Eight ways Donald Trump might change British politics and policy
Many in British politics will take their cue from the US president – and Keir Starmer will need to respond.

With Donald Trump’s return to the White House just two weeks away, Jill Rutter looks at how the returning US president could shape British politics – and impact Keir Starmer’s agenda
Donald Trump is already casting a massive shadow over world politics and policy. His first term (until its unsavoury ending) was relatively tame by comparison with what he might do now – with a clearer understanding of the levers of power and a clearer idea of who he wants to appoint to critical offices. Last time he was hemmed in by dependence on more old-style Republicans. Now the sole test is loyalty.
Trump’s threats destabilised the government in Canada, increasing pressure on Justin Trudeau – who has now announced his resignation. He is forcing Ukraine to contemplate a negotiated settlement. It is uncertain what impact the New Year's Day attack in New Orleans could have on the Trump administration’s Middle East foreign policy. And Europe is looking on, nervously contemplating how much more it will need to spend on defence if the American shield looks shakier or more transactional. Those all have the potential to have big impacts on the international context in which decisions will be made.
Even if the immediate question facing the government is whether to respond to the latest X grenade lobbed at them by Elon Musk, there are other areas where the impact will be more profound. The Trump effect is already shaping decisions – such as the delayed appointment of the new UK ambassador. The choice of Lord Mandelson seems to be based on the assumption that he has the political skills and trade know-how to deal with a Trump administration and its trade agenda, and in the longer term an ability to work with the Trump administration may affect the future of the foreign secretary and the choice of his successors.
Meanwhile, the prospect of the Trump adjacent Elon Musk writing a giant cheque to Reform is already causing a domestic rethink on the UK’s approach to political donations from overseas.
Other impacts are yet to materialise – but the list is long and may well determine the ability of Keir Starmer’s government to achieve its goals:
1. Spending priorities
Donald Trump does not care about the NHS (other than as a business opportunity for the US), the two-child limit or the strains on UK prisons, but he is clear European allies must hike defence spending. The defence review commissioned shortly after Labour took office was always likely to recommend a significant increase – but the presence of Trump in the White House may create external pressure for a bigger and more rapid defence build-up, adding to what is already an increasing domestic imperative. That could subvert Rachel Reeves’s colleagues’ ambitions for the spending round and her ability to maintain her pledge on future tax hikes.
2. Trade policy
Trump loves tariffs. But at the moment he seems to have two competing visions of how to use them: first to build Fortress America, repatriate jobs and force foreign companies inside the US paywall; second to use them to blackmail other countries into making policy changes the US wants. The UK remains vulnerable on both counts as a very open economy, with the US as our biggest trade partner outside the EU. The better news is that goods and manufacturing may be more in the front line than our comparative advantage of services. But we are also vulnerable to the blowback if Trump trade policy causes a trade war, and some UK sectors may be very vulnerable if singled out for action.
3. EU reset
Keir Starmer’s happy place is to be able to stay on good terms with the US, get closer to China and agree a suite of changes to reduce trade frictions with Europe. But some members of the potential Trump team have already made clear that they would want to deny him the luxury of that choice. So every move Starmer makes on the EU (and on China) will need to be played back through the refracting lens of the possible implications for the relationship with the US.
4. Regulation
Trump (and his associates) may well decide to pick off countries with regulations that they think are detrimental to US business interests. That applies to a lot of the digital regulation that Musk so dislikes but may also apply to some of the restrictions on US agricultural imports into the UK – and potential future moves such as the carbon border adjustment mechanism. The UK may just be collateral damage in a regulation fight between the US and the EU. Or the US might decide that the UK – with a lot of inherited EU regulation, but less able or willing to retaliate – might be a good place to challenge. Particularly on tech and AI the US may seek to impose its regulatory hegemony.
Then there some areas where the UK will not be directly affected by US activity – but where it might shape future UK political debate, even though Trump remains pretty unpopular with most UK voters.
5. Immigration
Trump’s key immigration pledge is to deport undocumented migrants living in the US. That is simpler logistically for him than it would be for the UK. But the sight of Trump getting really tough on migrants – even if the numbers end up being hugely lower than the millions he has touted, could pour new fuel on demands for tougher action in the UK. However, it could cut the other way. Undocumented migrants are concentrated in certain sectors of the economy – two of the most vulnerable are agriculture and private residential construction. If the consequence of Trump deportations is a collapse in fruit picking (and consequent shortages/inflation) or a collapse of small housebuilders across the country, the policy might look less appealing to those who might seek to ape it.
6. Net zero and climate change
It is a dead cert that Trump pulls the US out – again – from the Paris Climate Change agreement, and he will encourage the US oil and gas industry. That said, there will remain a lot of momentum among US companies who still see competitive advantage in climate-friendlier technologies. But having an avowed climate sceptic in the White House will embolden net zero sceptics in the UK who already see the government’s energy transition as a costly imposition on UK businesses and consumers. Trump has already gone public on the impact of Labour’s attitude to North Sea oil and gas – but there are plenty of people over here who share his view on the chilling impact of Labour’s policy and Ed Miliband’s predecessor, Clare Coutinho is already linking the loss of royalty income to the sensitive issue of abolition of the winter fuel allowance.
7. Government efficiency
Small state conservatives will be watching carefully to see where the DOGE (the “department” of government efficiency headed up by Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy) axe falls. It could be that this simply becomes a byword for corruption with proliferating conflicts of interest – and some US commentators liken it to the oligarch carve-up of post-Soviet Russia rather than former VP Al Gore’s attempts at “reinventing government”. It may be that they simply do unthinkable things that do not translate into a UK context like winding up whole areas of federal activity (education) where the states are big actors or abolishing some regulators. Some moves may backfire domestically if they hamper the ability of the federal government to respond, say, to disasters. But it is also possible that in some areas they actually identify better ways of delivering government services, with much reduced headcount and cost, that might offer a blueprint for reformers here.
8. Politicisation of public service
The US already has many more layers of political appointees than the UK. But one of Trump’s promises/threats is to make much more of the US civil service open to hiring and firing on political grounds through reinstatement of the changes he made to Schedule F just before losing office. That might embolden those on the Right already frustrated with the “blob” or “deep state” to up their demands for much wider politicisation of the civil service.
While these all may be second order compared to the geopolitical and macroeconomic implications of the Trump second term, Keir Starmer’s government will need to be on its guard to ensure transatlantic ripples don’t become a tsunami which overwhelms its ability to pursue its agenda. But where the government’s opponents may take their cue from Trump, Starmer and his team will need to be ready to make the positive case for the choices they are making.
- Keywords
- Foreign affairs Immigration Climate change Trade Economy
- Country (international)
- United States
- Political party
- Labour
- Administration
- Starmer government
- Department
- Number 10
- Public figures
- Donald Trump Keir Starmer
- Publisher
- Institute for Government