Performance Tracker 2022/23: Spring update - Police

Police work has broadly returned to pre-pandemic patterns, with less focus on non-crime activity such as antisocial behaviour, though this still takes up more police time than a decade ago. Total crime is at historically low levels but the picture over the past year is less clear due to recent methodology changes within police forces.

Forces have come under heavy criticism after several scandals, most recently over the convicted sex offender and former police officer David Carrick, which have exposed severe flaws in forces’ vetting and misconduct procedures. These have contributed to falling public confidence in the police in recent years. 

Forces must continue integrating large numbers of newly recruited officers, the result of the Johnson government’s 2019 recruitment drive to add 20,000 officers by March 2023, while managing shortfalls that remain in some localities and key areas such as fraud and investigations. The increase in officer numbers has not yet boosted the proportion of recorded crimes being charged, however, which is at its lowest ever level. 

This chapter covers the 43 police forces in England and Wales, as the Home Office is responsible for policing in both nations. 

Police spending has risen in recent years but is still lower than in 2009/10

Most of the funding for policing in England and Wales comes from central government grants, with around a third coming from local taxation through a council tax levy known as the ‘police precept’. In 2021/22, £15.75 billion was spent on policing in England and Wales; this was 1.8% more in real terms than in 2020/21. ¹¹⁰ Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities, ‘Local authority revenue expenditure and financing England: 2021 to 2022 individual local authority data – outturn’, 8 December 2022, retrieved 16 December 2022, RO6, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/local-authority-revenue-expenditure-and-financing-england-2021-to-2022-individual-local-authority-data-outturn ; StatsWales, ‘Revenue outturn expenditure summary by service 2021–22’, October 2022, retrieved 16 December 2022, https://statswales.gov.wales/Catalogue/Local-Government/Finance/Revenue/Outturn/revenueoutturnexpendituresummary-by-service  

A large part of this increase came from the government drive to recruit more officers, which increased spending by £700 million in 2020/21, ¹¹¹ Home Office, ‘Police to receive more than £15 billion to fight crime and recruit more officers’, 17 December 2020, www.gov.uk/government/news/police-to-receive-more-than-15-billion-to-fight-crime-and-recruit-more-officers with a further £400m allocated for 2021/22. ¹¹² Home Office, ‘Fact sheet: Provisional Police Funding Settlement 2021/22’, Home Office in the media blog, 17 December 2020, https://homeofficemedia.blog.gov.uk/2020/12/17/provisional-police-funding-settlement-2021-22 The government also set aside an additional £58m to support Covid-related costs including overtime, bringing the total additional funding available to the police for Covid to £200m since the start of the pandemic. ¹¹³ Home Office, ‘Police to receive £60 million to support COVID-19 response’, 12 February 2021, www.gov.uk/government/news/police-to-receive-60-million-to-support-covid-19-response  

Policing responsibilities have returned to pre-pandemic patterns

The nature of police work changed during the height of the pandemic, especially during lockdowns. First, there was a dramatic fall in traditional ‘volume crimes’ such as theft and burglary. Second, police increasingly focused on non-crime activities such as antisocial behaviour and mental health-related incidents, acting as ‘the service of last resort’ as other front-line services withdrew. ¹¹⁴ The Police Foundation, Policing the Pandemic, 10 January 2022, p. 71, www.police-foundation.org.uk/publication/policing-the-pandemic  

However, neither of these trends was new. For example, while there was a 13.4% fall in recorded incidents of burglary between 2013/14 and 2019/20, there was a 65% increase in the number of missing persons incidents recorded by the police over the same period. ¹¹⁵ The Police Foundation, A New Mode of Protection: Redesigning policing and public safety for the 21st century, March 2022, p. 36, www.policingreview.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/srpew_final_report.pdf But both were accelerated in the first year of the pandemic. 

More recently, there is evidence that demands on the police have returned to pre-pandemic levels. Her Majesty’s Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire and Rescue Services (HMICFRS) noted in May 2022 that while “demand on policing… continues to shift and change, inspectors generally find that practice is back to normal”. ¹¹⁶ Criminal Justice Joint Inspection, The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the criminal justice system – a progress report, May 2022, p. 12, www.justiceinspectorates.gov.uk/cjji/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/05/CJ-Covid-19-recovery-progress-report-web-2022.pdf

Total crime is at historically low levels but the picture over the past year is unclear

There are two ways of measuring crime: how many crimes the police record (police-recorded crime) and how many crimes a representative sample of the population report in the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW; victim-reported crime). Fraud data, which was only recently incorporated into the CSEW, is discussed separately below. 

The CSEW is a household-based victimisation survey that includes crimes that are not reported to the police and as such is a better indicator of longer-term trends for the crimes it covers. ¹²⁶ Office for National Statistics, ‘User guide to crime statistics for England and Wales: March 2020’, 4 November 2021, retrieved 30 August 2022, www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/methodologies/userguidetocrimestatisticsforenglandandwales#crime-survey-for-england-and-w… Because of a methodology change the data for 2020/21 and 2021/22 is, however, not directly comparable to pre-pandemic figures. The police-recorded crime figures cover a broader range of crimes, in addition to victim-based crimes, but are heavily influenced by changes in police crime recording practices. ¹²⁷ Office for National Statistics, ‘User guide to crime statistics for England and Wales: March 2020’, 4 November 2021, retrieved 30 August 2022, www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/methodologies/userguidetocrimestatisticsforenglandandwales#crime-survey-for-england-and-w…

The CSEW shows a sustained long-term decline in crime over the past decade and in the last year. In 2021/22, there were 5,107,000 crimes (excluding fraud), an almost 10% fall on the year before. ¹²⁸ Office for National Statistics, ‘Crime in England and Wales, Appendix Tables, year ending March 2022’, retrieved 30 August 2022, www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/datasets/crimeinenglandandwalesappendixtables This was driven by a 12% decline in theft offences over the period. Recent data covering the year to September 2022 shows a 22% decline in these crime types compared to the last comparable pre-pandemic year. ¹²⁹ Office for National Statistics, ‘Crime in England and Wales, Appendix Tables, year ending September 2022’, retrieved 30 August 2022, www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/datasets/crimeinenglandandwalesappendixtables  

In contrast, after declining during the first year of the pandemic, police-recorded crime (again excluding fraud) rose in 2021/22, with 5,335,806 crimes, 7% more than in 2019/20. ¹³⁰ Office for National Statistics, ‘Crime in England and Wales: Police Force Area data tables, year ending March 2022’, retrieved 30 August 2022, www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/datasets/policeforceareadatatables We cannot say for certain which data source better reflects crime trends over the past year but it is likely that overall crime (excluding fraud) has fallen and that the rise in police-recorded crime is largely due to improvements to police recording practices, particularly of crimes reported by professional third parties such as social services. ¹³¹ Office for National Statistics, ‘User guide to crime statistics for England and Wales: March 2020’, 4 November 2021, retrieved 30 August 2022, section 4.2, www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/methodologies/userguidetocrimestatisticsforenglandandwales

Incidents of fraud remain high but fell slightly in 2021/22

Digital technology has transformed the nature of crime. Many crimes have shifted online and are carried out by criminals overseas that are difficult for police forces to reach. ¹³² The Police Foundation, A New Mode of Protection: Redesigning policing and public safety for the 21st century, March 2022, ch. 2, www.policingreview.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/srpew_final_report.pdf

The CSEW started reporting on fraud during 2015/16 and since then levels of fraud and online crimes remain high. ¹³³ Atkins G, Kavanagh A, Shepheard M, Pope T and Tetlow G, Performance Tracker 2021, Institute for Government, 19 October 2021, p. 106, www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/performance-tracker-2021 The survey identified approximately 4.5 million victim-reported fraud crimes in 2021/22, though this was 100,000 fewer than 2020/21. ¹³⁴ Office for National Statistics, ‘Crime in England and Wales, Appendix Tables, year ending March 2022’, retrieved 30 August 2022, www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/datasets/crimeinenglandandwalesappendixtables

Despite the high levels of fraud and other online crimes, the Police Foundation has criticised the scale of police response, noting from the estimated 4.6 million fraud cases in 2020/21 there were only 4,853 charges or summons over the same period. ¹³⁷ The Police Foundation, A New Mode of Protection: Redesigning policing and public safety for the 21st century, March 2022, ch. 2, www.policingreview.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/srpew_final_report.pdf They also highlighted the digital skills gap in many police forces including areas such as digital forensics and data analysts. ¹³⁸ The Police Foundation, A New Mode of Protection: Redesigning policing and public safety for the 21st century, March 2022, pp.105–6, www.policingreview.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/srpew_final_report.pdf

Charge rates have fallen further

Excluding fraud, the proportion of recorded crimes that result in charges rose slightly in 2020/21 but fell to a new low of 6% in 2021/22, continuing the decline since 2014/15. ¹⁴⁷ Home Office, ‘Crime outcomes in England and Wales 2020 to 2021’, 22 July 2021, retrieved 30 August 2022, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/crime-outcomes-in-england-and-wales-2020-to-2021 This trend has partly been driven by the increase in volume of crimes recorded (as above), but also the continued fall in the absolute number of charges. These have continually fallen since 2014/15 and fell 12.7% between 2020/21 and 2021/22 (from 417,751 to 364,799). ¹⁴⁸ Home Office, ‘Crime outcomes in England and Wales 2021 to 2022’, 21 July 2022, Table A.3, retrieved 30 August 2022, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/crime-outcomes-in-england-and-wales-2021-to-2022 In a highly critical report, HMICFRS attributed low charge rates for burglary, robbery and theft to prioritisation, a lack of capacity, poor digital forensic capability and insufficient supervision. ¹⁴⁹ HM Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire and Rescue Services, The police response to burglary, robbery and other acquisitive crime – Finding time for crime, 11 August 2022, www.justiceinspectorates.gov.uk/hmicfrs/publication-html/police-response-to-burglary-robbery-and-other-acquisitive-crime

Charging rates have fallen particularly sharply for some types of crime. For example, between 2014/15 and 2021/22 the charge rate for sexual offences, including rape, fell from 11.3% to just 2.9%. ¹⁵⁰ Home Office, ‘Crime outcomes in England and Wales 2020 to 2021’, 22 July 2021, retrieved 30 August 2022, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/crime-outcomes-in-england-and-wales-2020-to-2021 The government’s end-to-end review of rape in England and Wales described this as “totally unacceptable”, and attributed it to complex factors such as increasing levels of digital data requested from victims, a national shortage of detectives and delays in investigative processes. ¹⁵¹ Ministry of Justice, The end-to-end rape review report on findings and actions, correction slip, June 2021, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001417/end-to-end-rape-review-report-with-correction… It also called for significantly greater levels of support to victims. ¹⁵² Ministry of Justice, The end-to-end rape review report on findings and actions, correction slip, June 2021, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001417/end-to-end-rape-review-report-with-correction…

Charging rates for sexual offences increased marginally in the first six months of 2022/23. This may be due to increased attention to sexual offences and efforts (e.g. Operation Soteria ¹⁵³ Home Office, Operation Soteria Year One Report, 15 December 2022, www.gov.uk/government/publications/operation-soteria-year-one-report ) to increase police effectiveness on this crime type. However, we will not know this increase will be sustained until more data is released.

The number of officers has increased but the government is not on track for its recruitment target 

As of September 2022, there were 142,145 full-time officers, 1.1% fewer than March 2010. ¹⁵⁴ Home Office, ‘Police workforce, England and Wales: 30 September 2022’, 25 January 2023, retrieved 25 January 2023, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/police-workforce-england-and-wales-30-september-2022/police-workforce-england-and-wales-30-september-2022 This is still a sharp increase from the mid-to-late 2010s, after which point the government committed in 2019 to a net increase of 20,000 officers by 2023.

By December 2022 the ‘police uplift programme’ launched in July 2019 had recruited 16,753 new officers. ¹⁵⁷ Home Office, ‘Police officer uplift, quarterly update to December 2022’, 25 January 2023, retrieved 25 January 2023, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/police-officer-uplift-quarterly-update-to-september-2022/police-officer-uplift-england-and-wales-quarterly-update-to… The National Audit Office reports that £3.6bn will be spent on the programme by March 2023, covering recruitment, training, equipment, and the programme team. ¹⁵⁸ Comptroller and Auditor General, The Police Uplift Programme, Session 2021–22, HC 1147, National Audit Office, 2022, www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/The-Police-uplift-programme.pdf

The programme started to fall below its target in May 2022. Recent data shows that to recruit the additional 20,000 officers by the end of 2022/23, the government will need to increase officer headcount by over 1,000 per month between January and March 2023. This is something the programme has rarely achieved, and there is a serious risk that the government will miss its target. A Public Accounts Committee report noted the more difficult labour market conditions facing the programme, with many vacancies across the economy and some recruits deterred by declining confidence in policing. ¹⁷⁶ House of Commons Committee of Public Accounts, The Police Uplift Programme, Fifteenth report of session 2022–23, HC 261, p. 14, https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/23202/documents/169519/default An increase in officers leaving forces (discussed below) will make this situation yet more difficult. 

Constabularies still lack key skills and a representative workforce 

A National Audit Office review found that the need to maintain officer numbers may undermine workforce modernisation, as it gives chief constables less flexibility in how they use their resources, limiting, for example, their ability to deploy civilian staff who may have specialist skills. ¹⁷⁷ Comptroller and Auditor General, The Police Uplift Programme, Session 2021–22, HC 1147, National Audit Office, 2022, www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/The-Police-uplift-programme.pdf This may exacerbate shortfalls in specialist policing areas such as intelligence and investigations. ¹⁷⁸ Home Office, ‘Police workforce England and Wales: 31 March 2021 second edition’, 30 March 2022, retrieved 30 August 2022, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/police-workforce-england-and-wales-31-march-2021 The Police Foundation identified a shortfall of 6,851 accredited investigation detectives in 2021 with only 76% of accredited posts filled (though when trainees are factored in, this rises to 93%). ¹⁷⁹ National Police Chiefs Council, Eighth Submission to the Police Remuneration Review Body, February 2022, www.npcc.police.uk/SysSiteAssets/media/downloads/publications/publications-log/2022/npccs-prrb-2022-submission.pdf In the short term this affects workloads and timeliness, and leads to de-prioritisation of some crime types such as burglary, assault and theft. ¹⁸⁰ The Police Foundation, A New Mode of Protection: Redesigning policing and public safety for the 21st century, March 2022, pp. 104–5, www.policingreview.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/srpew_final_report.pdf According to a recent HMICFRS report, many forces do not have appropriate numbers of staff trained with the forensic skills necessary to handle the increasing prevalence of digital evidence in criminal investigations. ¹⁸¹ HM Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire and Rescue Services, Digital forensics: An inspection into how well the police and other agencies use digital forensics in their investigations, 1 December 2022, www.justiceinspectorates.gov.uk/hmicfrs/wp-content/uploads/inspection-police-other-agencies-digital-forensics-investigations.pdf

Increasing police numbers has not adequately addressed the under-representation of minority ethnic groups in the police force noted by the Home Affairs Committee in 2021. ¹⁸² House of Commons Home Affairs Committee, The Macpherson Report: Twenty-two years on, Third Report of Session 2021–22, HC 139, https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5802/cmselect/cmhaff/139/13907.htm The programme has not included targets for ethnic minority recruitment, while efforts to promote workforce diversity are made difficult by the pace of the recruitment drive. ¹⁸³ Comptroller and Auditor General, The Police Uplift Programme, Session 2021–22, HC 1147, National Audit Office, 2022, www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/The-Police-uplift-programme.pdf By the end of December 2022, just 1.6% of all new officers recruited since April 2020 were Black ¹⁸⁴ Home Office, ‘Police officer uplift, England and Wales, quarterly update to December 2022’, 25 January 2023, retrieved 25 January 2023, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/police-officer-uplift-quarterly-update-to-december-2022/police-officer-uplift-england-and-wales-quarterly-update-to-… – approximately half the size of the Black population in England and Wales. ¹⁸⁵ Office for National Statistics, ‘Population estimates by ethnic group and religion, England and Wales: 2019’, 16 December 2022, www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/populationestimatesbyethnicgroupandreligionenglandand… It also does not suggest police forces have been particularly successful in attempts to bring this rate up as the existing proportion of Black officers nationally stands at 1.3%, unchanged from September. ¹⁸⁶ Home Office, ‘Police officer uplift England and Wales quarterly update to September 2022’, 26 October 2022, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/police-officer-uplift-quarterly-update-to-september-2022/police-officer-uplift-england-and-wales-quarterly-update-to…

Police retention worsened in 2021/22 amid high levels of dissatisfaction with pay

Throughout the pandemic, the police faced difficult working conditions that may have impacted wellbeing. The Police Foundation has highlighted harder work with longer shifts and unique challenges – such as members of the public threatening to infect officers with Covid – as factors adding to police stress. ¹⁸⁷ The Police Foundation, A New Mode of Protection: Redesigning policing and public safety for the 21st century, March 2022, ch. 9, www.policingreview.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/srpew_final_report.pdf Despite this, police turnover stabilised during 2020/21. ¹⁸⁸ National Police Chiefs Council, Eighth Submission to the Police Remuneration Review Body, February 2022, www.npcc.police.uk/SysSiteAssets/media/downloads/publications/publications-log/2022/npccs-prrb-2022-submission.pdf However, this trend reversed in 2021/22 with a 35% increase in officers leaving the force. The total number of officers leaving was higher than in 2019/20, though below the high of 2018/19. ¹⁸⁹ Home Office, ‘Police workforce England and Wales: 31 March 2022’, 27 July 2022, retrieved August 2022, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/police-workforce-england-and-wales-31-march-2022/police-workforce-england-and-wales-31-march-2022  

In the medium term, there may be further retention problems. Some 86% of respondents to the Police Federation’s December 2022 pay and morale survey reported high levels of pay dissatisfaction, up from 69% in 2020. ¹⁹⁰ Police Federation of England and Wales, Pay and Morale Survey 2022 – Headline Report, December 2022, www.polfed.org/media/18245/pay-and-morale-2022_headline-report.pdf Over the same period, the proportion of respondents believing they are not fairly paid considering the stress of policing has risen from 86% to 94%. ¹⁹¹ Police Federation of England and Wales, Pay and Morale Survey 2022 – Headline Report, December 2022, www.polfed.org/media/18245/pay-and-morale-2022_headline-report.pdf Police forces have little financial headroom as the police uplift programme is only financed by central government for the first three years, after which costs fall to forces. ¹⁹² Comptroller and Auditor General, The Police Uplift Programme, Session 2021–22, HC 1147, National Audit Office, 2022, p. 22, www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/The-Police-uplift-programme.pdf

There is declining public confidence in policing

A range of survey evidence suggests that public confidence in and satisfaction with the police has fallen over recent years. 

Most respondents to the CSEW report their local police are doing a good or excellent job. However, the number doing so declined from 63% in 2015/16 to 56% in 2019/20. A change to telephone-based interviews make recent years non-comparable, but they too show a decline between 2020/21 and 2021/22.

Similarly, data from YouGov asking about policing in general indicates a marked loss of confidence. Averaging figures over a 12-month period in a survey carried out between March 2022 and February 2023, 50% of respondents said they either had not very much or no confidence at all in the police to deal with crime, compared to 45% a year earlier. ¹⁹⁹ Institute for Government analysis of data from YouGov, ‘How much confidence Brits have in police to deal with crime’, retrieved 15 December 2022, https://yougov.co.uk/topics/legal/trackers/how-much-confidence-brits-have-in-police-to-deal-with-crime Similarly, in a different survey, averaged figures over the same period show 52% of respondents felt the police were doing a good job compared to 60% a year earlier. ²⁰⁰ YouGov, ‘Are the police doing a good job?’, retrieved 15 December 2022, https://yougov.co.uk/topics/legal/trackers/are-the-police-doing-a-good-job  

This deterioration in attitudes to policing is likely to be linked to several high-profile policing scandals. The case of David Carrick, recently found guilty of 49 offences (including rape) committed over a long career as an officer in the Metropolitan Police, has reopened questions over forces’ ability to identify and appropriately vet poor officers (including those who have historically come to police attention). This comes after HMICFRS placed the Metropolitan Police under special measures in July 2022 after “substantial and persistent” concerns arose over the poor handling of the Stephen Port case, the murder of Sarah Everard, the strip search of three children including Child Q, and unprofessional behaviour at Charing Cross Police Station. ²⁰¹ BBC News, ‘Met Police: Inspectorate has ‘substantial and persistent’ concerns’, 29 June 2022, www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-61977535 Reports that the Metropolitan Police is investigating domestic and sexual abuse claims implicating a further 800 officers are likely to worsen public confidence. ²⁰² BBC News, ‘Met chief says 800 officers investigated over sexual and domestic abuse claims’, 16 January 2023, www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-64293158  

Trust among minority groups is even lower. A YouGov poll in October 2021 identified that only 44% of minority ethnic Britons trust the police, down from 52% in October 2020. ²⁰³ Abraham T, ‘Trust in the police has fallen amongst ethnic minority Britons’, YouGov, 15 December 2021, https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/12/15/trust-police-has-fallen-amongst-ethnic-minority-br This finding matters given continued disproportionate use of stop and search powers which, HMICFRS notes, causes suspicion among communities that they are being unfairly targeted. ²⁰⁴ HM Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire and Rescue Services, Disproportionate use of police powers – A spotlight on stop and search and the use of force, 26 February 2021, www.justiceinspectorates.gov.uk/hmicfrs/publications/disproportionate-use-of-police-powers-a-spotlight-on-stop-and-search-and-the-use-of-force HMICFRS identified using 2019/20 data that Black people were about 5.7 times more likely to have force used on them than their white counterparts.