‘Get Britain Working’ white paper: a bold plan, but will it work?

Starmer’s government has pledged to end the culture of "blaming and shaming" those on benefits, promising a new approach to tackling worklessness. ²¹ https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/get-britain-working-white-paper#:~:text=This%20White%20Paper%20sets%20out,participate%20and%20progress%20i….  Something clearly needs to change: nearly a quarter of the working-age population – almost 11 million people – are out of work. ²² Weaknesses in the UK’s official labour market statistics mean there is debate about whether and how far overall inactivity rates have risen in recent years. However, administrative data shows clearly that there has been a large rise in the number of people out of work and claiming incapacity-related benefits. See, for example, recent analysis from the Resolution Foundation, https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/get-britains-stats-working/.  Of this group, only a fraction (1.5 million) are actively looking for jobs. 

Some have opted to leave the labour market permanently, such as early retirees, and others temporarily, for example while in education or taking on caring responsibilities. But the big issue lies with roughly 2.8 million people who are off work due to long-term sickness, a number that has risen sharply since the pandemic. 

This is both a social and an economic issue. Addressing worklessness – especially among the long-term sick – is key to the government’s mission of ‘expanding opportunity’ across the country and stimulating economic growth.

The government is right to commit to a joined-up approach that supports people into work 

Helping those hardest to support – people with disabilities, mental health conditions or addictions – cannot be achieved by DWP alone. So the government is right to aim to tackle the root causes of worklessness through collaboration. A key proposal is £55m to merge the National Careers Service with jobcentres around the country to create a National Jobs and Careers Service in an effort to move away from simply managing benefits to providing tailored, comprehensive careers advice that genuinely supports the long-term unemployed into meaningful employment. 

Alongside this, £125m will fund NHS ‘accelerators’ in trailblazer regions, ²³ The inactivity trailblazers will be in: West Yorkshire, the North East, South Yorkshire, York and North Yorkshire, Greater Manchester, two in London and one in Wales.  integrating health and employment support to help sick or disabled people return to work. These regions will act as testbeds for innovative, local solutions. For young people aged 18 to 21, the ‘Youth Guarantee’ offers training, apprenticeships or job assistance – with sanctions if they don’t take this up. 

Eight trailblazer regions ²⁴ The youth trailblazers will be in: Liverpool City Region, West Midlands, Tees Valley, East Midlands, West of England, Cambridgeshire & Peterborough and two in London.  will pilot locally led efforts to address barriers facing young people not in education, employment and training. The government hopes that these initiatives could break cycles of welfare dependency or insecure jobs that scar young peoples’ prospects and wages in the long run. Trialling different models across the country is sensible, and should mitigate the pitfalls of a ‘one-size fits all’ approach. 

The government is also prioritising prevention. A review led by Sir Charlie Mayhew will explore how employers can foster healthy, inclusive workplaces to prevent health-related economic inactivity in the first place. And with construction in decline and a housebuilding target of 1.5 million homes this parliament – a commitment reiterated this week in Starmer’s Plan for Change – addressing skills-specific shortages by investing in the UK’s untapped domestic workforce is also prudent. This has the potential to reduce reliance on immigration, while aligning housing, labour market and economic growth priorities. 

But planned welfare cuts and reforms put all these initiatives at risk

Sustained, intensive and highly tailored support is required to support individuals furthest away from the labour market back into employment. This, though, will take time – which may be difficult to reconcile with short-term fiscal pressures, not least Rachel Reeves’ planned £3 billion in welfare cuts and reforms to incapacity and disability benefits expected next June.

The tension between delivering immediate savings and achieving the longer-term goal of helping people into secure work is clear. Disability rights groups are already warning that the imperative to reduce the benefits bill risks undermining a genuine reset in the relationship with sick or disabled individuals, pressuring them into accepting ‘any job over a good job’, with potential impacts on their health. ²⁹ https://www.disabilityrightsuk.org/news/get-britain-working%E2%80%9D-white-paper-published-today  Similar concerns have been raised about the youth guarantee schemes’ conditional approach. ³⁰ https://theconversation.com/the-uk-wants-to-guarantee-work-or-training-for-all-young-people-first-it-needs-good-jobs-244693   

Other departments’ policies could also squeeze the job market 

The DWP white paper might also come into conflict with other parts of Labour’s agenda. The workers’ rights agenda, the uplift in the national living wage and the budget’s £25bn increase in employer national insurance contributions (NICs) all combine to make hiring riskier and more expensive for businesses. According to the CBI, hiring intentions have hit their lowest point since the height of the pandemic, with many firms planning to cut back on recruitment. ³¹ Growth expectations among UK firms take ‘decisive turn for worse’, says CBI | Confederation of British Industry (CBI) | The Guardian  A snap survey by the London Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) of more than 200 business leaders revealed that nearly 80% of businesses expect higher employer NICs to have a negative impact, with almost half predicting hiring freezes and reduced pay for staff. ³² Growth expectations among UK firms take ‘decisive turn for worse’, says CBI | Confederation of British Industry (CBI) | The Guardian

All these policies, and the reported reaction to them, may mean there are simply fewer jobs for unemployed people to step into, putting the government’s ambitious target of an 80% employment rate –and its broader goal of economic growth – in serious jeopardy.

The government’s white paper to address worklessness is ambitious, but critical details won’t emerge now until June. The key question is whether Kendall, Reeves and other ministers can align their goals to genuinely reset how the government supports people back into work through ongoing, holistic support – or whether competing agendas will shift the focus elsewhere.