The government should use the appointment of a new national security adviser to set a new strategy

Gwyn Jenkins, who was appointed by Rishi Sunak earlier this year and due to start the beginning of next year, has been told his appointment has been rescinded. The focus in the press around this development has been on personalities, but more importantly, the space created by the restart of the recruitment process is a crucial opportunity to think more widely about national security strategy.

It might be a surprise to some that the NSA and the National Security Council (NSC) are relatively new constructs for the UK. Gordon Brown announced that there would be an NSC to co-ordinate advice and decisions on security issues in 2010, but this was officially set up later by the coalition government under David Cameron. Its roots are actually in the US and date back to 1947, when the US government's National Security Council was stood up in law alongside the CIA to combat the rising threat from the Soviet Union. 

So, although it may feel part of the furniture, there is no such long history in the UK. Before 2010 when the UK's NSC structures were created, the cabinet secretary, Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC) chair, Intelligence Co-ordinator and head of Civil Contingencies jointly provided the co-ordination and support that a prime minister needed on security issues.

The new NSA must have the complete trust of the prime minister

The role of the NSA has many facets. First, they must be able to command the confidence of the prime minister. He or she (though no woman has yet held the role) is the key adviser on security risks and crises (though not intelligence, which in the current model is the role of the chair of Joint Intelligence Committee). The gravity and complexity of decisions prime ministers are asked to make in national security means they want someone in post they trust completely. 

Turnover in the role has kept pace with turnover in the job they serve. Since 2020 alone, Mark Sedwill, Stephen Lovegrove and Tim Barrow have all occupied the post. It’s right that prime ministers get a choice, as they do with the appointments of cabinet secretary and their principal private secretary, given the important of those relationships. That’s why it would have been better to wait for the outcome of the election before appointing the next NSA. But that is different to the NSA becoming a political appointment – just as the relationship with the prime minister is critical to success, so is the relationship with the rest of the national security apparatus across government.

The second core function of an NSA is to cohere the community, set direction and to use the levers of the Cabinet Office to enable departments and agencies to deliver. This is no easy task given the diverse and often competing interests and viewpoints that exist, and where security issues increasingly fall outside the traditional realm of defence and foreign policy. And to be credible across government, the new NSS will need to begin with reforms to the NSS itself – its size, culture and relationships with departments and the outside world.

Finally, NSAs must be credible on the world stage, and particularly with counterparts in 'Five Eyes' partners and beyond, on a very broad range of issues from defence and foreign policy to investment security or cyber issues. They will be afforded a certain amount of respect for the title, but the expert substance and the clear support of the prime minister must also exist for trusted relationships with fellow security and intelligence professionals to thrive.

A new NSA will need to develop a new National Security Strategy

If, as looks likely, Keir Starmer chooses to retain the current arrangements in the Cabinet Office, it will be important for the forthcoming recruitment process for a new NSA to be driven by future needs and requirements.

With a new government in the UK, and the rapidly changing security environment at home and overseas, there is now a pressing need to develop a new National Security Strategy, bringing together the new thinking emerging through the recently announced Defence Review and Resilience Review. A new NSA will need to shape this work, formulate strategy across government, negotiate spending allocations and then oversee implementation without direct control of many of the levers.

Aside from the sophisticated cross-system leadership skills required in an NSA, they will need to demonstrate that they are able to range across a very broad landscape of geographic, thematic, financial, corporate, legal and technical issues. Over the last 15 years, the concept of national security has outgrown the traditional boundaries of foreign policy, defence and intelligence, demanding more of incumbent NSAs.

No single candidate will ever be perfect

The risks have increased in volume, diversity and complexity since the position was created in 2010. Putin’s war against Ukraine has shown that we ignore traditional areas of focus at our peril, but Britain’s adversaries are not pursuing their goals solely through traditional, predictable disciplines of defence, intelligence and diplomacy. We are engaged in a set of hybrid conflicts that subject the UK to malign economic statecraft, the pursuit of technological advantage, offensive cyber campaigns, and mis/disinformation. Future NSAs will need to have, or quickly develop, an understanding of domestic policy, technology and economics to address non-military aggression.

National security risks includes disruptive events like pandemics, industrial action, severe weather, public disorder and solar events. Although there are many overlaps, this often requires a very different approach to risk management and a different community across government and nationally. It will be difficult to find an individual NSA who has the experience in all areas – and the bench of senior officials suitably qualified to step up to the role is not all that deep or diverse, something it will be important for the next NSA to rectify for the future. The complementary experience, skills and background of the deputy NSAs in the team are another important ingredient for success.

The job of NSA should be a crucial element of making the national security community in the UK more than the sum of its parts, representing the UK overseas and providing trusted personal support to the prime minister. No candidate will be perfect or fully equipped. It’s a tough ask. But Starmer should use this opportunity both to find the right person – someone he can work with and who has the ability (and humility) to navigate a portfolio well beyond their own direct experience – and to help him put in place a strategy and arrangements that will meet the country’s future security needs.