2022: The Institute for Government’s Year in Review

As 2021 drew to a close, Boris Johnson was facing growing pressure following the Conservatives’ defeat in the North Shropshire by-election – a vote triggered by No.10’s botched handling of the suspension of the MP Owen Paterson for paid lobbying. Much has changed in the following 12 months.

For almost a decade the default setting of British politics has been to tumult, but 2022 took the turbulence to new levels. The last 12 months have witnessed three prime ministers, four chancellors, record-breaking numbers of ministerial resignations, the death of the UK’s longest-serving monarch, a war in Europe and an unprecedented cost of living crisis.  It has also seen Sue Gray publish her long-awaited report into partygate, the suspension of government in Northern Ireland, civil servants accusing ministers of bullying and the Supreme Court reject  a second Scottish independence referendum.

This year of uncertainty and change in Whitehall and Westminster, and for people all across the UK, has provided much for the Institute for Government reflect, research and write about.

The Boris Johnson problem

The resignation of Christopher Pincher may have triggered Boris Johnson’s departure, but the issue of standards in government – and a failure to adhere to them – dogged his premiership. From the start of 2022, the IfG warned that Boris Johnson’s partygate problems would not end with Sue Gray’s report, even as its publication was delayed by the belated decision of the Metropolitan Police to conduct a criminal investigation. While we argued for the importance of the principle that ministers tell the truth in parliament, former prime minister John Major used a speech at the Institute in February to warn that the Johnson’s government’s careless attitude to standards in public life was undermining the UK’s reputation abroad.    

In the end, 28 ministerial resignations over three days made Johnson’s position untenable. But the issue of how to reform standards in government remains a live one. While he has finally appointed a new independent adviser on ministerial interests, Rishi Sunak’s decision not to strengthen the adviser’s independent power to instigate inquiries without prime ministerial say-so – against the advice of the Institute – has undermined confidence in his commitment to strengthening standards in public life.

The future of the civil service

In April, the IfG argued that the government’s programme of civil service reform – the Declaration on Government – needed increased momentum, clearer plans and renewed attention from senior figures. This assessment followed the March publication of our key report arguing that the civil service urgently needs a new statutory role to clarify its purpose, reinforce its standing, enhance its accountability, and to strengthen the partnership between ministers and civil servants upon which government depends. It was welcome to see this recommendation included in Gordon Brown’s Commission on the UK's Future, published in December.

Another key report published in March argued for stronger accountability for policy advice, decisions and outcomes, more diverse and expert civil service teams, and a strengthened Cabinet Office – to agree the government’s policy programme and hold departments to account. In the autumn, we looked at how ministers’ plans for civil service headcount reductions could be achieved most effectively.

Lessons of Liz Truss

Liz Truss was prime minister for just 49 days, but in that short time her attitude to independent economic institutions and approach to evidence-based policy gave the IfG much cause for concern. Her decision to block the publication of an OBR assessment of her economic plans contributed to the shredding of their credibility. But Truss and her chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng went further than merely rejecting economic orthodoxy – they disregarded the accepted norms of good government.

The backlash against the mini-budget saw Truss lose any remaining trust within her party and the country, and left Conservative MPs with no choice but to demand her resignation. Her struggles as prime minister exposed the flaws in allowing party members to elect leaders – a lesson on which both the Conservatives and Labour parties should now reflect.

Rishi Sunak's in-tray

Rishi Sunak has inherited a daunting in-tray, including an unprecedented cost of living crisis, nationwide strikes, and a double digit Labour poll lead. As our annual IfG/CIPFA Performance Tracker showed, public services – which in most cases were already worse than when the Conservatives came to power in 2010 – won’t have returned to pre-pandemic performance levels by the next election. We warned that any attempt to re-run the austerity programme of the 2010s will be far harder this time around.

Saving money, and “hard coding” a growth agenda into his government will be priorities for Sunak, but the Conservative Party won the 2019 election on the back of a big promise to level up the country. Sunak is right to stick to the 2019 manifesto’s core promise, but we argued this year that government plans would not deliver the changes promised by Boris Johnson unless his successor showed greater ambition in tackling regional inequality. This should include giving more powers to metro mayors, a topic we explored around the UK in a series of IfG events held in Leeds, Manchester and Newcastle.

Sunak also needs to show proper commitment to the net zero agenda, tackle the UK’s energy problems, and come up with a coherent migration policy.  

The future of the UK constitution

While short-term headlines are made by resignations and rebellions, political scandals and parliamentary stand-offs, the political turmoil of recent years – combined with the strains of Brexit and the pandemic – has put the UK’s constitution under strain. But this has also created opportunities to reinvigorate UK democracy, restore trust in the political system and improve the way that government works.

This year the IfG launched a joint review of the UK constitution with Cambridge University’s Bennett Institute. As Philip Rycroft, the former permanent secretary at the Department for Exiting the European Union, argued in a guest paper for the review, decades of failure to manage constitutional change have left the UK system teetering on the edge of legitimacy. In papers published as part of the review, we have called for the government to empower parliament so that it can scrutinise legislation, and to do more power to protect the UK’s constitutional guardians.

And rather than triumph in the Supreme Court’s ruling that a second Scottish independence referendum cannot be held without Westminster’s agreement, Sunak must set out a strategy for rebuilding trust in the union.

Government in 2023

As the year ends, the relentless pace of British politics appears to have dropped off a little. But that seems unlikely to last once the festive season ends and parliament returns, and 2023 is sure to be peppered with yet more plot twists and u-turns. Our exciting Government 2023 conference, which will take place on 17 January, will explore the big issues facing government next year – do sign up to attend or watch from home.

Whatever comes next, the last 12 months have raised the bar for chaos, confusion and crises – and that is saying quite something in the recent history of British politics.