Performance Tracker 2025: Prisons

In many cases, basic requirements like getting prisoners to appointments or providing them with both a shower and a hot meal are not being met. ¹ HM Chief Inspector of Prisons for England and Wales, Annual report 2024–25, 2025, https://cloud-platform-e218f50a4812967ba1215eaecede923f.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/sites/19/2025/07/Annual-report-FINAL.pdf  Turning performance around in a failing prison typically starts by reducing the number of prisoners it holds, so prison leaders can get to grips with the core problems. But with so many prisons failing and such intense pressure on capacity, this is not currently possible in a sustained or widespread way. Meaningful performance improvements would likely require substantially reducing the total prison population in the short term, to allow governors to focus on improving safety, prioritising consistent regimes with reasonable levels of purposeful activity, investing in staff retention and training, and improving physical conditions and security around the estate.

The government’s Sentencing Bill contains major reforms to sentencing that will stop the prison population growing as quickly as previously expected. But it may not be enough. It will not result in a long-term fall in the prison population and prisons are expected to remain at – or above – capacity for the foreseeable future. Even with the government’s proposed reforms, by May 2029 there will be around 2,000 more people in prison than in September 2025. ² Ministry of Justice ‘Prison Population Projections: 2024 to 2029’, 2024, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/prison-population-projections-2024-to-2029/prison-population-projections-2024-to-2029  The prospect of prisons running out of space again remains very real.

Recent funding increases have taken spending per prisoner above 2009/10 levels – though this may not last

After Labour last left government, there was a sharp decline of almost 20% in real-terms day-to-day spending on prisons from 2009/10 to 2015/16. Since then, successive Conservative governments have increased prisons spending, which has been on a steadily upward trajectory since 2015/16, aside from a minor dip in 2021/22 as pandemic-related spending was unwound. In 2023/24, on the eve of Labour’s return to government, spending surpassed 2009/10 levels for the first time, by just under 2%. Spending in 2025/26 is projected to be 10% above 2009/10 levels. ³ Institute for Government analysis of Ministry of Justice, ‘Prison performance data’ (Costs per prison place and prisoner by individual prison), 2010/11 to 2023/24 and HM Treasury, Spending Review 2025, Cp 1336, The Stationery Office, 2025.

However, the increase in prisoner numbers since 2020/21 means that day-to-day spending per prisoner has been fairly flat over that time, only briefly jumping above 2009/10 levels during the pandemic. The relatively generous MoJ settlement at the 2024 autumn budget allowed this to rise significantly in 2024/25 and 2025/26, and a further small rise is expected in 2026/27. ⁴ Institute for Government analysis of Ministry of Justice, ‘Prison performance data’ (Costs per prison place and prisoner by individual prison), 2010/11 to 2023/24 and HM Treasury, Spending Review 2025, Cp 1336, The Stationery Office, 2025.

After 2026/27, however, spending looks significantly tighter. The 2025 spending review did not separate out spending on prisons from other MoJ spending, but commitments on courts and probation spending and the larger prison population suggest per- prisoner spending is likely to fall from 2024/25, returning to the 2023/24 level in 2028/29. ⁵ Institute for Government analysis of Ministry of Justice, ‘Prison performance data’ (Costs per prison place and prisoner by individual prison), 2010/11 to 2023/24 and HM Treasury, Spending Review 2025, Cp 1336, The Stationery Office, 2025.  If these projections are accurate, this level of spending is likely to be difficult to maintain. Conditions in prisons are currently extremely poor and it may prove impossible to cut per-prisoner spending given the level of risk to staff and prisoners, and often extremely critical reports from the prisons inspectorate. ⁶ HM Chief Inspector of Prisons for England and Wales, Annual report 2024–25, HM Inspectorate of Prisons, 2025, https://cloud-platform-e218f50a4812967ba1215eaecede923f.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/sites/19/2025/07/Annual-report-FINAL.pdf  If, however, the government can hold prisoner numbers lower than expected, these spending plans would be more manageable.

Large increases in capital spending have mostly gone on building new prisons

The MoJ capital budget was increased dramatically by the Johnson government in 2020/21 and has continued at historic highs since; more than triple the average across the 2010s in each of 2021/22, 2022/23 and 2023/24. ⁷ Institute for Government analysis of HM Treasury, ‘Public Expenditure Statistical Analyses’ (Table 3.7), 2010– 2024.  While this includes all MoJ capital spending, not just spending on prisons, the majority of this budget has been earmarked for the prison expansion programme. Even so, the amount of money actually spent (outturn) has been consistently below the original capital budgets, with over £800 million of planned capital spending shifted to day-to-day spending in 2023/24 alone, under the Sunak government, to meet acute spending pressures. ⁸ Ministry of Justice, Independent Review into Prison Capacity, 2025, www.gov.uk/government/publications/independent-prison-capacity-review-final-report  The Labour government likewise transferred £695m from capital to day-to-day spending for 2024/25, but has committed to not carrying out similar shifts in future. ⁹ Brook P, Harrison C, Knight A and others, Revised Government spending plans for 2024/25, House of Commons library, 2024, https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-10197/CBP-10197.pdf

Capital spending is expected to rise steadily from 2024/25 to 2026/27, although remaining below the £2.3bn budget for 2023/24. ¹⁰ HM Treasury, Spending Review 2025, Cp 1336, The Stationery Office, 2025, www.gov.uk/government/collections/spending-review-2025  This more measured rate of increase suggests a more realistic approach to how rapidly capital investment can be productively spent. But the MoJ may still struggle to spend its full capital allocation. The prison expansion programme makes up the large majority of MoJ capital spending, and has repeatedly been dogged by planning delays, environmental regulations and operational problems such as unsuitable ground conditions and asbestos discovery in existing sites. ¹¹ Ministry of Justice, Independent Review into Prison Capacity, 2025, www.gov.uk/government/publications/independent-prison-capacity-review-final-report  From 2026/27, capital spending will begin to decline, but will remain above 2025/26 levels in real terms. ¹² Institute for Government analysis of HM Treasury, Spending Review 2025, Cp 1336, The Stationery Office, 2025, www.gov.uk/government/collections/spending-review-2025

Emergency responses to the capacity crisis have successfully averted disaster – for now

The prison capacity crisis was one of the things on Sue Gray’s ‘disaster list’ from before Labour entered government. ¹³ Pickard J, Fisher L and Gross A, ‘Labour faces series of crises if elected, internal dossier warns’, Financial Times, 21 May 2024, retrieved 7 July 2025, www.ft.com/content/b95976ff-d861-4baf-a168-fd262b4e2f95  In July 2024, prisons were at bursting point and immediate action was needed to avert disaster. ¹⁴ Rowland C, The crisis in prisons, Institute for Government, 2024, retrieved 15 October 2025 www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/crisis-prisons  In this, the government has succeeded – at least temporarily.

Prison capacity has long been a major problem, with successive governments over the last 25 years failing to take sufficiently decisive action to either increase the number of spaces or reduce the size of the population. ¹⁵ Ministry of Justice, Independent Review into Prison Capacity, 2025, www.gov.uk/government/publications/independent-prison-capacity-review-final-report  Almost a quarter (23%) of prisoners are in crowded accommodation, meaning they are sharing cells designed to hold fewer people. ¹⁶ Institute for Government analysis of Ministry of Justice, ‘Prison Population Statistics’ (monthly releases), 2025, www.gov.uk/government/publications/prison-population-monthly-prison-figures-2025  Spaces are so tight that maintenance has been delayed to avoid taking cells temporarily out of use. ¹⁷ Ministry of Justice, Independent Review into Prison Capacity, 2025, www.gov.uk/government/publications/independent-prison-capacity-review-final-report  And the operating margin, the gap between the total number of spaces and the useable maximum that can be safely and appropriately occupied, has been steadily squeezed, dropping from 2,000 in the early 2010s to just 1,350 in November 2023. It stayed at that level until July 2025, when the government raised it to 1,640, which is still just 1.8% of total capacity. ¹⁸ Ministry of Justice, ‘Prison Population Statistics’ (monthly releases), 2010 to 2025, www.gov.uk/government/collections/prison-population-statistics

In this context, on coming into power in 2024, the new government had little choice but to introduce SDS40, an emergency measure to release certain prisoners after serving 40% of their sentence in custody, rather than 50%. ¹⁹ Rowland C, The crisis in prisons, Institute for Government, 2024, retrieved 15 October 2025 www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/crisis-prisons  By announcing it immediately after the election in July and implementing releases in two waves in September and October, the government gave both prisons and the probation service valuable time to prepare. There was a general consensus among interviewees that while it was still somewhat rushed, the right people were released at the right time, and both prisoners and prison staff benefitted from a more predictable release schedule than the previous ad hoc early release schemes under the Sunak government.

“The constant changes to release and how prisoners can expect to move across the estate still created uncertainty and upheaval, but [the actual releases] were a relatively well-oiled operation.” – Interviewee

However, the actual reduction in the total prison population was relatively small, down just 3.5% from August to December 2024, and even this had been all-but wiped out by March 2025. ²⁰ Ministry of Justice, ‘Offender management statistics quarterly: January to March 2025’ (Prison population: 30 June 2025), 2025 www.gov.uk/government/statistics/offender-management-statistics-quarterly-january-to-march-2025  While the actual releases went fairly smoothly, planning for releases, including organising accommodation and transfers to support services in the community, was seriously affected by early release. ²¹ Institute for Government interviews, 2025.  This almost certainly contributed to the sharp rise in recalls to custody, which were up 45% year-on-year from October to December 2024. ²² Ministry of Justice, ‘Offender management statistics quarterly: January to March 2025 (Prison recalls), 2025, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/offender-management-statistics-quarterly-january-to-march-2025  Rising recalls seriously limited the overall impact of the measures. The riots of August 2024 also came at the worst possible time for prisons and further increased the pressure, and the continuing long delays for trials in the crown court mean the remand population is still rising. ²³ Rowland C, ‘Criminal justice system: Overview’, Public Services Performance Tracker 2025, Institute for Government, 2025, www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/performance-tracker-2025/criminal-justice/overview

The opening of HMP Millsike in April 2025 and the various early release measures mean that there is a little more headroom in prisons than a year ago. But even so, the adult men’s estate is currently operating at 97.7% capacity (as of the end of September 2025), and all the negative consequences of intense capacity pressure continue: high levels of violence, limited purposeful activity, and very challenging conditions for prisoners and staff. ²⁴ Ministry of Justice, ‘Prison Population Statistics’, 2025, www.gov.uk/government/collections/prison-population-statistics

The government’s proposals will reduce the projected prison population, but without further reform capacity will remain at ongoing risk of crisis

SDS40 clearly did not fix the fundamental problem of an increasing prison population, and it did not even win as much time as the government hoped. By December 2024, the government had to take further action, doubling the maximum period offenders can spend on home detention at the end of their sentence.^{*, 25} Janes L, ‘More updates to SDS40 and HDC’, InsideTime, 6 January 2025, retrieved 15 October 2025, https://insidetime.org/information/more-updates-to-sds40-and-hdc/  In May 2025, the justice secretary was forced to announce the suspension of standard recalls for most prisoners, so that they can only be returned to prison for a fixed period of 14 or 28 days, depending on the length of their sentence. ²⁶ Syal R, ‘Jail time for recalled offenders to be limited to free up prison places’, The Guardian, 14 May 2025, retrieved 15 October 2025, www.theguardian.com/society/2025/may/14/three-new-prisons-justice-secretary-announces  These changes were intended to tide the system over until more of the planned 14,000 new prisons spaces are available and the government’s long-term sentencing reforms can be implemented.

In October 2024, the government commissioned former Conservative justice secretary David Gauke to lead an independent review into sentencing, with the stated aim of providing long-term solutions to the prison capacity crisis and expanding the use of punishment outside prison. The review’s final report, published in May 2025, included numerous recommendations aimed at reducing the prison population. ²⁷ Ministry of Justice, Independent Sentencing Review: Final report, 2025, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/682d8d995ba51be7c0f45371/independent-sentencing-review-report-part_2.pdf  The most significant of these were:

• ensuring short prison sentences (those under 12 months) could only be used in exceptional circumstances
• making it possible to suspend sentences of up to three years
• introducing an ‘earned progression’ model for prison sentences, where prisoners who obey prison rules would spend a third of their sentence in prison, a third supervised in the community and the final third with minimal supervision but still subject to recall to prison
• reforming prison recall, when people are returned to custody after release, so fewer
  people would be recalled and for a fixed 56-day period
• increasing use of community sentences, including through the expansion of ‘intensive supervision courts’^**
• greater investment in provision for community sentences, including the probation service, drug and alcohol treatment, women’s centres and rehabilitative programmes.

The review estimated that, collectively, these would reduce the prison population by around 9,800 by 2028, relative to the projected levels under SDS40 – though in absolute terms the prison population would continue to rise. ²⁸ Ministry of Justice, Independent Sentencing Review: Final report, 2025, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/682d8d995ba51be7c0f45371/independent-sentencing-review-report-part_2.pdf

The government has now accepted almost all of these proposals and is currently legislating to implement them via the Sentencing Bill. ²⁹ Ministry of Justice, Sentencing Bill 2025, 2025, www.gov.uk/government/publications/sentencing-bill-2025  However, even if the sentencing review reforms reduce demand on prisons and the government hits its planned delivery timelines for prison expansion, demand is projected to outstrip spaces until at least late 2027.

So far, the number of spaces has been higher than was projected at the end of last year. ³⁰ Institute for Government analysis of Ministry of Justice, ‘Sentencing Bill Impact Assessment’, 2025, Ministry of Justice, Annual Statement on Prison Capacity: 2024, 2024, Ministry of Justice, ‘Prison Population Projections’, 2023 and 2024 and Ministry of Justice, ‘Prison population: monthly prison figures’, 2021–25.  But this is more likely to be because demand is also higher than expected – preventing spaces being taken out of use for repairs or fire safety work – rather than because capacity has been increased ahead of schedule. This could be storing up problems for the future, if necessary maintenance is going undone.

_{*    This measure came into effect in June 2025.}

_{**   Intensive supervision courts are a type of problem-solving court that aim to take a rehabilitative approach to offenders with complex needs, diverting them away from prison sentences while addressing the causes of offending. Offenders are provided with support to address needs such as drug use and have regular reviews with the judge who sentenced them to assess their progress and apply incentives and sanctions as appropriate.}
 

There is also a risk that the expected reduction in demand does not fully materialise. The biggest reduction is expected to come from the ‘earned progression’ model, which will mean most prisoners who behave well will be eligible for release after a third of their sentence. ³¹ Ministry of Justice, Independent Sentencing Review: Final report, 2025, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/682d8d995ba51be7c0f45371/independent-sentencing-review-report-part_2.pdf  In practice, it seems that there will be a presumption of release at the one-third point, and prisons will have to go through the existing adjudication process to add extra days onto a prisoner’s sentence.

This is probably the only viable approach: the bar for not releasing eligible prisoners at this point needs to be high in order to free up enough spaces. But it may still not be enough. There have been sharp rises in the number of additional days handed out in recent years. While the 108,366 days added in 2024 remains 68% below 2019, it was up 56% on the previous year. ³² Ministry of Justice, ‘Offender management statistics quarterly: October to December 2024’ (Prison adjudications: 2024), 2025, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/offender-management-statistics-quarterly-october-to-december-2024/offender-management-statistics-quarterly-october-t…  If this trend continues, it would rapidly diminish the benefits of earned progression.

At the same time, benefits of earlier release are also dependent on reforms to recall. As recommended in the sentencing review, ³³ Ministry of Justice, Independent Sentencing Review: Final report, 2025, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/682d8d995ba51be7c0f45371/independent-sentencing-review-report-part_2.pdf  the government proposes to extend the period of fixed-term recall from the current 14 days (for sentences up to a year) or 28 days (for longer sentences) to a flat 56 days, while also raising the threshold for recall. ³⁴ Ministry of Justice, Sentencing Bill 2025, 2025, www.gov.uk/government/publications/sentencing-bill-2025  But probation staff will still have discretion on when they recall a prisoner.

With a substantially increased caseload, strong risk aversion, a vacancy rate of 30% for qualified probation officers in June 2025 ³⁵ Ministry of Justice, ‘HMPPS workforce statistics quarterly June 2025’ (Annex - Prison and Probation Officer Recruitment), 2025, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/hm-prison-and-probation-service-workforce-  and high levels of staff inexperience, the probation service may struggle to bring down the recall rate enough to overcome more than doubling the fixed-term recall period. The government’s emphasis on stricter probation requirements for people released from prison is also likely to increase the chance of breaches.

Plans to expand prison capacity should help from 2028 onwards, but will not solve the immediate problem

Failing to match supply of prison places with expected demand for them has been a perennial problem for governments over at least the last 20 years, and is what led to crisis points in 2023 and 2024. ³⁶ Ministry of Justice, Independent Review into Prison Capacity, 2025, www.gov.uk/government/publications/independent-prison-capacity-review-final-report  The publication of a long-term prison capacity strategy in December 2024, ³⁷ Ministry of Justice, 10-Year Prison Capacity Strategy, 2024, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/67586f828a1ef8f66413b9c2/24.231_MOJ_10-Year_Capacity_Strat_Pub_v10.1_WEB.pdf  which included projections of supply and demand for prison places, was very welcome and clearly set out where promised increases in capacity will come from (i.e. new prisons, expanding existing prisons or temporary ‘rapid deployment cells’) and when. The commitment to publishing annual statements on prison capacity ³⁸ Ministry of Justice, HM Prison and Probation Service, Youth Custody Service, ‘Lord Chancellor sets out immediate action to defuse ticking prison ‘time-bomb’’, press release, 12 July 2024, retrieved 14 October 2025, www.gov.uk/government/news/lord-chancellor-sets-out-immediate-action-to-defuse-ticking-prison-time-bomb  is also a positive step that will allow more effective scrutiny of government plans and should highlight more clearly the implications of any policy changes that are likely to further increase the prison population, such as creating new criminal offences or increasing sentences.

The government has promised 14,000 new or refurbished prison spaces by 2031, of which 2,400 had already been delivered by May 2025. ³⁹ Mahmood S, speech, 14 May 2025, transcript retrieved 8 July 2025, www.gov.uk/government/speeches/lord-chancellor-and-moj-permanent-secretary-prison-capacity-press-conference  The big increase in capacity is projected to come in 2028 and 2029, initially from expanding existing prisons, with further new prisons (in addition to HMP Millsike) expected to be operational from 2029. In the meantime, there will be some new spaces from refurbishments, rapid deployment cells and new houseblocks in existing prisons. But the government is likely to struggle to keep prisoner numbers below available capacity unless further action is taken, and so prisons will remain under intense pressure.

Nor can the government realistically accelerate its expansion plans. Increasing capacity has proved a constant challenge for past governments and the National Audit Office (NAO) has consistently criticised over-optimistic plans for how fast additional spaces can be delivered, particularly from building new prisons. ⁴⁰ Comptroller and Auditor General, Increasing the capacity of the prison estate to meet demand, Session 2024-25, HC 376, National Audit Office, www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/increasing-the-capacity-of-the-prison-estate-to-meet-demand.pdf  The Labour government’s promised changes around planning requirements, including allowing the housing secretary to override local objections to prison building, ⁴¹ Adu Aletha, ‘Shabana Mahmood suggests ministers will override objections to new prisons’, The Guardian, 11 December 2024, retrieved 15 October 2025, www.theguardian.com/society/2024/dec/11/shabana-mahmood-suggests-ministers-will-override-objections-to-new-prisons  should help to overcome some of this. But making these changes in law is one thing; using them to force through prison building is another, and will require strong political will and a willingness to upset people – potentially including some Labour MPs and mayors.

More fundamentally though, even a more bullish approach to planning will not help increase capacity in the next few years. Once planning is granted, constructing a prison is a major building project that typically takes at least three to four years to complete and come online. HMP Millsike received outline planning permission in September 2019, full permission in November 2021, and opened in April 2025. ⁴² Ministry of Justice, Independent Review into Prison Capacity, 2025, www.gov.uk/government/publications/independent-prison-capacity-review-final-report  This is a fairly typical timeline. Faster building is not a realistic solution to the government’s problem. ⁴³ Comptroller and Auditor General, Increasing the capacity of the prison estate to meet demand, Session 2024-25, HC 376, National Audit Office, www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/increasing-the-capacity-of-the-prison-estate-to-meet-demand.pdf

The makeup of prisoners has changed, with more stable longer- term prisoners being replaced by short-term and recalled prisoners

Over the medium term, there have been big changes in the prisoner population, driven principally by ongoing problems in criminal courts and the probation service, as well as the increasing length of licence periods following release. The numbers of prisoners on remand awaiting trial or sentencing, and prisoners on ‘recall’ (who have been sent back to prison after breaching the conditions of their release), both almost doubled from March 2019 to March 2025, up 96% and 89%, respectively. ⁴⁴ Ministry of Justice, ‘Offender management statistics quarterly: January to March 2025’, 2025, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/offender-management-statistics-quarterly-january-to-march-2025  A fifth of prisoners are now on remand, and 30-40% of these people will either be acquitted or receive a non-custodial sentence.^{*, 45} Institute for Government analysis of Ministry of Justice, ‘Offender management statistics quarterly’, March 2013 to March 2025, and Ministry of Justice, ‘Criminal justice system statistics quarterly, December 2024’ (Remands data tool 2017–2024).  This growth has been driven principally by the rise in the crown court backlog. Recalled prisoners have gone from 6% of prisoners in 2013 to 15% in March 2025, which is likely to be related to intense pressure on probation and high vacancy rates for qualified probation officers. ⁴⁶ Ministry of Justice, ‘Offender management statistics quarterly: January to March 2025’, 2025, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/offender-management-statistics-quarterly-january-to-march-2025

At the same time, the number of sentenced prisoners who have never been released has fallen noticeably, down almost a fifth (18%) from 2016 to 2025. ⁴⁷ Ministry of Justice, ‘Offender management statistics quarterly: January to March 2025’, 2025, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/offender-management-statistics-quarterly-january-to-march-2025  This has been driven by a large decline in the number of charges brought by the police and the number of cases processed through the criminal courts in the early to mid-2010s, though both of these have begun to reverse in recent years. The one major exception to this is prisoners serving extended determinate sentences, which are given for serious offences and have a variable release date and a standard tariff of around 8–9 years on average. ⁴⁸ Institute for Government analysis of Ministry of Justice, ‘Criminal justice system statistics quarterly, December 2024’ (Outcomes by offence tool 2017–2024), 2025.  The number of prisoners on these sentences is growing rapidly, up 9% year- on-year in March 2025 and almost 70% on 2019, ⁴⁹ Ministry of Justice, ‘Offender management statistics quarterly: January to March 2025’, 2025, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/offender-management-statistics-quarterly-january-to-march-2025  most likely because of a change to when and how these prisoners get released that was introduced in April 2015. ⁵⁰ Prison Reform Trust, ‘Extended sentences’, no date, retrieved 14 October 2025, https://prisonreformtrust.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/08-Extended-Sentences-info-sheet.pdf  There has also been a recent increase in prisoners serving short sentences of 6–12 months, up almost 50% year-on-year in 2025, though still 15% below 2016 levels. ⁵¹ Ministry of Justice, ‘Offender management statistics quarterly: January to March 2025’, 2025, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/offender-management-statistics-quarterly-january-to-march-2025

_{*    This proportion varies considerably over time and between magistrates’ courts and the crown court. In 2024, 60% of defendants in closed cases who served time on remand received an immediate custodial sentence: 70% of those remanded and sentenced in the crown court and 33% in magistrates’ courts. Ministry of Justice, ‘Criminal justice system statistics quarterly, December 2024 (Remands data tool 2017–2024)’.}

These changes to the prisoner population are likely to make prisons harder to manage. Short-term prisoners are often more disruptive and are less likely to engage productively with the prison regime. ⁵² Institute for Government interviews, 2025.  Those on remand are not required to participate in work or purposeful activity even where it is available – and often it is not. And people who are recalled to prison are typically sent back for just 14 or 28 days, which is long enough to disrupt accommodation and any employment in the community, but not long enough to allow them to engage in anything productive like drug and alcohol treatment while in prison. ⁵³ Institute for Government interviews, 2025.  Longer-term prisoners, by contrast, are more settled into the prison environment and routine, provide more stability, and have more incentive to behave well. This shift in the prisoner population may be contributing to the continuing growth in violence and protest activity, even as capacity pressure has eased slightly. ⁵⁴ Rowland C and Pope T, Inside England and Wales’s prisons crisis, 2025, retrieved 15 October 2025 www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/2025-03/inside-crisis-prisons-england-wales_0.pdf

Despite substantial increases there are still fewer staff per prisoner than in 2009/10, and leaving and sickness rates both remain high

Operational staff numbers have grown substantially over the last seven years, and by March 2024, the prison service hit its total target staffing level – though some individual prisons were still below target. Interviewees felt this has had a noticeable impact on the functioning of prisons, improving stability and, in some cases, allowing more time out of cell for prisoners. ⁵⁵ Institute for Government interviews, 2025.  But current target staffing levels still leave prisons with fewer frontline prison officers than in 2009/10. In 2023/24, there were 5% fewer band 3–5 prison officers than in 2009/10. ⁵⁶ Ministry of Justice, ‘HM Prison and Probation Service workforce quarterly: March 2025’, 2025, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/hm-prison-and-probation-service-workforce-quarterly-march-2025  It is important to note that this only covers publicly run prisons, as there is no workforce data available for private prisons.

The total number of operational staff per prisoner was down 7% on 2009/10, despite having increased significantly over the last eight years as staff numbers have grown; this was driven primarily by a large fall in staff at band 2 ‘operational support’ roles between 2009/10 and 2014/15. ⁵⁷ Institute for Government analysis of Ministry of Justice, ‘HM Prison and Probation Service workforce quarterly’, March 2011 to 2025, Ministry of Justice, ‘Offender management statistics quarterly’, March 2013 to March 2025 and Ministry of Justice, ‘Prison population statistics’, monthly releases January 2011 to March 2013.  Band 2 staff do things like checking in and supervising visitors, patrolling the grounds and escorting contractors. ⁵⁸ Ministry of Justice, ‘HM Prison and Probation Service workforce quarterly: June 2025’ (Workforce statistics guide), 2025, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/hm-prison-and-probation-service-workforce-quarterly-june-2025/workforce-statistics-guide

Recent workforce growth reversed in 2024/25, leaving the prison service around 4% below target staffing nationally, with almost a fifth of prisons having at least 10% fewer officers than their target. ⁵⁹ Ministry of Justice, ‘HM Prison and Probation Service workforce quarterly: March 2025’, 2025, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/hm-prison-and-probation-service-workforce-quarterly-march-2025  Some prisons are particularly hard to recruit for, often due to poor conditions and violence, staffing restrictions for high-security establishments, or recruitment challenges in the local area. ⁶⁰ Institute for Government interviews, 2025.  Prisons have also struggled with the quality of staff, with a shocking 20% of officers who left in 2024/25 being dismissed for performance or conduct problems. ⁶¹ Ministry of Justice, ‘HM Prison and Probation Service workforce quarterly: March 2025’, 2025, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/hm-prison-and-probation-service-workforce-quarterly-march-2025

Several prisons which have had urgent notifications issued by the prisons inspectorate have significantly below target staffing levels, which may reflect both the challenges of recruiting officers for these prisons and the impact of running a prison with insufficient officers. Long Lartin, ⁶² HM Chief Inspector of Prisons for England and Wales, ‘Drones dropping drugs and weapons into high security prisons are a threat to national security’, press release, 14 January 2025, retrieved 15 October 2025, https://hmiprisons.justiceinspectorates.gov.uk/news/drones-dropping-drugs-and-weapons-into-high-security-  for example, was 13% short of its target staffing level in March 2025. ⁶³ Ministry of Justice, ‘HM Prison and Probation Service workforce quarterly: March 2025’, 2025, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/hm-prison-and-probation-service-workforce-quarterly-march-2025  In comparison, Cardiff, which is identified as one of the best reception prisons, was only 3% short. ⁶⁴ Ministry of Justice, ‘HM Prison and Probation Service workforce quarterly: March 2025’, 2025, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/hm-prison-and-probation-service-workforce-quarterly-march-2025

Prisons are managing to retain staff more effectively than a few years ago. The leaving rate has come down slightly from its high of 14% in 2021/22 and 2022/23, which is all the more impressive given the influx of new staff over that period, as officers are most likely to leave in their first year. It has now returned to the level it was just before the pandemic (12%). ⁶⁵ Ministry of Justice, ‘HM Prison and Probation Service workforce quarterly: March 2025’, 2025, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/hm-prison-and-probation-service-workforce-quarterly-march-2025

It is not clear what has caused leaving rates to fall in the last two years, but improving pay is almost certainly a key factor. There was a significant nominal pay uplift of 7% (4.6% in real terms) for band 3–5 prison officers in 2023/24 under the Sunak government, in line with the recommendation from the Prison Service Pay Review Body. ⁶⁶ Prison Service Pay Review Body, Twenty-third Report on England and Wales 2024, 2024, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/66a79cb60808eaf43b50d8ce/PSPRB_23rd_Report_2024_Accessible.pdf  This is likely to have improved retention, although average pay still remains 3.8% below 2009/10 levels in real terms. ⁶⁷ Institute for Government analysis of Office for National Statistics, ‘Earnings and hours worked, occupation by four-digit SOC: ASHE Table 14 2023/24’, 2024.  Broader economic factors, including fewer vacancies being advertised elsewhere, may also have discouraged resignations, with falling leaving rates also seen in other public services such as hospitals and children’s social care.

In the longer-term context, however, leaving rates remain very high – triple those seen in the early 2010s – and retention is still a major challenge. ⁶⁸ Ministry of Justice, ‘HM Prison and Probation Service workforce quarterly: March 2025’, 2025, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/hm-prison-and-probation-service-workforce-quarterly-march-2025  Interviewees felt strongly that high levels of violence are contributing to this. Staff sickness has come down a little but remains higher than typical pre-pandemic levels, and has ticked up again in the last year. This seems to be driven by increasing mental ill health, although this may partly be the result of changes in recording rather than the kind of need, as the other/ non-specific symptoms category has decreased. ⁶⁹ Ministry of Justice, ‘HM Prison and Probation Service workforce quarterly: March 2025’, 2025, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/hm-prison-and-probation-service-workforce-quarterly-march-2025  Interviewees linked high rates of sickness absence to high levels of violence and trauma, including both being a direct victim of violence and witnessing violence and self-harm.

“In my prison, we’re 20–30 [officers] short each day because of sickness and temporary promotions, despite being technically 20 officers overstaffed.” – Interviewee

Prison officers are less experienced and there are fewer senior prison officers

Many prison officers are inexperienced, with more than half of frontline band 3–5 officers having been in the job less than five years. ⁷⁰ Ministry of Justice, ‘HM Prison and Probation Service workforce quarterly: March 2025’, 2025, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/hm-prison-and-probation-service-workforce-quarterly-march-2025  Interviewees consistently stated that lack of staff experience is causing serious problems for prisons. There has been a significant change in expectations of a daily regime, with inexperienced officers having no experience of the pre-pandemic prison regimes, which typically involved significantly more time out of cell for prisoners. Inexperienced officers often lack confidence and assurance in their interactions with prisoners, and are less willing and able to build relationships with them. ⁷¹ Institute for Government interviews, 2025.  They are often less able to de-escalate situations, which may be contributing to the rise in violence against staff. ⁷² Institute for Government interviews, 2025.

“There has been an irreparable impact from loss of experience. Many [new staff] don’t last longer than three years, and there’s no one to nurture young staff who’ve just come in. They’ve not got the ‘jailcraft’ skills to calm people down, because they haven’t forged those relationships [with prisoners].” – Interviewee

We also heard about problems with a lack of consistency associated with having a large number of inexperienced officers. ⁷³ Institute for Government interviews, 2025.  This may particularly be an issue as prisons return to a more normal regime post-pandemic, with more time out of cell for prisoners. Inconsistent enforcement harms relationships with prisoners and increases frustration and perceptions of unfairness, which can in turn drive violence and protesting behaviours.

“Staff feel a lot less confident and prisoner-staff relationships are a lot more fraught than they used to be… Rules are quite often being enforced inconsistently, which has a big impact on stability across the whole prison and really undermines the culture.” – Interviewee

There has been a small decline in the most inexperienced cohort of officers (under two years’ experience) in the last year. But consistently over the last five years, at least half of officers have had less than five years’ experience. High leaving rates are a problem for building staff experience, with only half of officers who joined in the five years to March 2020 still in the service today. Crucially, in the last five years the service has increasingly lost more experienced staff; the number of officers with at least 10 years’ experience has fallen 40% since March 2020. ⁷⁴ Ministry of Justice, ‘HM Prison and Probation Service workforce quarterly: March 2025’, 2025, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/hm-prison-and-probation-service-workforce-quarterly-march-2025

One of the reasons for this may be a reduction in pay progression. Prison officer pay has increased recently at entry level, but while in the early 2010s it would take around seven years to get to the top of the band 3 officer pay band, now it only takes three. ⁷⁵ Institute for Government interviews, 2025.  This means that there are now many fewer opportunities for pay progression without promotion, encouraging staff to look elsewhere. Even where officers are being retained, they are often not retained in grade, but are instead promoted to more senior roles – meaning the experience is still absent from the frontline. This contrasts notably with policing, which has strong pay progression in-role for constables and sergeants, and a leaving rate for officers with 4–25 years’ experience (3.6%) just half that of equivalent band 3–5 prison officers (7.1%). ⁷⁶ Institute for Government analysis of Home Office, ‘Police workforce statistics March 2025’ and Ministry of Justice, ‘HM Prison and Probation Service workforce quarterly: March 2025’, 2025.  One interviewee suggested this difference in pay progression causes prisons to lose applicants and new recruits to the police. ⁷⁷ Institute for Government interview, 2024.

Relatedly, there has been a big decline in senior prison officers, with the number of senior officers per prisoner down a quarter (25%) in March 2025 compared with March 2010. ⁷⁸ Ministry of Justice, ‘HM Prison and Probation Service workforce quarterly: March 2025’, 2025, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/hm-prison-and-probation-service-workforce-quarterly-march-2025  This lack of senior and experienced staff is likely contributing to poor conditions in prisons. In previous analysis we found that prisons with a higher proportion of more senior officers typically have lower rates of violence, though this may be because senior officers tend to be more experienced, rather than because of having more senior officers per se. ⁷⁹ Rowland C and Pope T, Inside England and Wales’s prisons crisis, Institute for Government, 2025, www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/2025-03/inside-crisis-prisons-england-wales_0.pdf

Violence, deaths in custody, self-harm and protesting behaviour have all risen sharply in recent years, reaching or surpassing the record highs

Violence levels in prisons are very high and rising rapidly. There were more than 30,000 assault incidents in 2024, the second-highest figure on record.^* Serious assaults have also been racing up, with a 12% year-on-year rise in 2024, following a 25% increase in 2023. Overall, serious assaults are 58% higher than in 2014, though slightly below peak levels.^** Assaults on staff have increased the most; up 15% in 2024 to rise above 10,000 for the first time. Serious assaults on staff have more than doubled in the last 10 years, with almost 1,000 incidents in 2024. ⁸⁰ Ministry of Justice, ‘Safety in Custody summary tables to March 2025’, 2025, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/safety-in-custody-quarterly-update-to-march-2025

_{*    The highest year is 2018, at 32,539, but this figure is not perfectly comparable as it includes some assaults
occurring in the youth custody estate, which have since been excluded from the statistics.
**    Figures before Q2 2018 include assaults in the youth estate, so these figures are not directly comparable and comparisons to figures before then may slightly understate increases and overstate declines.}

The assault rate has also been rising, particularly in women’s prisons, where it has gone from 166 assaults per 1,000 prisoners in 2014, to 560 in 2024, although the vastly greater number of men in prison means this has had little impact on the overall violence rate. The rate of serious assaults is also higher in women’s prisons, at 45 compared with 39 incidents per 1,000 prisoners. ⁸¹ Ministry of Justice, ‘Safety in Custody summary tables to March 2025’, 2025, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/safety-in-custody-quarterly-update-to-march-2025

It is hard to pin down exactly why there has been such a dramatic rise in violence, but there are specific factors that seem to contribute, which we explored earlier this year. ⁸² Rowland C and Pope T, Inside England and Wales’s prisons crisis, Institute for Government, 2025, www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/2025-03/inside-crisis-prisons-england-wales_0.pdf  High rates of overcrowding mean prisoners are living in closer proximity and there is more demand on valuable resources, from healthcare appointments and prison phones, to work and training opportunities. Our previous report found prisons which are more crowded have higher levels of violence, ⁸³ Rowland C and Pope T, Inside England and Wales’s prisons crisis, Institute for Government, 2025, www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/2025-03/inside-crisis-prisons-england-wales_0.pdf  a finding confirmed by recent MoJ analysis. ⁸⁴ Ministry of Justice, ‘The impact of overcrowding on assaults in closed adult public prisons’, 2025, www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-impact-of-overcrowding-on-assaults-in-adult-public-prisons/the-impact-of-overcrowding-on-assaults-in-closed-ad…  Insufficient purposeful activity compounds this, leaving prisoners bored and with little to do, and with limited opportunities to earn money, which can increase frustration.

“The busier you are [in prison], the less opportunity you’ve got to be involved in criminality.” – Interviewee

Drug use in prisons is currently endemic and many interviewees strongly linked this to high rates of violence. The chief inspector of prisons argued in his 2024/25 annual report that “the ingress of overwhelming amounts of illegal drugs is destabilising prisons across England and Wales… in many jails, there were seemingly uncontrolled levels of criminality that hard-pressed and often inexperienced staff were unable to contain”. ⁸⁵ HM Chief Inspector of Prisons for England and Wales, Annual report 2024–25, 2025, https://cloud-platform-e218f50a4812967ba1215eaecede923f.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/sites/19/2025/07/Annual-report-FINAL.pdf

Prisons across the country are still conducting too few random drug tests to generate reliable estimates of how many prisoners are testing positive, five years after testing resumed in September 2020 after being paused due to the pandemic. ⁸⁶ Ministry of Justice, ‘HMPPS Annual Digest, April 2024 to March 2025’, 2025, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/hmpps-annual-digest-april-2024-to-march-2025/hmpps-annual-digest-2024-to-2025--2  But in many prisons, it was above 30% in 2024/25, ⁸⁷ HM Chief Inspector of Prisons for England and Wales, Annual report 2024–25, 2025, https://cloud-platform-e218f50a4812967ba1215eaecede923f.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/sites/19/2025/07/Annual-report-FINAL.pdf.  and over 40% in at least three prisons: HMPs Hindley, ⁸⁸ HM Chief Inspector of Prisons for England and Wales, Annual report 2024–25, 2025, https://cloud-platform-e218f50a4812967ba1215eaecede923f.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/sites/19/2025/07/Annual-report-FINAL.pdf  Kirkham ⁸⁹ HM Chief Inspector of Prisons for England and Wales, HMP Kirkham, 2025, https://hmiprisons.justiceinspectorates.gov.uk/hmipris_reports/hmp-kirkham-2/  and Lowdham Grange. ⁹⁰ HM Chief Inspector of Prisons for England and Wales, ‘HMP Lowdham Grange: unsafe, violent and failing to address longstanding concerns’, press release, June 2025, https://hmiprisons.justiceinspectorates.gov.uk/news/hmp-lowdham-grange-unsafe-violent-and-failing-to-address-longstanding-concerns/  Nearly two-fifths (39%) of adult male prisoners said it was easy to get drugs in their prison; 11% said they had developed a problem with drugs or alcohol while in prison, as did almost a fifth (19%) of women. ⁹¹ HM Chief Inspector of Prisons for England and Wales, Annual report 2024–25, 2025, https://cloud-platform-e218f50a4812967ba1215eaecede923f.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/sites/19/2025/07/Annual-report-FINAL.pdf

High levels of drug use drive up violence, particularly through the enforcement of drug-related debts and organised crime groups operating inside prisons. Some interviewees said drug-related debts were used to force some prisoners to carry out violence on behalf of others, allowing ringleaders to ‘keep their hands clean’. The illicit economy in prison appears increasingly to be driven by organised criminal groups, with growing use of drones to deliver large quantities of drugs, weapons and mobile phones. ⁹² HM Chief Inspector of Prisons for England and Wales, Annual report 2024–25, 2025, https://cloud-platform-

The self-harm rate has also risen substantially. It is dramatically higher in women’s prisons, with an average of around six self-harm incidents reported per prisoner each year. Serious self-harm requiring a hospital visit is likewise higher in women’s prisons.^* High and rising assaults in women’s prisons, especially on staff, may be related to rising self-harm, as assaults may occur when staff intervene in self-harm episodes. ⁹³ Institute for Government interviews, 2025. Interviewees also highlighted high rates of serious mental health issues in women’s prisons, with some women being held in custody waiting for a secure bed in a psychiatric unit to become available. ⁹⁴ Institute for Government interviews, 2025.

_{*    Whether a self-harm incident leads to a hospital visit reflects not only how serious the incident is, but also the healthcare available on-site, which varies across different prisons.}

Protesting behaviour has likewise continued to rise sharply, particularly incidents at height (when prisoners climb on netting or roofs) and making barricades (obstructing access to part of the prison). These behaviours are typically ways that prisoners use to express frustration with how the prison is operating or to get a chance to speak to a prison officer.

This makes them a useful overall indicator of how prisons are performing, as well as the pressure on staff from managing these incidents. Incidents at height were up 9% on the previous year in 2024/25 and 38% higher than 2019/20, and barricades rose 7% year-on-year to the highest level on record. ⁹⁵ Ministry of Justice, ‘HMPPS Annual Digest, April 2024 to March 2025’ (Protesting behaviour), 2025, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/hmpps-annual-digest-april-2024-to-march-2025

There has been a substantial jump in deaths in custody in the 12 months to June 2025: up 30% on the previous 12 months, from 308 to 401 (from 3.5 to 4.6 per 1,000 prisoners). This is the second-highest 12-month period on record, following only April 2020 to March 2021. ⁹⁶ Ministry of Justice, ‘Safety in custody: quarterly update to March 2025’, 2025, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/safety-in-custody-quarterly-update-to-march-2025  For comparison, the all-cause mortality rate among the general population was 1.0 per 1,000 people between 2021 and 2023 (the most recent figures available). ⁹⁷ Office for Health Improvement and Disparities, ‘Mortality profile: November 2024 update’, 2024, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/mortality-profile-november-2024-update/mortality-profile-commentary-november-2024  While the risk profile of those in prison differs substantially from the general population, this is still a revealing contrast. Most deaths (55%) were due to natural causes, while at least 21% were self-inflicted.^* Seven deaths were homicides, the highest number in 10 years and up from an average of 1.7 from 2019 to 2024. ⁹⁸ Ministry of Justice, ‘Safety in custody: quarterly update to March 2025’, 2025, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/safety-in-custody-quarterly-update-to-march-2025

_{*    17% of deaths for the 12 months ending June 2025 are awaiting further information before the apparent cause can be classified, so these figures are likely to change in the coming months. See Ministry of Justice, ‘Safety in Custody Statistics: quarterly update to March 2025 (summary tables)’.}

Prisoners are still facing long days locked in cells, with very limited work or rehabilitative activity

‘Purposeful activity’ traditionally refers to time spent by prisoners engaged in work, education, rehabilitative programmes, health programmes such as substance misuse treatment, or any other meaningful activity that helps prisoners improve their skills or wellbeing, or reduces their likelihood of reoffending. In 2022, HM Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS) expanded its definition of purposeful activity to include ‘tier two extra-curricular enrichment activity’ such as recreational PE (beyond the minimum guaranteed hour per week), structured hobbies or interest groups, and in-cell activities like ‘distraction packs’, containing puzzles and similar activities. ⁹⁹ Ministry of Justice, ‘Closed Prison Regime Plan Guidance’, Inside Time, 2 June 2025, https://insidetime.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/FoI_Inside_Time_NRM_land2.pdf

Purposeful activity was on a steady downward trajectory from 2009/10 to 2019/20, and then was almost completely stopped during the pandemic. It has been slow to recover and appears to have backslid in the last year. In 2023/24, the median prison had 67% of prisoners in at least part-time purposeful activity (four or more sessions a week). ¹⁰⁰ Ministry of Justice, ‘Annual Prison Performance Ratings 2023-24 Supplementary Tables’, 2024, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/prison-performance-ratings-2023-to-2024  In 2024/25, this had dropped to just 60%, and a quarter of prisons (26%) had less than half of prisoners in purposeful activity. ¹⁰¹ Ministry of Justice, ‘Annual Prison Performance Ratings 2024-25 Supplementary Tables’, 2025, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/prison-performance-ratings-2024-to-2025  The proportion of prisoners in drug or alcohol treatment has stayed flat since 2021/22, about 7 percentage points below 2019/20. ¹⁰² Office for Health Improvement and Disparities, ‘Substance misuse treatment in secure settings: 2023 to 2024’, 2025.

Starts and completions of accredited programmes, rehabilitative interventions intended to address reoffending risk, were mostly flat year-on-year in 2024/25, just below pre-pandemic levels. ¹⁰³ Ministry of Justice, ‘Prison Education and Accredited Programme Statistics 2024 to 2025’, 2025.  Prisoners are spending large amounts of time in their cells, which limits their opportunities to take part in structured work, education or courses, or to exercise or visit the prison library. The prisons inspectorate found that more than two-thirds of prisoners (68%) spent less than six hours out of their cell per weekday in 2023/24, with a quarter (24%) unlocked for less than two hours. ¹⁰⁴ HM Chief Inspector of Prisons for England and Wales, Purposeful prisons: time out of cell, 2024, https://cloud-platform-e218f50a4812967ba1215eaecede923f.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/sites/19/2024/09/Purposeful-prisons-time-out-of-cell-web-2024.pdf

Rates of participation in purposeful activity vary dramatically across prisons, with open prisons and specialist prisons holding sex offenders having much higher participation rates than other prisons.^* Reception prisons perform the worst, with under half of prisoners getting the new minimum of two hours out of their cell each day in 2024/25 and just 40% of prisoners in at least part-time purposeful activity. ¹⁰⁵ HM Chief Inspector of Prisons for England and Wales, Annual report 2024–25, 2025, https://cloud-platform-e218f50a4812967ba1215eaecede923f.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/sites/19/2025/07/Annual-report-FINAL.pdf  Divisions between other prison categories have become more blurred. Training prisons are intended to provide prisoners with more opportunities to work or gain skills, to improve their chance of employment on release. Increasingly, however, there is often little distinction between training prisons and other prisons.

Declines in the last year have been remarkably consistent across prison categories, with even open prisons now performing significantly worse on average and a dramatic deterioration in reception prisons. Open prisons now have 89% of prisoners in at least part-time purposeful activity, down from 96% in 2023/24, while reception prisons have gone from 58% to 40%. Women’s prisons have also been badly affected, down from 80% to 68%.

_{*    There are specialist sex offender prisons across different security categories; these are not specifically identified in figure CJS 4.17.}

Overcrowding continues to put significant pressure on available activity spaces, with many prisons lacking sufficient workshop facilities or jobs for the large number of prisoners they are currently holding. Physical space is a limiting factor for many prisons, as is the availability of non-prison officer staff like teachers and trainers. ¹⁰⁶ Institute for Government interviews, 2025.  Prison culture and leadership is also crucial, particularly when it comes to wide variation in access to purposeful activity within categories of prisons. High-performing governors and staff teams in prisons that do well set and maintain standards and effectively motivate prisoners to engage in activity and behave well. ¹⁰⁷ HM Chief Inspector of Prisons for England and Wales, Annual report 2024–25, 2025, https://cloud-platform-e218f50a4812967ba1215eaecede923f.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/sites/19/2025/07/Annual-report-FINAL.pdf  Our previous analysis also found that having more non-prison officer staff like offender managers (who develop sentence plans with prisoners and help them prepare for release) is associated with higher levels of purposeful activity. ¹⁰⁸ Rowland C and Pope T, Inside England and Wales’s prisons crisis, Institute for Government, 2025, www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/2025-03/inside-crisis-prisons-england-wales_0.pdf

Interviewees suggested that at least some prisons are starting to improve time out of cell for prisoners and participation in purposeful activity. They cited improvements in staffing levels and consistent emphasis from the prisons inspectorate on the importance of purposeful activity as drivers of this. One interviewee suggested that the national regime model, which was introduced in 2024/25 by the Sunak government and requires all prisons to deliver at least two hours out of cell a day, ¹⁰⁹ Ministry of Justice, ‘Closed Prison Regime Plan Guidance’, Inside Time, 2 June 2025, https://insidetime.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/FoI_Inside_Time_NRM_land2.pdf  may also be encouraging a greater focus on time out of cell, but data is not yet available to say what effect this is having.

But even where progress has been made towards a more normal regime, it is often inconsistent and unreliable. Some prisoners may have longer out of their cell on average, but this can vary dramatically day to day, meaning prisoners have little certainty or sense of structure. ¹¹⁰ Institute for Government interviews, 2025.  Workshops and other activities are often cancelled if a member of staff is unavailable, even for planned absences. Prisoners feel like they cannot rely on basic things like being transported to healthcare appointments. ¹¹¹ Institute for Government interviews, 2025.  All this creates significantfrustration and uncertainty for prisoners.

“To reduce violence, prisons need to deliver on regimes – if they say they are going to do something they need to do it. Not paper regimes which are a million miles away from what gets delivered on the ground.” – Interviewee

The share of prisoners in drug or alcohol treatment has also fallen, despite concerns about drug use in prisons being at record levels. ¹¹² Office for Health Improvement and Disparities, ‘Substance misuse treatment in secure settings: 2023 to 2024’, 2025.  The prisons inspectorate has been critical of existing drug and alcohol treatment in custody, arguing that while “incentivised drug-free living wings had been established in most prisons… few were fulfilling their function”. ¹¹³ HM Chief Inspector of Prisons for England and Wales, Annual report 2024–25, 2025, https://cloud-platform-e218f50a4812967ba1215eaecede923f.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/sites/19/2025/07/Annual-report-FINAL.pdf

Implementing the proposed ‘earned progression’ model will be extremely challenging in this context

Based on the recommendations from David Gauke’s sentencing review, published in May 2025, the government plans to introduce an ‘earned progression’ model in prisons, which will allow prisoners to be released after serving a third of their sentence in custody in return for good behaviour. They would then serve another third under restrictions in the community, similar to current home detention arrangements, and have minimal supervision for the final third. ¹¹⁴ Ministry of Justice, Sentencing Bill 2025, 2025, www.gov.uk/government/publications/sentencing-bill-2025

In principle, there are strong arguments for an earned progression model, which could provide better incentives for good behaviour in custody. Existing incentives are widely believed to be inadequate ¹¹⁵ Institute for Government interviews, 2025. ^{, 116} HM Chief Inspector of Prisons for England and Wales, Annual report 2024–25, 2025, https://cloud-platform-e218f50a4812967ba1215eaecede923f.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/sites/19/2025/07/Annual-report-FINAL.pdf  and there are insufficient opportunities for prisoners to demonstrate a reduced risk of reoffending and so improve their chances of being approved for open conditions or release by the parole board. This is particularly significant for those serving indeterminate or extended determinate sentences, who must apply to the parole board for release.

However, the current situation in prisons would make an earned progression model extremely difficult to implement. The lack of access to purposeful activity would make it both unfair and unworkable to link release to engagement in activity. Given the urgent need to reduce the prison population, the government is instead likely to set a presumption of release after a third of the sentence, which can be lost in response to poor behaviour, rather than needing to be earned in return for good behaviour. This would effectively be an extension of the current system, and would thus be unlikely to lead to major changes in prisoner behaviour, particularly as the bar will have to be quite high to lose early release if the reforms are to have the necessary impact on the prison population.

“The dislocation between the very laudable aim of rehabilitation and what is actually happening on the ground is really stark… [the proposed reforms] are wildly ambitious in terms of what we think operationally can be delivered in a system that is in as bad a shape as it currently is.” – Interviewee

The inconsistent enforcement of rules across the estate and poor relationships between prisoners and officers mean that prisoners are unlikely to have much faith in the system devised to decide on eligibility for release, particularly if it is a decision made directly by prison officers. Adjudications, the process for sanctioning prisoners currently, are widely considered unfair and illegitimate by prisoners, and this would be significantly amplified if it is linked to release. ¹¹⁷ Institute for Government interviews, 2025.  For instance, often both inhabitants in a shared cell will be subject to adjudication if drugs are found in the cell, or anyone involved in a physical altercation regardless of who was the aggressor. ¹¹⁸ Institute for Government interviews, 2025.  This could cause greater deterioration in relationships between officers and prisoners, and further inflame tensions.

People working in and around prisons are broadly supportive of the proposed changes in principle, from prison officers to prison reform charities. ¹¹⁹ Institute for Government interviews, 2025.  This provides a potential opportunity to turn things around and refocus prisons on rehabilitation as well as punishment, as the government has indicated it wants to do – but practical implementation feels extremely difficult given the extraordinary challenges prisons are currently facing.