Burnham will need to work hard to avoid his time being consumed by foreign affairs

Keir Starmer warned his (all but certain) successor that he could not shrug off foreign policy. But the cancellation of the EU summit planned for 22 July means that the first big international gathering for Burnham will come if he decides to attend the UN General Assembly in New York in late September. Although the norm is for leaders to attend and give speeches, and it might prove useful for some initial meetings, Burnham may decide to let his foreign secretary go.  November sees a meeting of the European Political Community in Ireland (which also holds the current EU Presidency) – so an easy trip and a good opportunity to meet European leaders – and COP31 in Turkey, ap platform for Burnham to give an early signal of whether or not climate change is a priority. Then, in December, there is a US hosted meeting of the G20 – which the UK takes over next year.

Those are just the international set-pieces. Keir Starmer also added in a lot of bilateral and multilateral visits as prime minister. Some of his early ones were sport-related (and he may be hoping to end his premiership with a trip to the World Cup Final). This week he attended Bastille Day celebrations in Paris, coinciding with a “Coalition of the Willing” meeting which he co-convenes with the French President.

And despite his relative reluctance to prioritise foreign policy, Burnham will need to establish good relations with his European counterparts – and will not want to wait until November to do so. He will – at some point – also need to meet the secretary general of NATO, Mark Rutte. Since Burnham has stressed continuity on Ukraine, it’s possible that the “Don’t look Back in Anger” tour – designed to reset relationships with the electorate – he is promising for August may include a stopover in Kyiv to meet fellow t-shirt wearer Volodomyr Zelenskyy.

Burnham will need to decide how much effort to put into the EU reset

The key question though for Burnham will be when to schedule the summit with the EU.  This had been planned (though not for long) for 22 July before it was cancelled by the EU side. It is supposed to be landing some of the deals that the outgoing prime minister claimed were nearly secured over 13 months ago at his first summit. Thus far, the UK has precious little to show for its reset, and reports abound that the going is still hard.

Burnham has said he wants closer relations with the EU – but also that he wants to stick with the manifesto red lines. Evidence to date suggests that means a lot of effort (and money) for meagre reward. One early question for the Burnham team is how much personal effort he puts into pulling this reset over the line, and what price he is prepared to pay for that – and how much emphasis he puts on further rounds of reset. He will look at the effort put in by Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves – and the meagre results – and wonder what, if anything, he can do differently, with the Starmer government’s warm rhetoric towards the EU producing few concrete improvements in UK/EU arrangements.

Burnham should not rush toward the US President

The big unknown is what the Trump-Burnham relationship will look like. The US government is already expressing views on some of his cabinet picks and policy choices – but is probably relieved that Jonathan Powell has agreed to stay on.

Thus far Trump has been dismissive of Burnham, but it’s just possible that – just as Trump has struck up an implausibly warm relationship with Zohran Mamdani, the “democratic socialist” mayor of New York –Trump finds he likes “very liberal” Burnham, another winner with a populist touch and a liking for the camera. The problem for Burnham, as for Starmer, is that he has little to offer the US President and sources of tension – not least on tech regulation – are rising. We are out of state visits to offer (though there is still a Trump ask on the Open golf).

There seems little mileage in trying to get an early audience at the White House – not least with the US preoccupation with the mid-terms. If Burnham wants to cut down on international visits, this is where to start. If he wants to go to North America, he would be much better advised to sit down and compare notes with Mark Carney in Canada on how he is managing to maintain/increase public support.

Burnham would benefit from a weighty foreign secretary

Foreign affairs loom unavoidably large for any modern prime minister simply because so much is now transacted at head of government level and substitutes don’t have the clout to step up. But a big hitter foreign secretary, with the clear authority of the PM behind them, can take a lot of the load from a more domestically focused PM. Rishi Sunak pulled that off to an extent with the appointment of David Cameron. Keir Starmer overshadowed his foreign secretaries. Burnham could well benefit from giving the job to someone he can trust to represent him on a regular basis on the world stage. Starmer is right to say that Burnham won’t be able to shrug of foreign affairs. But the new PM has an opportunity to ensure he does not carry the weight of the world on his shoulders in the same way as Keir Starmer – and his diary – often appeared.