Can Kemi Badenoch bring optimism to the Conservative Party Conference?

Almost a year ago, those who attended both Labour and Conservative conferences were making a strange observation. While Labour delegates – fresh from a huge general election victory – were downbeat, the Conservatives, out of government for the first time in 14 years, brought a buzz of excitement to their party conference.

But if the drama of a leadership election was enough to sustain the Conservatives in Birmingham, the same is not true this year. Manchester will feel very different.

The Conservative Party meets at a very difficult time

The challenges facing the Conservative Party hardly need restating. Reform have been polling ahead Kemi Badenoch’s party since January and went on to achieve remarkable success in May’s local elections. Since then the polling gap has only widened. While some historic election results have been worse than the party’s current polling (it achieved less than 10% of the vote in the 2019 European elections, as opposed to 16% in Politico’s latest poll of polls for Westminster voting intention), the Conservative Party has never seen such sustained low poll ratings.

Add to this the sense of momentum created by Reform’s drip-drip of defections – recently unveiling former Conservative ministers, and shadow frontbencher Danny Kruger – and the threat to the Conservative Party is clear. For the first time in its existence, the party gathers for an annual conference with no guarantee that it will be a serious contender at the next election.

It is hard to overstate what a shock this is for party which prides itself on its historic success. This mood will hang over conference, only to be worsened if, as appears likely, Reform use the occasion to unveil another big-name defector.

Suffering in the polls, struggling to be heard and increasingly dismissed by commentators (and competitors), Conservative members are desperately hoping that the gathering in Manchester will bring some cheer.

This is Badenoch’s chance to make her case to the membership

It is easy to forget, amidst all the recent political noise, that this is Kemi Badenoch’s first conference as party leader. Having announced a policy renewal programme earlier this year, and reshuffled her shadow team over the summer, this is Badenoch’s first opportunity to set out her diagnosis of the party’s problems and plans for its future.

And the positions the party adopts still matter. Despite the momentum around Reform, it is the Conservative Party which is the official opposition. It can still have a significant impact, not least through its platform in Parliament (it was Badenoch’s questioning at the last prime minister’s questions, for example, which arguably brought the sacking of Peter Mandelson to a head). And at its conference, the national media spotlight will be firmly on the party. It is a precious opportunity – particularly in this busier and noisier political time – to shift the narrative around the party, and shape the wider political agenda.

There are promises of substantial new policy – which also bring risk

It is perhaps with that in mind that the conference promises to be policy-heavy, with an expectation of announcements from the policy review process. Some have been announced – or heavily trailed – in advance. Badenoch has this week pledged to repeal the Climate Change Act, for example, and has all but confirmed that the party will support withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights.

But here too lies risk. Such policies make some more liberal-minded Conservatives (both in Parliament and among the public) deeply uncomfortable – and it is the Liberal Democrats’ explicit strategy to attract such people. The risk is that this conference only accelerates the splintering of the Conservative vote, to both the left and right, rather than uniting it around the Badenoch prospectus.

The conference fringe could bring problems for Badenoch

Given the range of views, and the rumblings of disquiet in the party, events on the fringe will be worth following closely. With Badenoch signalling a new focus on the economy and public finances – insisting hers is the only party committing to fiscal sustainability – the shadow chief secretary to the Treasury will have the chance to make this case at an IfG event on the subject on Monday morning. We will also be exploring areas where the party has said less – discussing public services with shadow justice and education ministers on Tuesday afternoon, as well as how to reform of the state.

But it is not just policy discussion which makes the fringe eventful. These events are a way to get a real sense of the party’s mood. The hundreds of panel sessions and drinks receptions are opportunities for members to make their voices heard, including directly to frontbenchers. It is no surprise that James Cleverly, returned to the shadow cabinet in July’s reshuffle and popular with members, is speaking at a significant number of events, as is shadow justice secretary Robert Jenrick. While speculation about his leadership ambitions has lessened recently, every word he says will be widely reported.

All of these factors – Reform, controversial policies, ambitious colleagues – could make for a tricky conference for Badenoch. She will be hoping that members will still leave more optimistic about the year ahead.