Independent review of sentencing: How to turn manifesto promises into tangible results

One of the 14 reviews promised in the Labour manifesto was an independent review of sentencing that aimed to ‘end the crisis in our prisons’. ¹⁹ Labour manifesto p. 71  In October the justice secretary, Shabana Mahmood, launched the Sentencing Review – led by one of her Conservative predecessors, David Gauke – promising that it would be “bipartisan and evidence based”. ²⁰ https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2024-10-22/debates/8D3769B7-66B7-47C0-91B3-5198D47CA532/SentencingReviewAndPrisonCapacity   

The first principle of the review is to protect the public and make sure the most serious offenders can be sent to prison. ²¹ https://www.gov.uk/government/news/landmark-sentencing-review-launched-to-end-prison-crisis  A key aim is to reverse the trend of ever-longer sentences by looking into ‘tough alternatives to custody’. 

New Labour’s pensions review provides inspiration on how to run an impactful policy review

In the early 2000s, pension policy was a politically sensitive issue, with the future of occupational pensions uncertain as final salary schemes were closing. Established in 2002, the Pensions Commission was set up to review the UK’s private pension regime, setting a standard for how to approach complex policy reform. 

The pension review’s success lay in its two-stage approach. First, it focused on diagnosing the problem, investigating the state of UK pensions and building consensus on the best evidence through in-depth analysis. ²² https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/pension_reform.pdf  Second, the commission crafted a balanced package of measures, weighing the costs and benefits of expanding pensions provision. Agreement on the ‘problem’ paved the way for a conversation on solutions – leading to landmark reforms like the introduction of automatic enrolment in private pensions and an increase in the state pension age. 

The commission took pains to ‘socialise’ its proposals – for example, organising a major meeting with 90 key stakeholders, including industry bodies to walk them through the analysis and proposed options. Meanwhile, the Department of Work and Pensions (DWP) held events across the UK to gather public feedback. ²³ https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/pension_reform.pdf  Engaging the political opposition early gave the commission’s final recommendations solid backing, assuring the government that both businesses and employee organisations were on side. ²⁴ https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/pension_reform.pdf    

This government's emphasis on independence and cross-party support for the sentencing review is well placed 

Starmer’s Labour government has started off strongly with its sentencing review, appointing a former Conservative cabinet minister who can provide the independence needed in an area as contentious as prisons reform. And, much like the Pensions Commission, this review genuinely does seem to be independent, not merely a rubber stamp for pre-determined conclusions (an accusation sometimes levelled at ‘reviews’ commissioned by ministers at the time).    

Gauke also brings valuable experience as a former justice secretary. While his appointment may not be enough to secure backing from the current shadow justice secretary, especially given his distance from today’s Conservative Party, it looks like a serious attempt at achieving the broader consensus needed for lasting reform.  

Investing in getting the evidence base right and building support for reform will now be key  

The experience of the pensions review suggests that Gauke needs to do two things to set the right course and provide the impetus for policy change. First, he’ll need to build a solid evidence base – in this case to determine when “prison works” and when it might be counterproductive, and sentencing’s role in this. Second, he’ll need to craft a coherent package of reforms that clearly shows how they connect with one another.

Crucially, he’ll need to ensure any proposals are affordable, particularly given the current fiscal constraints (something that was a stumbling block for Sir Andrew Dilnot’s proposals, in 2011, for a social care cap). Keeping the Treasury onside will be essential, along with gaining the support of other departments impacted by the justice system’s performance, as they too stand to benefit from successful reform.  

But Gauke’s challenge doesn’t stop there. He’ll also need to gauge where ministers stand on key issues – not just in the MoJ, now strengthened with Lord Timpson as prisons minister, but also in No.10, where Keir Starmer’s background as a former DPP means that strong opinions on criminal justice are almost guaranteed.

A final, crucial element: public engagement. Lengthening prison sentences often responds to public concerns about crime. Gauke will need to assure the public that their safety remains paramount, while clearly communicating how alternative approaches can lead to better outcomes.

Getting these elements right could pave the way for landmark criminal justice reforms, much like the Pensions Commission did for pension policy two decades ago.