s submission of evidence to the STRB 34th remit’, 1 March 2024, www.ascl.org.uk/Our-view/Consultation-responses/STRB-34th-remit ^{, 201} National Education Union, ‘STRB supplementary evidence’, 20 March 2024, https://neu.org.uk/latest/library/strb-supplementary-evidence-2024  The unions also expect pay awards to be fully funded – that is, not coming out of schools’ existing budgets (set in 2021 based on pay awards of around 3% a year). This gives two possible grounds on which the unions may find the eventual pay award unacceptable.

School buildings are in poor condition due to years of underfunding 

The RAAC crisis is only one indictment of the condition of many school buildings 

The DfE ordered 104 schools in England to close just before the start of the 2023 autumn term after discovering reinforced autoclaved aerated concrete (RAAC) on their premises. ²⁰² Department for Education, ‘New guidance for schools impacted by RAAC’, GOV.UK, 31 August 2023, www.gov.uk/government/news/new-guidance-for-schools-impacted-by-raac  Approximately 100,000 students were affected by school closures, with contingency measures ranging from a delayed start to the term, ²⁰³ Department for Education, ‘Government confirms plans to permanently remove RAAC from all schools and colleges in England’, GOV.UK, 8 February 2024, www.gov.uk/government/news/government-confirms-plans-to-permanently-remove-raac-from-all-schools-and-colleges-in-england  lessons taking place in temporary classrooms ²⁰⁴ Weale S, ‘From field to classrooms in six weeks: RAAC Essex school’s new home’, The Guardian, 14 October 2023, www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/oct/14/field-classrooms-six-weeks-raac-hit-essex-school-new-home  or marquees, ²⁰⁵ Hanspal J, ‘School concrete crisis: Ascot school opens with marquees’, BBC News, 6 September 2023, www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-berkshire-66719013  and virtual learning. ²⁰⁶ Perera N and Hodge L, ‘RAAC in schools: what do we know and what next?’, Education Policy Institute, 5 September 2023, https://epi.org.uk/publications-and-research/blog-raac-in-schools

By February 2024, the DfE had identified RAAC in 234 educational settings, of which 119 schools will require extensive refurbishment or rebuilding to remove the faulty concrete. ²⁰⁷ Department for Education, ‘Government plans to permanently remove RAAC from all schools and colleges in England’, GOV.UK, 8 February 2024, www.gov.uk/government/news/government-confirms-plans-to-permanently-remove-raac-from-all-schools-and-colleges-in-england  These schools subsequently received funding under the Schools Rebuilding Programme, while the DfE provided individual grants to the remainder to cover removal costs. ²⁰⁸ Department for Education, ‘List of education settings with confirmed RAAC and route to RAAC removal’, 2024, retrieved 3 July 2024, https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https%3A%2F%2Fassets.publishing.service.gov.uk%2Fmedia%2F65c4903a3f634b001242c696%2FConfirmed_raac_…

Independently of RAAC, concerns have been raised about the condition of the school estate, including mould and cold classrooms. ²⁰⁹ Norden J, ‘Majority of teachers say learning hit by poor school buildings’, Tes Magazine, 6 April 2024, www.tes.com/magazine/news/general/teachers-say-learning-affected-by-poor-school-buildings ^{, 210} Sheikh R, ‘Crumbling schools plagued by leaks and cold, BBC finds’, BBC News, 22 January 2024, www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68021766 The DfE has acknowledged the detrimental impact that poor conditions can have on pupil outcomes. ²¹¹ Comptroller and Auditor General, Condition of School Buildings, Session 2022–23, HC 1516, National Audit Office, retrieved 3 July 2024, p. 2, www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/condition-of-school-buildings.pdf

Capital funding has been less than required

Insufficient capital funding has contributed to a deterioration of the school estate. DfE capital spending was cut sharply in real terms in the 2010s and remains substantially below the level in 2007/08. Since 2012, the first year for which data is available, the UK has consistently spent a lower proportion of gross domestic product (GDP) on capital for education than other OECD countries. ²¹² Pope T, Tetlow G and Pattison G, Capital spending in public services, Institute for Government, 26 June 2024, pp. 11–12, www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/capital-spending-public-services

On the latest figures available, repairs and improvements of £11.4bn would be needed to return all elements of the school estate to a good condition. But the true figure is likely to be considerably higher, given this finding was based on a data collection exercise carried out between 2017 and 2019, and therefore does not reflect the recent identification of widespread RAAC problems. ²¹³ Department for Education, Condition of School Buildings Survey: Key findings, GOV.UK, 2021, p.4, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/989912/Condition_of_School_Buildings_Survey_CDC1_-_ke…

As part of the 2020 spending review process, the DfE calculated that it would require £5.3bn in annual funding for school maintenance and repairs plus rebuilding or refurbishment of the most high-risk school buildings, but received an average of just £3.1bn annually from the Treasury for this for each of 2021/22 and 2022/23.* ²¹⁴ Comptroller and Auditor General, Condition of School Buildings, Session 2022–23, HC 1516, National Audit Office, 2023, p.6, www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/condition-of-school-buildings.pdf

 ^{*Comparable figures for 2023/24 and subsequent years – focusing solely on the school estate – are not in the public domain.}

In 2020, the DfE launched the School Rebuilding Programme, intended to replace “poor-condition and ageing school buildings” over a 10-year period, with 513 projects announced by February 2024. ²¹⁶ Department for Education, ‘School rebuilding programme: schools in the programme’, GOV.UK, 16 December 2022, www.gov.uk/government/publications/school-rebuilding-programme-schools-in-the-programme

But if the decline in the school estate is to be reversed, capital spending will need to be considerably greater than the £6bn that the DfE has planned for 2024/25. Insufficient capital funding – covering both maintenance and rebuilds – is likely to lead to further structural deterioration, a worsening learning environment and possible safety issues at schools.