The warmth of the government’s Brexit rhetoric is outpacing concrete progress

The UK has moved a long way from the language used at the height of parliament’s debates on Brexit and Liz Truss’s ambivalence over whether France is friend or foe. Ministers are becoming emboldened by evidence that the public is sceptical about the benefits of Brexit  ¹⁹ https://www.whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/should-the-united-kingdom-join-the-european-union-or-stay-out-of-the-european-union/ , and the realisation that Europe needs to get its act together to respond to Russian threats and US unpredictability. But while both prime minister and chancellor are speaking with new-found warmth towards the EU, it is debatable whether any progress has been made.  

Progress since the May EU-UK summit has proved one-sided

Concrete changes in EU relations have been slow to materialise. The much vaunted reset after last year’s May summit got off to a slow start, with detailed negotiations having to wait for the Commission to get the necessary mandates approved. The UK was rebuffed over participation in the first round of Security Action for Europe (SAFE) programme, leaving the Canadians to crow that they are the only non-EU/EEA country engaged, and  failed to secure an exemption for its businesses from the EU’s new carbon border adjustment mechanism – despite the intentions to link emissions trading systems which would render it nugatory. Meanwhile the EU pocketed deals on fishing rights and on UK reassociation with Erasmus (with a half billion contribution thrown in).  

While there does seem to be movement on the sanitary and phytosanitary deal and on linking emissions trading schemes – though that has been slow – negotiations are now reportedly bogged down over the fees EU students pay for studying at a UK university. It is not clear whether the EU will insist that the deals the UK wants – on SPS and ETS linkage – will have to wait on the conclusion of the deal on youth mobility. Smart money would say they would.

Reeves changed the language, but it is not yet clear how far she wants to go

In her Mais lecture  ²⁰ https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/mais-lecture-2026  the chancellor underlined the scale of the change from the Boris Johnson years. Regulatory autonomy from the EU was the prize Johnson claimed from Brexit, but Reeves has now said that regulatory divergence should be the exception, not the norm. Her position is that the UK should stay close to the regulatory hegemon with whom we share values (so not China and maybe not the US either), and that no third country trade deal can substitute for better relations with our biggest trading partner, the EU.  

What is less clear is the chancellor’s actual vision is for future relations with the EU. She set out principles to make a judgement on the costs and benefits of alignment with the EU, with a presumption of alignment. But aligning voluntarily with the EU – as Rishi Sunak’s government did in 2024 in its commitments to Northern Ireland – still requires the EU to recognise and, it will say, oversee alignment – in the way already under negotiation for SPS and energy. It may be that Reeves plans to use her principles to generate the next set of sectors to put on the negotiating list at the next summit, but her problem is that the EU has few asks in return and may not be that willing to put effort into allowing the UK more selective participation in the single market. On the other hand, the EU has agreed to formalise widespread but selective participation by the Swiss  ²¹ https://www.cer.eu/insights/new-eu-swiss-deal-what-it-means-and-lessons-it-holds-uk-eu-reset  – albeit with an acceptance of freedom of movement with safeguards and a significant budget contribution. That could be where Reeves ultimately wants the UK to end up.

The UK debate on the EU is changing  

Others in Labour are already advocating a Swiss deal.  ²² https://www.cer.eu/insights/new-eu-swiss-deal-what-it-means-and-lessons-it-holds-uk-eu-reset  Shortly after Reeves spoke, the London mayor, Sadiq Khan, went much further  ²³ https://www.repubblica.it/esteri/2026/03/19/news/interview_sadiq_khan_rejoin_eu_without_second_referendum_brexit_labour_starmer_election_commitment_p…  and called for the UK to join the single market and a customs union this parliament – with Labour campaigning to rejoin, with no referendum, at the next general election. Reeves herself used a much higher figure than the OBR’s for the costs of Brexit – 8 per cent not 4 per cent long-term cost, suggesting a much more fundamental problem than can simply be fixed by tweaking Boris Johnson’s “botched Brexit”. As Labour wakes up to the loss of support to the Greens (a potent threat in London elections), the government may find itself pulled into ever greater reset ambition. Some in the EU would welcome this, while others would have less time for UK exceptionalism and are agitating for EU-first policies which risk worsening the UK’s position.  ²⁴ https://www.politico.eu/article/eus-industry-master-plan-hits-major-roadblock/   

The past year shows it is easier to up the rhetoric than to deliver results. The past week suggests that 2029 could be another Brexit election.