Managing violent unrest poses challenges at every turn for policing – and for the new government

Horror at the awful attack on a children’s holiday club in Southport this week, which left three young children dead and many others injured, has been felt across the country. It has also served as a trigger for unrest in several areas – clearly influenced by misinformation on social media suggesting the suspect arrested was a Muslim immigrant known to security services – in London, Southport and elsewhere.

This unrest has been connected with the English Defence League (EDL) and the far-right more widely and, with more rallies planned, the risk of further violence or even riots has not subsided. The prime minister has criticised “an assault on the rule of law and execution of justice” and vowed to respond. The situation is not yet a crisis. But it does pose a major challenge to the new government.

People expect a strong response from the government

In the aftermath of an unforeseen and terrible event, people expect the government to show leadership – particularly the prime minister and responsible secretary of state, in this case the home secretary. Heckling of Keir Starmer as he laid a wreath in Southport demonstrates a community’s anger and frustration.  

Starmer’s has recognised this anger and the urge for action. The prime minister announced a ‘national capability’ to tackle violent disorder across police forces, focused on people who travel to take part in unrest. While this may support policing the unrest, the immediate impact is likely to be limited: there is not much evidence suggesting people travelled long distances to participate in the incidents so far,  ²⁸ The Economist, ‘A riot in Southport shows how the British far right is changing’, 31 July 2024, retrieved 2 August 2024, https://www.economist.com/britain/2024/07/31/a-riot-in-southport-shows-how-the-british-far-right-is-changing  or in the riots in 2011.  ²⁹ Drury J, Stott C, Ball R, et al. ‘A social identity model of riot diffusion: From injustice to empowerment in the 2011 London riots’, European Journal of Social Psychology, 2020, Vol 50, Issue 3, pp.646–61, https://doi.org/10.1002/ejsp.2650  But there is a limit to what the government can do in the short term.

Home secretary Yvette Cooper is in a difficult position. Police forces in England and Wales are operationally independent, so she doesn't have a say in the on-the-ground response. But she is likely to get the blame if there is ongoing unrest. Cooper needs to maintain the support of the police and avoid public criticism; that was what ended Suella Braverman’s tenure as home secretary.  ³⁰ Markson T, ‘Braverman sacked as home secretary after policing row’, Civil Service World, 13 November 2023, www.civilserviceworld.com/professions/article/braverman-sacked-as-sunak-begins-reshuffle  At the same time, she must hold chief constables to account for any failings.  ³¹ Vinter R, ‘‘We got failed by the police’: how veterans of Leeds riots stepped in to defuse disorder’, The Guardian, 28 July 2024, retrieved 2 August 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/jul/28/leeds-riots-harehills-disorder-muslim-men-children-care; West Yorkshire Police, ‘Statement: Serious disorder, Harehills, Leeds’, 19 July 2024, retrieved 2 August 2024, https://www.westyorkshire.police.uk/news-appeals/statement-serious-disorder-harehills-leeds-0

Managing unrest and disorder is one of the most difficult aspects of policing

For police leaders, the challenge is to balance competing pressures: avoiding being heavy-handed, which evidence suggests can inflame violence,  ³² Klein A, ‘Policing as a causal factor – a fresh view on riots and social unrest’, Safe Communities, Vol 11 No 1, pp.17–23, https://doi.org/10.1108/17578041211200074; Drury J, Stott C, Ball R, Barr D, Bell L, Reicher S and Neville F, ‘How riots spread between cities: Introducing the police pathway‘, Political Psychology, Vol 43 Issue 4, pp.651–69, https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12786  without being seen to abandon communities to rioters or fail to maintain law and order. Recent unrest in Leeds saw the police decide to withdraw temporarily, but while this likely prevented the situation from escalating, the decision was also criticised by some external commentators and some local residents. 

This tension is particularly acute currently due to the low levels of trust and confidence in the police and perceptions of unequal treatment or ‘two-tier policing’ of different groups across the political spectrum. Recent polling found that less than half of people (49%) now think their local police force is doing a good or excellent job, down from 56% in 2019/20.  ³³ Office for National Statistics, ‘Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) estimates of personal and household crime, anti-social behaviour, and public perceptions, by police force area, year ending December 2023’, 2024, retrieved 8 July 2024, www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/adhocs/1994crimesurveyforenglandandwalescsewestimatesofpersonalandhouseholdcrimeantisocia… and ONS, ‘Crime in England and Wales: annual supplementary tables’, year ending March 2020, retrieved 8 July 2024, www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/datasets/crimeinenglandandwalesannualsupplementarytables   Trust and confidence in policing rely on positive interactions between police and communities: seeing officers on the beat, hearing from your neighbour that the police attended after their home was burgled, your friend saying the person who mugged them was arrested.  ³⁴ Bradford B and Jackson J, ‘Trust in the police: What is to be done?’, The Political Quarterly, 2024, https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-923X.13424 ; Awan I, Brookes M, Powell M and Stanwell S, ‘Understanding the public perception and satisfaction of a UK police constabulary’, Police Practice and Research, 2019, Vol 20, Issue 2, pp.172–84, https://doi.org/10.1080/15614263.2018.1428098  If these positive interactions are missing, people are less likely to have faith in the police to treat them fairly and respond to their needs, and are more likely to see them as outsiders rather than members of the community – all of which can cause unrest to escalate.  ³⁵ Platts-Fowler D, ‘Beyond the Riots’ – Policing in Partnership to Prevent and Contain Urban Unrest, 2016, PhD thesis, University of Leeds, retrieved 2 August 2024, https://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/16063

The police may also find their hands are somewhat tied by the prison capacity crisis, inherited from the last government. With only a few hundred places available in adult male prisons, the kind of mass arrests we saw after the riots in 2011 are unlikely to be possible. This limits the short-term options available to police to respond to the crisis, particularly if disorder shifts towards widespread looting as in 2011. While heavy-handed policing can make things worse, looters are often strategic in their choice of targets to reduce the chances of being caught  ³⁶ Baudains P, Braithwaite A and Johnson S D, ‘Target choice during extreme events: a discrete spatial choice model of the 2011 London riots’, Criminology, 2013, Vol 51, Issue 2, pp.251– 85, https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9125.12004  – if people think the police are unable to stop them, this might encourage more widespread offending.

Long-term fixes are possible, but tone and leadership are key for now

The violent reactions to the Southport attacks may be the reaction of just a few hundred people, perhaps in some cases opportunistically trying to further a wider agenda. But it is a clear reminder of the most urgent tasks facing the new government on crime and justice: restoring community trust in the police, working constructively with them to improve culture and standards, and resolving the prison capacity crisis. But these are all long-term processes.  

Over the coming days and weeks, questions will be asked of the home secretary, and the prime minister. Starmer’s has spoken of the “unimaginable pain” of the victims’ families. While he has made clear his ambition to tackle some of the root causes of criminal justice issues in the longer term, for now, the best he can do is set a tone of decency and respect and provide leadership in response to terrible events.