Crisis response checklist: How well is the government managing the Iran crisis?

In February the US, alongside Israel, launched a surprise attack on Iran, which responded by disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Around 20% of global petroleum and liquified natural gas normally passes through the Strait every year, with limited alternative routes. The resulting supply shock has pushed up oil and gas prices and led to fuel shortages in parts of the world. Other goods have also been affected, particularly agricultural fertilizer and petrochemicals, with knock-on impacts on food prices which are already being felt in the UK. 

It was reported in mid-April that the government has drawn up contingency plans and rehearsed reasonable worst-case scenarios for the impact on British industry if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed by June. ¹² Allegretti A, Britain preparing for food shortages as Iran war bites, The Times, 15 April 2026, www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/iran-war-hormuz-uk-supermarkets-food-shortages-chicken-g620j8xrg?t=1779459085209  With June fast approaching and no sign of the Strait reopening, the economic impacts are likely only to increase in the short to medium term. And even if the Strait reopens, supply is likely to continue to be disrupted to some extent for years as repairs are made to key infrastructure.

The IfG has an extensive body of research on how government can be better prepared for, and respond well to, crises. This 15-point checklist draws this together and highlights the critical components of a successful response.

While public information on the government’s response to the crisis in many areas is limited, our analysis suggests that when it comes to preparedness the government had done well at identifying the risk of this kind of supply disruption and setting out clear departmental responsibilities ahead of time. But it was less effective at ensuring critical data was available to allow it to target support at those who need it most, although it had been trying to rectify this problem.

In terms of responding to the crisis, the government has set up coordinating mechanisms at the centre to manage the response, as we recommended, and has also reportedly been drawing up and rehearsing contingency plans – critical to a successful response. But its communication with the public has not been consistent, nor appropriate to the scale of the crisis. Avoiding response measures that were counterproductive or worked against its longer-term aims was the right approach, but the recent decision to extend the current fuel duty freeze again will dull the price signal for motorists to respond to the current supply shock as well as work against the government’s goal to electrify road transport.

Preparedness

Responding to a crisis well is easier if government has laid the foundations in advance by:

Identifying potential risks [  ]

Officials need to be clear about what risks the country might face, the likelihood of those happening, and what impacts they might have on different groups and organisations. 

Collecting data needed for monitoring or targeting measures [  ]

Ensuring relevant data is accessible is critical to allow government to monitor developments and respond effectively. 

Setting out clear departmental responsibilities [  ]

Clear departmental responsibilities are important to avoid duplication or issues falling through the cracks. The government assigns a lead department for each risk it identifies.

Establishing key networks [  ]

When a crisis hits it is important to be able to quickly consult key experts and stakeholders to assess the most critical issues and rapidly stress test solutions. This is much easier if mechanisms to consult them quickly are in place before a crisis starts.

Immediate response

At the start of a crisis the government needs to get into gear quickly by:

Putting in place coordinating mechanisms [  ]

These are crucial to coordinate across departments and allow decisions to be taken quickly, particularly when it comes to difficult issues like where to allocate resources or navigating trade-offs. They should be in place at the centre of government and departmental level.

Bringing in the right expertise [  ]

The UK policy-making process is often described as ‘too closed’ with too little external engagement. ¹⁷ Worlidge J, Urban J, Clyne R, Thomas A, 20 ways to improve the civil service, Institute for Government, 2024, www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/ways-improve-civil-service ¹⁸ Sasse T and Thomas A, Better Policymaking, Institute for Government, 2022, www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/better-policy-making  Having the right mix of skills and expertise within key teams is also vital. Ministerial and senior official leadership and pre-existing networks can make a critical difference in providing cover for a different team model and approach to engagement during a crisis. 

Involving implementers [  ]

Another common issue in policy making is that implementation expertise is not brought in early enough. ¹⁹ Worlidge J, Urban J, Clyne R, Thomas A, 20 ways to improve the civil service, Institute for Government, 2024, www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/ways-improve-civil-service ²⁰ Sasse T and Thomas A, Better Policymaking, Institute for Government, 2022, www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/better-policy-making  This is particularly important during a crisis when policies often have to be implemented at pace. An example of doing this well would be the close working between HMT and HMRC while developing the pandemic furlough scheme.

Ongoing response

After the initial set up has been completed governments can manage crises well through:

Clear leadership [  ]

The Institute’s work on ministerial leadership in crises found that ministers play a critical role in providing clarity on aims and direction, getting different actors to work together, providing cover to officials and responding agencies, and challenging assumptions. 

Consistent messaging appropriate to the scale of the crisis [  ]

Ministers do not want to unnecessarily alarm the public or spark panic buying. But they do need to ensure that the public and businesses are aware of the severity of the threat and any actions they can or should take to mitigate personal or collective risks.

Contingency plans for specific sectors under a range of scenarios [  ]

The government should also be preparing contingency plans for critical sectors across a range of scenarios so that it can respond quickly as the crisis develops.

Real-time monitoring of developments [  ]

As far as possible government should try to monitor developments in real time so that issues can be dealt with quickly.

Learning lessons from past crises [  ]

It is important to learn lessons from previous responses to a range of crises. 

Ensuring response measures do not conflict with longer-term aims [  ]

It is important to ensure that, as far as possible, response measures do not conflict with the government’s long-term aims and that there are mechanisms for handing over non-urgent policy issues to the right teams.

Putting mechanisms in place to ensure longer-term issues are not lost [ ]

A narrow focus on responding to the current crisis can be critical to a quick response. But it can also mean that critical, but non-urgent, issues that emerge during the crisis remain unresolved. It is important to make sure that that these issues are handed over for proper policy consideration to the right teams.

Putting plans in place to support teams [  ]

Although crises can initially motivate people working on the response, they can also be very taxing, particularly if the crisis continues over a long period of time. It is important that departments have plans in place to support key personnel to avoid high turnover and declining morale. 

When judged against our recommendations for effective preparedness and response to crises, where public information is available the government’s performance has been inconsistent. It deserves credit for identifying the possible risks and setting out clear departmental responsibilities for handling the response, but inconsistent use of data and an incoherent communications strategy have created – and will store up – problems for the government as the crisis moves into June. There is more that ministers should be doing to manage the response well, as the unticked boxes in our checklist reveal.