Conservative leadership contests: past and present

Conservative leadership contests have proved to be notoriously tricky to predict. However, a look back at the history does provide a few lessons to ponder: Being favourite is no guarantee of success Boris Johnson’s last minute decision not to run may provide him with a place in the history books alongside the likes of Rab Butler and Ken Clarke as well tipped candidates who never made it. Butler failed in his aspiration to be leader in both 1957 and 1963, with controversy about the process being one of the reasons why new rules were introduced in 1965. The process developed after that has had a big effect on the runners and riders. Before 1998, it involved only MPs voting. However, a clear lead at the beginning has been rare. Ted Heath in 1965, Margaret Thatcher in 1989, and John Major in 1995 (the latter two facing leadership challenges) were all able to win on the first ballot. In many contests, the multiple rounds and the transfer of votes from departed candidates have had a big effect. Those wanting to make it through to the final two will not face an easy ride and being the clear front runner at the start does not guarantee success. In 1997, Ken Clarke was ahead in both the first and second round, but in the third round was defeated by William Hague (who had been in second place in each previous ballot). In 2005, Michael Portillo suffered the same fate. Despite leading the first and second ballot, he came last in the third ballot and it was Iain Duncan Smith (IDS) who came out on top and faced the party membership vote. IDS went on to win the leadership contest with 61% of the vote. Interestingly, Thatcher is the only person to have been ahead in more than one round and gone on to win. Tactics and canvassing can produce unexpected changes of fortune While the formal ballot process provided a clearer process, leadership battles have continued to be as much about canvassing behind the scenes and tactical voting to get rid of particular candidates.  Candidates with relatively low numbers of support will be thinking how to navigate the early rounds and build momentum. In 1975, attempting to stay on as Party Leader after failing to win two general elections in a row, Heath faced a contest against Thatcher. Opposition to Heath and his failure to build up support with backbench MPs were seen as reasons for him losing to Thatcher in the first round. Perhaps ironically, her failure to work the Westminster tearooms was a factor in Thatcher’s own downfall 15 years later. Stopping a candidate can be just as much of a motivation as voting for a favourite. Michael Heseltine in 1990 and Michael Howard in 1997 suffered this fate. We may find out tomorrow or Thursday whether Michael Gove will be added to this list. Others have benefited from coming through as the compromise candidate, including Major in 1990. But tactical voting can also change the course of the contest in unexpected ways. The rival camps of Portillo and Clarke helped Iain Duncan Smith get through to the membership ballot in 2001 and go on to win. Candidates this time around will be very conscious of 2001’s lesson that the membership may take quite a different view to MPs’ preferred candidate. A surprise outbreak of unity cannot be ruled out Leadership campaigns can obviously be quite divisive experiences for a party. There have been plenty of times when politicians have seen the writing on the wall or decided to rally behind a leader rather than fight on to the bitter end. In 1965, though he was only 17 votes behind, Reggie Maudling withdrew in favour of Heath once Enoch Powell had been knocked out. In 1990, after Thatcher failed to get the required majority and the 15% lead required in the first round (and subsequently resigned), new candidates entered the fray. John Major failed to win outright in the second round, but Michael Heseltine and Douglas Hurd withdrew anyway. We have seen deal-making and job offers already. There will be many backroom discussions about second and third preferences and it is entirely possible that candidates will still drop out in support of others. If there were a clear favourite, it is within the rules for MPs to rally behind one leader and forgo the membership ballot.  This would also be the first time a membership ballot has been used to select a new leader and prime minister while in government. At a time of high instability, the opportunity for a swift result may play on people’s minds. However, given the charged political atmosphere and the tricky governing period ahead, the pressure for a wider mandate will prove a strong pull. All in all, history suggests that, come September, we will be looking back on a very different contest than the one people are predicting today.