How will Ed Davey's Liberal Democrats use the conference spotlight?

It is time for the Liberal Democrats to use their restored “political capital” and prepare once again for coalition government. That advice – from former party leader Sir Nick Clegg – may not be entirely welcomed by his successor, Sir Ed Davey.

As the Liberal Democrats arrive in Bournemouth for their annual conference, talk of preparing for government and coalition deals would appear somewhat premature. Since last summer’s general election, which saw the party return a record 72 MPs to Westminster, the Lib Dems have stalled on around 13% in most opinion polls – way behind Nigel Farage’s Reform.

On the other hand, Davey is the party leader most likely to record a positive rating when favourability polls are recorded. But this is a familiar conundrum for a third party in Westminster: perhaps not enough people are thinking about the Liberal Democrat leader to think negatively about him.

With some in his party looking enviously at the ease with which Nigel Farage’s Reform party makes headlines, and wanting substance from their leader rather than a repeat of the high-octane photoshoots which dominated the party’s general election campaign, Davey has been ratcheting up his criticisms of Donald Trump and finding himself accused of being a “craven coward” by Elon Musk.

No doubt these attacks – popular with the Lib Dem membership – will be repeated at the Liberal Democrat party conference in Bournemouth. In those crucial four days when the media spotlight falls on the party, Davey has a chance to shift the polling dial a point or two – but the Institute for Government has other good reasons to be paying close attention to Davey’s party.

After clawing its way back from the dizzying low of the eight MPs it won at the 2015 general election, the current Lib Dem tally of 72 makes it Westminster’s third largest party. While disadvantaged in comparison to the official opposition, the Lib Dems are well placed to wield influence in the era of five or maybe six party politics that is taking shape in British politics. Compared to the smaller opposition parties, the Lib Dems have far more MPs on select committees and bill committees, guaranteed questions in the Commons, and a significant presence in the House of Lords.

And while the Lib Dems have struggled to make inroads in metro mayoral elections, there are more than 3,000 Lib Dem councillors across England, among them 76 council leaders. This is a third party either in, or in a position to influence, power.

So what is the Lib Dem strategy for holding the Labour government to account? Where does the party stand on the government’s plans to restructure local government? How will its MPs scrutinise the government’s efforts to grow the economy? And what would Liberal Democrats do to turn around public service performance?

These are questions we will be exploring at a series of fringe events we are hosting in Bournemouth on Monday, exploring how devolution can deliver economic growth, what can be done to unlock trade investment in the UK, and how the UK can successfully pivot to a preventative-led approach to healthcare. A series of Lib Dem frontbenchers will be joining us, with our panels including Lib Dem local government spokesperson Baroness Pinnock, the party’s trade spokesperson Clive Jones MP, and Andrew George MP, a member of the health and social care select committee.  

And then there is that coalition question. The Institute for Government, which was established in 2008, witnessed the formation of that Conservative-Lib Dem coalition, and closely followed its attempts – both successes and failures – to govern. So what lessons does the man that took them into government have for his successors?

Nick Clegg will be in Bournemouth to promote his new book, and the former deputy prime minister will join me for an IfG fringe event on Sunday evening. I will be asking him what the Lib Dems need to do to restore their poll rating, how 72 MPs can wield influence in parliament, and why Nigel Farage’s Reform – with a parliamentary party not even a tenth the size of Davey’s – has been so successful in keeping the spotlight.

Clegg’s predictions of future coalitions and Davey’s stunts may make the headlines, but Sir Ed Davey’s party faces the more immediate challenging of governing effectively at a local level and opposing effectively in Westminster. The IfG will be watching closely.