Smokefree generation: How to turn manifesto promises into tangible results

Labour’s manifesto promised “to tackle the biggest killers and support people to live longer, healthier lives”. ⁶⁷ Labour Party, Change. Labour Party Manifesto 2024, https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Labour-Party-manifesto-2024.pdf  This includes an ambitious pledge to create a “smokefree generation” – through the Tobacco and Vapes Bill ⁶⁸ House of Commons, Tobacco and Vapes Bill, Session 2024-25, https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3879  – which would make it illegal to sell tobacco products to anyone born on or after 1 January 2009. This bill was first introduced by the Sunak government in 2023 ⁶⁹ House of Commons, Tobacco and Vapes Bill, Session 2023-24, https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3703  but was shelved when the general election was called. The resurrected bill comfortably passed its third reading in the Commons last week and is now making its way through the Lords.  

Public activism drove an ambitious smoking ban under the last Labour government  

By the early 2000s decades of public engagement, and activists and health professionals raising awareness, led to a boom in support for anti-smoking legislation. The Blair government followed public opinion and – in 2004 – proposed a ban on smoking in enclosed public places and workplaces. ⁷⁰ Department of Health, Choosing Health: Making healthy choices easier, Cm 6374, 2004, https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ukgwa/+/dh.gov.uk/en/publicationsandstatistics/publications/publicationspolicyandguidance/dh_4094550  But due to concerns about enforcement and the economic fallout – including from health secretary John Reid – the government carved out exemptions for non-food pubs, bars and membership clubs, which made it into the 2005 Labour manifesto. ⁷¹ Labour Party, Britain forward not back. The Labour Party manifesto 2005, https://general-election-2010.co.uk/2005-general-election-manifestos/Labour-Party-Manifesto-2005.pdf   

This ‘hybrid’ smoking ban, put forward in the 2005 Health Bill ⁷² House of Commons, Health Bill, Session 2005-06, https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200506/cmbills/069/2006069.htm , was a ‘halfway house’ that satisfied no one. Campaigners and experts remained squarely in favour of a total ban and the hospitality industry opposed applying different standards to different businesses. ⁷³ Rutter J, Sims S and Marshall E, The ‘S’ Factors: Lessons from IfG’s policy success reunions, 2011, https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/report/s-factors  An inquiry by the Commons Health Committee concluded – inspired by evidence of successful comprehensive bans elsewhere, most notably in Ireland – that the government’s proposed exemptions were “unfair, unjust, inefficient and unworkable”. ⁷⁴ House of Commons Health Committee, Smoking in Public Places: First Report of Session 2005-06, Vol. I (HC 485-I), The Stationery Office, 2005, https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200506/cmselect/cmhealth/485/485.pdf  In February 2006, an amended version of the bill introducing completely smokefree enclosed public spaces passed in a free vote in the Commons – by a majority of 200 – and the law came into effect the following year.

More than 15 years on, the ban on smoking in public places is seen as a standout policy success: it has stuck, is widely complied with and now largely accepted with no real risk of reversal. Evidence suggests the policy has led to fewer smoking-related hospital admissions, a decline in the number of smokers, reduced exposure to second-hand smoke and no clear negative impacts on the hospitality industry. ⁷⁵ Sims M, Maxwell R, Bauld L and Gilmore A, ‘Short-term impact of smoke-free legislation in England: retrospective analysis of hospital admissions for myocardial infarction’, BMJ 2010; 340:c2161, https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.c2161 ⁷⁶ Bauld L, ‘The Impact of Smokefree Legislation in England: Evidence Review’, Department of Health and Social Care, GOV.UK, 2011, https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/impact-of-smokefree-legislation-evidence-review-march-2011 ⁷⁷ Institute for Policy Research, ‘The impact of smokefree legislation (‘the smoking ban’): evidence from research’, University of Bath, https://www.bath.ac.uk/publications/the-impact-of-smokefree-legislation-the-smoking-ban-evidence-from-research/

Labour’s smokefree generation legislation reflects the public mood and has had a remarkably smooth journey so far  

Compared to New Labour’s initial hybrid smoking ban, the Starmer government’s ‘smokefree generation’ legislation has caused less controversy. Inherited from the previous government and amassing substantial cross-party support, the policy’s ambition enjoys more consensus from the get-go than the Blair government’s ‘halfway house’ smoking ban proposal had in 2005.  

With both MPs and the public on its side, the Tobacco and Vapes Bill’s passage has been smooth. It sailed through its second reading in November on a majority of 368 ⁷⁸ House of Commons, Tobacco and Vapes Bill. Division 48: held on Tuesday 26 November 2024, https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2024-11-26/division/57BE13FD-90E6-4E73-A0D2-D19AD2084650/TobaccoAndVapesBill – and its third reading on 325 ⁷⁹ House of Commons, Tobacco and Vapes Bill. Division 155: held on Wednesday 26 March 2025, https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2025-03-26/division/B364978C-40C7-4E72-A9E1-22BAF97CB79D/TobaccoAndVapesBill  – with no major changes to its prescriptions. Polling conducted last year reveals 61% of British adults support the policy, with only 27% opposing it. ⁸⁰ Difford D, ‘Would Britons support an outdoor smoking ban?’, YouGov, 2024, https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50442-would-britons-support-an-outdoor-smoking-ban

Building lasting cross-party consensus will now be key if the policy is to stick

However, even as it is placed on the statute book, the government’s smokefree generation policy is vulnerable in ways the 2007 smoking ban was not. Cross-party consensus on the legislation, though currently strong, is not a given. Kemi Badenoch, one of the few cabinet ministers who voted against Sunak’s bill, ⁸¹ House of Commons, Tobacco and Vapes Bill. Division 123: held on Tuesday 16 April 2024, https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2024-04-16/division/D1D5C2F0-550F-4E63-9CA6-6AE196CC8D9E/TobaccoAndVapesBill  is now the leader of the Conservative Party – and more Conservative MPs opposed than supported the Tobacco and Vapes Bill in its third reading. ⁸² House of Commons, Tobacco and Vapes Bill. Division 155: held on Wednesday 26 March 2025, https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2025-03-26/division/B364978C-40C7-4E72-A9E1-22BAF97CB79D/TobaccoAndVapesBill  Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has also vocally opposed the ban, citing concerns about ‘nanny statism’ and the arbitrary age cut-off ⁸³ Harris K, ‘Nigel Farage declares ‘spirit of Cromwell alive and well’ as he erupts at smoking ban’, MSN, 2025, https://www.msn.com/en-gb/travel/news/nigel-farage-declares-spirit-of-cromwell-alive-and-well-as-he-erupts-at-smoking-ban/ar-AA1BIJrM   ⁸⁴ Farage N, ‘‘Anti-fun’ Labour is affecting our day-to-day lives with nanny-state agenda… no wonder voters are turning to us’, The Sun, 2025, https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/34057098/nigel-farage-anti-fun-labour-nanny-state/  – and, polling suggests, some 48% of 2024 Reform voters agreed with him. ⁸⁵ Difford D, ‘Would Britons support an outdoor smoking ban?’, YouGov, 2024, https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50442-would-britons-support-an-outdoor-smoking-ban  Although the policy is popular with the general public, it is novel and untested. There are no success stories to draw on from elsewhere, making it harder to address opposition and specific sticking points.

In this respect, the unexpected repeal of a similar world-leading policy in New Zealand offers a cautionary tale. The Smokefree Environments and Regulated Products (Smoked Tobacco) Amendment Act 2022 ⁸⁶ Parliamentary Counsel Office, Smokefree Environments and Regulated Products (Smoked Tobacco) Amendment Act 2022, https://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/2022/0079/latest/whole.html  enjoyed cross-partisan support and even higher levels of public backing than in the UK when it was passed (78%). ⁸⁷ Edwards R, Johnson E, Stanley J et al, ‘Support for New Zealand's Smokefree 2025 goal and key measures to achieve it: findings from the ITC New Zealand Survey’, Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health, 2021, 45:6, https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1753-6405.13129  In the run-up to the 2023 election, neither of New Zealand’s major parties – Labour and the National Party – campaigned on the issue and repeal was never on the cards. But after the election, it became an unexpected casualty of coalition negotiations: the National Party agreed to reverse the tobacco control legislation before its ‘smokefree generation’ provision could come into effect as part of its deal with the ACT and New Zealand First parties – with only the latter including repeal in its manifesto. ⁸⁸ New Zealand First, New Zealand First 2023 Policies, https://www.nzfirst.nz/2023_policies

New Zealand’s experience shows that solid cross-party consensus is essential if Labour’s plans to tackle smoking are to survive in the long term. The government needs to engage critics and sceptics, in parliament and beyond, to address any sticking points and futureproof the legislation. If support for the policy is not ‘locked in’, the government’s plan to create the first ever ‘smokefree generation’ risks being stopped in its tracks – or reversed by a future government.