Introduction: How the government can design better asylum policy

Asylum proved to be one of the most politically salient – and divisive – issues of the 2019–24 parliament. It was also one of the hardest for the government to manage. The number of people making the dangerous journey across the English Channel in small boats, most of whom go on to successfully claim asylum, increased from the low hundreds in and before 2018 to nearly 46,000 in 2022. ²² Home Office, ‘Irregular migration to the UK detailed dataset, year ending March 2024’, GOV.UK, 23 May 2024, www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/irregular-migration-detailed-dataset-and-summary-tables; Refugee Council, The Truth about Channel Crossings and the impact of the Illegal Migration Act, October 2023, www.refugeecouncil.org.uk/information/resources/the-truth-about-channel-crossings-and-the-impact-of-the- illegal-migration-act ²³ The Migration Observatory, ‘People crossing the English Channel in small boats’, 28 June 2024, https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/people-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats  The number of people waiting long periods for a decision on their asylum applications, and in need of accommodation and support in the meantime, also rose sharply – reaching more than 175,457 people in 2023. ²⁴ Home Office ‘Asylum applications awaiting a decision detailed datasets, year ending March 2024’, GOV.UK, 13 June 2024, www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables (figure includes dependants).  

This has come as the number of forcibly displaced people in need of protection has also been increasing around the world, by over 600% since the turn of the century. ²⁵ UNHCR, ‘Refugee Data Finder’, 2024, (no date), www.unhcr.org/refugee-statistics/download/?url=4zeHOp  The UN has recognised that the links between conflict and climate change will play a growing role in forced displacement, with 70% of refugees and asylum seekers fleeing from countries that are highly vulnerable to environmental change in 2022. ²⁶ UNHCR, Focus Area Strategic Plan for Climate Action 2024–2030, March 2024, https://reporting.unhcr.org/climate-action-focus-area-strategic-plan-2024-2030  

Policies governing the asylum system will remain at the forefront of British politics in the new parliament. It continues to be one of the most important problems for the government to handle in the eyes of voters. And its potential to boil over and intersect with far-right politics was laid bare by the horrific events following the murder of three children in Stockport, wrongly attributed to an asylum seeker, that sparked some of the worst riots seen in the UK for more than a decade. ²⁷ Sinmaz E and Vinter R, ‘Rioters try to torch Rotherham asylum seeker hotel amid far-right violence’, The Guardian, 4 August 2024, www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/aug/04/rioters-try-to-torch-rotherham-asylum-seeker-hotel-amid-far-right-violence

The problems with asylum policy are not new. Successive governments, both Conservative and Labour, for decades have struggled with a familiar cycle: growing applications and backlogs (under Blair, surpassing 125,000, and exceeding this figure under Sunak ²⁸ The Migration Observatory, ‘The UK’s asylum backlog’, 3 May 2024, https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/the-uks-asylum-backlog ); the emergence of new uncontrolled or irregular migration routes and high-profile migrant camps (lorry crossings in the 2000s, and then the Calais ‘jungle’ refugee camp in 2010s); and ineffective attempts to address these problems amid a heated political environment (made much harder since 2016 by Brexit). 

As prime minister, Keir Starmer recognised these tensions in his 2024 party conference speech, stating that a robust asylum process must both grant some people asylum and return others. But we have not heard much detail, beyond pledges to ‘smash the smuggling gangs’, on how his government intends to make that system more robust. 

This report, the latest in the Institute’s series looking at chronic policy problems, seeks to address that by answering two questions that form the basis of its two parts: why has asylum become a chronic policy problem in the UK – and how could asylum policy be made more effectively?