Boris Johnson needs answers for the challenges he faces in each part of the UK

Boris Johnson’s trip to Scotland is being written up as the launch of No.10's campaign to save the Union, highlighting how the events of 2020 have intensified a major challenge for the UK government in 2021.

Responding to the Covid crisis and securing a Brexit deal dominated the government’s energy and attention over the last year – and the knock-on effects of both are being felt across the nations of the UK. The Northern Ireland protocol came into force on 31 December, followed shortly by claims from unionist politicians that it was an “unmitigated disaster” – the first year of its existence will be a major test. Arguments between the UK government and devolved administrations over how to replace EU programmes and frameworks rage on, with further disputes inevitable. The Scottish and Welsh parliamentary elections (even if delayed) will bring constitutional politics to the fore, as the SNP seek to capitalise on the boost in support for independence created by Brexit and the Covid response.

To hold the Union together, the UK government must address the challenges in each constituent part as well as make a stronger positive case for the Union. When he became prime minister, Boris Johnson appointed himself minister for the Union. However, the threats to its integrity seem only to have become more real. To hold the Union together, the UK government must address the challenges in each constituent part as well as make a stronger positive case for the Union.

Make the protocol work for Northern Ireland

Problems with the protocol have already become apparent; supermarkets have temporarily withdrawn certain products from shelves in Northern Ireland, and there were widespread reports of couriers stopping deliveries to Northern Ireland. Much of this can be put down to the fact that many businesses were unsure how to comply with their new obligations, with decisions and guidance only coming late in the day – some only 12 hours before these changes came into effect.

But there are more changes to come; in December, the UK and EU agreed a three-month exemption for supermarkets from paperwork for agri-food, but this is due to end in April. Agri-food checks are the most extensive, with physical inspections required on up to 30% of certain meat, dairy and poultry products, and the infrastructure to conduct these is still not ready. The UK government needs to use this time wisely to prepare businesses, help the Northern Ireland executive get ready, and seek further easements with the EU – otherwise more disruption may be on the cards.

But it is not all bad news. Post-Brexit opportunities exist for Northern Ireland businesses to take advantage of their unique access to both the GB and EU markets; the UK government must help maximise these. Many unionists have felt betrayed, and businesses frustrated by the UK government’s approach to Northern Ireland throughout the Brexit process. Talk of a border poll may be premature, and the constitutional implications of the protocol are still unclear, but Brexit has brought Northern Ireland’s place in the Union into sharp focus.

Work more collaboratively with the Welsh government

In Wales, the debate of how to replace EU structures and programmes goes on. Last year ended on a bad note as the UK parliament passed the UK Internal Market Act – which it argued was necessary to prevent the emergence of new trade barriers after the end of the transition period – despite strong objections from the Scottish and Welsh governments.

While the Scottish government said from the beginning that consent was "impossible" ^[1], the Welsh government was never opposed to the principle of legislation – but had concerns about its content. There was a compromise to be reached, but the UK government wasn’t willing to make the necessary concessions. The row has not helped relations between the devolved government and Westminster and has called into question the UK government’s claims to be committed to devolution. The House of Lords Constitution Committee warned that passing the bill risked “de-stabilising this integral part of the UK’s constitutional arrangements”. ^[2]

The prime minister’s comments that devolution was a ‘disaster’ added fuel to the fire. Independence may still be a remote prospect for Wales, with polling in May showing only 12% would say it was their constitutional preference when presented with a range of options, 10% fewer than the 22% who wanted no devolved government at all. ^[3] But for the majority of people in Wales, devolution is popular, and by failing to respect it the UK government risks pushing people away.

In 2021, the UK government is planning to roll out a new UK Shared Prosperity Fund to replace EU funding for economic growth – of which Wales was a major recipient. But unlike the EU scheme, which was distributed by the Welsh government, decisions on how the money is spent (even in devolved areas) are expected to be made in Westminster. This is a key part of the UK government ‘levelling up’ agenda; with significant sums of money no longer under Welsh control, it will feel like a blow to devolution. A lack of co-ordination between the two governments on spending in devolved areas is also likely to limit the effectiveness of funding. The UK government should work with, not against, the Welsh government in ensuring the money is spent in a way that best benefits the people of Wales.

Build a stronger case for the Union in Scotland

The most immediate threat to the Union comes from Scotland; Brexit and Covid have driven support for independence with polls showing a consistent lead for ‘yes’. ^[4] If the SNP wins the Scottish Parliament elections, as expected, it has said it will introduce legislation to hold a second independence referendum. The UK government will need a better response than a flat no, or risk accusations that it is blocking the will of the Scottish people.  

Rejecting the call for independence must come with a demonstration of the value of being part of a wider Union, but the UK government’s current strategy is centred around spending more money in the devolved nations. This alone is unlikely to be enough to tempt people away from the idea of independence.

Instead the UK government needs a coherent narrative of why Scotland needs the Union and the Union needs Scotland – as IfG work will discuss in more detail. The UK government needs to demonstrate that in areas where the four governments have common interests – like in trade deals, environmental goals and defence – more can be achieved by working together than separately. It must show that by pooling resources, there are more opportunities for redistribution, ensuring the best outcomes across the UK. Finally, it must recognise where there are different local needs and preferences; by allowing each government to respond accordingly, devolution is an asset not a threat.