How Keir Starmer can put country before party as his exit looms

Nothing in politics or government is inevitable. But it looks like the game is nearly up for Keir Starmer. Ministers have been resigning and the prime minister’s authority appears to be waning rapidly.  

For now, Starmer is maintaining that he is going nowhere and would fight any leadership contest – as he must to maintain any semblance of authority. But as he contemplates the future, with polls indicating his probable challenger Andy Burnham will be returning to Westminster after this week’s Makerfield by-election, the prime minister should turn his thoughts to a vital question on which he can still set the agenda: the manner of his exit and the transition that will follow.  

For all the turbulence of the last decade, a mid-parliament prime ministerial exit is an unusual event. But how the transfer of power happens, and then how a new administration starts, really matters for the effectiveness of UK government. Starmer still has power over the terms of his departure from office. He even has the opportunity to establish positive conventions and precedents for the future.

UK government is in danger of a fumbled transition

The worst scenario for the coming weeks would be a prime minister clinging to power actively trying to make life difficult for his successor, followed by an eager, but unprepared and incoherent team rushing into office and making a mess of their most important early days.  

Already, we have seen intra-Burnham factions emerging, with multiple and conflicting sources of advice to the would-be prime minister. Dozens of people are claiming (more or less credibly) to speak for Burnham and to be acting on his behalf. If the leadership contest hots up and more contenders show they have the parliamentary support to join, the confusion will get even worse. This is a recipe for disaster.

As Gordon Brown, Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak found as they took the controls mid-parliament, being prime minister is a job like no other. No cabinet or mayoral job, however senior, can fully prepare you for the deluge of decisions that must be made in the No10 pressure cooker.  

What is needed for an effective transition is time. Not many months, but enough time for whoever succeeds in a contest to calmly appoint the right people, to organise them into a coherent team and to begin to develop a workable policy programme for governing based on a proper understanding of the current context of government.

Starmer must take ownership of the timetable for a transition

The opportunity for Keir Starmer, and for his legacy, is to create that time, and lay the groundwork for an effective transition. So, what should he do?

First, at the point when he accepts his departure is inevitable, he should set a reasonable timetable for his exit. If the prime minister does that proactively, and the date is not too far off, it is most likely that the timetable he sets will stick. If, for example, he announces that he will leave before the Labour party conference, his party and his internal political opponents seem likely to grant him that space. That would give him a few months to find the energy that his premiership has too often lacked, and focus on the key priorities that he wants to complete over the summer.

The Labour party could then set out the timetable for a leadership contest or coronation that would fit with Starmer's exit plans. The prime minister would be able to grant access talks to any contender for the Labour leadership, allowing them to establish proper transition teams and base their plans on proper information from the civil service. Depending on how the contest evolves, this might even allow for a proper policy debate, informed by evidence, during a leadership election, and might also set an expectation that – in an era of rapidly changing prime ministers – there is a sensible way to manage political transitions.

However unwelcome it may seem to the prime minister, there is a case to be made that the sooner he seizes the initiative the better. Events after the by-election on 18 June could easily spiral out of his control. So, it is in his interests to act fast – either before or just after the Makerfield result.

Contenders for the crown have a responsibility to prepare

Leadership contenders, while understandably focused on achieving the prize and personally dedicating most of their efforts to winning it, must also play their part in a responsible transition. It is essential that anyone with a shot at No10 makes very clear who is responsible for what within their transition team, and who will be given the small number of the most essential jobs if they enter government. There can be no fudging, equivocating or ambiguity.

And should Starmer grant access talks with the civil service, leadership hopefuls need to take that opportunity seriously. Officials will be desperate to understand a new administration’s plans for office and to get ahead by thinking about how to turn campaign rhetoric into concrete plans. Preparation is no guarantee of success – as Liz Truss found in 2022 after extensive access talks – but it does make it much more likely that a new administration can get off to a strong start.

When he entered office, the prime minister promised to put country before party. As his personal control over political future declines, now is the time for him to fulfil that promise. A well-prepared transition is in the interests of the country. The painful but responsible choice for the prime minister now is to put the country first.