The government is taking the right approach to sentencing reform

David Lammy faces his first challenge as justice secretary today, as the Sentencing Bill he inherited from his predecessor Shabana Mahmood faces its second reading in the House of Commons. The bill is principally an attempt to get to grips with the ongoing prison capacity crisis and implements many of the recommendations of the independent sentencing review, led by former Conservative justice secretary David Gauke earlier this year. This includes proposals to (mostly) abolish short sentences, reduce the amount of their sentence people spend in prison and expand powers to ban offenders from driving or visiting pubs and bars.

It is bound to be controversial, but it is the right approach. Without it, prisons will end up back in the desperate situation of last September, when the system was on the brink of failure.  

The prison capacity crisis hasn’t gone away

One of Labour’s first big decisions on entering government was launching substantial emergency early prison releases, with prisons having been operating at 99% capacity since 2023 and with under 100 spaces left in men’s prisons. There was no credible alternative to early releases.  

More than 3,000 prisoners were released early between September and October 2024, having served at least 40% of their sentence. Further emergency measures around people recalled to prison after release  ²³ https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statements/detail/2025-05-14/hcws634  and home detention  ²⁴ https://hansard.parliament.uk/lords/2024-12-10/debates/EBD78005-1D32-4707-A83E-A9B03A7F0AAA/HomeDetentionCurfewAndRequisiteAndMinimumCustodialPeriods…  have been needed since, to keep the prison population within manageable limits.  

Labour is continuing the prison building programme begun by the previous government and plans to add 14,000 spaces by 2031. But this will not be fast enough to meet growing demand for prison spaces.  The measures included in the Sentencing Bill are crucial to keep prisons functioning before new cells are built.  

The government deserves credit for facing up to the scale of the challenge

Releasing prisoners early and reducing time served in prison are generally not popular with the public, to say the least. A YouGov poll from October last year found 68% of people disapproved of Labour’s early releases  ³³ https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50677-how-do-britons-feel-about-the-first-100-days-of-labour-government and proposals for alternative sentences frequently receive critical coverage in the media.  ³⁴ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/08/09/prison-sentences-too-lenient-public-poll-crime/  As prime minister, Rishi Sunak repeatedly resisted calls to implement the same emergency release measure Shabana Mahmood announced within a few days of taking office as justice secretary.  ³⁵ https://www.itv.com/news/2024-09-10/former-justice-secretary-warned-suank-to-deliver-early-prisoner-release-scheme

In this context, Labour deserves credit for grasping the nettle and taking action appropriate to the scale of the problem. When the independent sentencing review was first published, the government only committed to implementing a few of its recommendations, which I argued at the time risked undermining the overall goals. The Sentencing Bill goes significantly further, accepting the majority of Gauke’s proposals. These include expanding options for suspended and deferred sentences and reforming recall, when people are returned to prison after breaching the terms of their release.  

There are numerous elements to the Sentencing Bill, not all of which are positive. But the central reforms that will reduce pressure on prison capacity include:

• A presumption to suspend all sentences of 12 months or less, meaning the offender serves their sentence in the community unless they commit a further offence or breach the terms of their sentence;
   
• Allowing courts to suspend sentences of up to three years (rather than two);
   
• Introducing ‘earned progression’ to prison sentences, allowing most offenders to be released after a third of their sentence unless they break prison rules. This will be followed by a more restrictive period of supervision post-release.

The proposed reforms will free up space in prisons while tackling reoffending  

Several of these measures should help reduce reoffending as well as easing pressure on prisons. There is strong evidence that sentences served in the community are more effective at preventing reoffending than short prison sentences.  ³⁶ Ministry of Justice, 2025, Reducing reoffending: A synthesis of evidence on the effectiveness of interventions, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/680101e3da5bb2fc4a681fcb/Final_PDF_Reducing_Reoffending_-_Evidence_Synthesis.pdf   ³⁷ https://www.gov.scot/publications/works-reduce-reoffending-update-evidence-imprisonment-community-disposals/pages/  Likewise, expanding the options for deferred sentencing could also support more effective rehabilitation.  ³⁸ https://justiceinnovation.org/sites/default/files/media/document/2021/Deferred%20sentencing.pdf  Changes to the test for remand, where defendants are held in custody awaiting trial or sentencing, are sensible and should avoid short sentences ‘by the backdoor’.

Earned progression also offers potential positives, if it can be used to encourage engagement in purposeful activity such as education and employment while in prison. This can reduce violence, improve outcomes and even save money over the long-term. However, tying release to purposeful activity like this is unlikely to be feasible given the current state of prisons. At the moment there is not enough activity provision to go round, and in the average prison in 2023/24, a third of prisoners were not taking part in any purposeful activity.  ³⁹ https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/education-training-prisons-money  Staff are overstretched in the face of system on the brink and would struggle to implement such a system fairly. Prisons are also facing further cuts to their education budgets, with some cutting provision by 25% or more.  ⁴⁰ https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/sep/14/prisons-in-england-and-wales-to-cut-spending-on-education-courses-by-up-to-50?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Ot…  

Longer-term, however, the prospects may be brighter. Gauke specifically suggested that the threshold for earned release should be raised as prisons return to a more normal way of operating once capacity pressure starts to ease. If this can be done successfully, it could really make a difference both to those in prison, and for their prospects on release.  

The government is likely to face considerable pressure to water down its proposals or exclude certain prisoners, such as those convicted of domestic abuse or sexual offences. But it should hold firm: these reforms are sensible and urgently needed.