Welsh independence

To what extent is Welsh independence on the agenda?

The issue of Welsh independence has gained greater prominence in recent years, following Plaid Cymru’s shift to a more openly pro-independence position and as the party has risen in the polls, as well as due to the backdrop of continued debate about independence for Scotland.  

At the 2021 election, Plaid Cymru committed to holding a referendum on Welsh independence by 2026 if the party won a majority of Senedd seats. ²² Plaid Cymru, ‘Vote for Wales: Senedd election manifesto 2021’, https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/plaid2016/pages/10962/attachments/original/1618308502/Plaid_Cymru_Manifesto_2021_ENGLISH.pdf?1618308502.  In the event, however, the nationalist party gained only one seat on their 2016 total, and fell behind the Conservatives to become the third party in the Senedd.  

In the run up to the 2026 Senedd election, polls suggest Plaid Cymru may become the largest party in the Senedd for the first time ever, almost certainly leading to the formation of a Plaid-led government. Rhun ap Iorwerth, Plaid Cymru’s leader since 2023, has stated that the party will prepare a green paper on the path to independence and create a national commission to speak to the public about Wales’ future. However, the party does not plan to seek independence in the first term of a Plaid-led government.  

Nonetheless, independence remains under consideration as a potential future constitutional option for Wales.

In January 2024, the cross-party Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales published its final report. Alongside options to protect and strengthen devolution within the union, the commission found that independence was a ”viable option for the future”. ²³ Welsh Government, ‘Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales: interim report’, https://www.gov.wales/independent-commission-on-the-constitutional-future-of-wales-interim-report.

Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth welcomed the report, saying that it was “a turning point in our nation’s constitutional journey”. ²⁴ Institute of Welsh Affairs, ‘Rhun ap Iorwerth: Constitutional change is a case of ‘when’, not ‘if”’, 27 March 2024, https://www.iwa.wales/agenda/2024/03/when-not-if-wales-independence-constitutional-commission-rhun-ap-iowerth/  

Does the Welsh public support independence?

Opinion polls consistently indicate that a majority of Welsh people oppose independence. Nevertheless, support for Welsh independence has increased since from an average of 16% in 2014-2018, reaching 30% or above in polls in 2021, 2023, 2024 and 2025.  

More Welsh voters are undecided on the issue of independence compared to Scotland. Around 20% of Welsh voters say that they are undecided or would not vote in an independence referendum, compared to around 10% in Scotland.  

Support for independence varies between different demographics and party alignment. Polls suggest younger voters and fluent Welsh speakers are more likely to support independence. Support for independence is unsurprisingly highest amongst Plaid Cymru voters and lowest amongst Conservative voters, and varies by region, with the highest support in mid and west Wales and the lowest in north Wales. 

What is the position of the Welsh parties on independence or other constitutional change?

Plaid Cymru are the only pro-independence party in the Senedd. Its constitution lists “securing independence for Wales in Europe” as one of the party’s primary aims. It also supports immediate further devolution to the Senedd, including over rail, welfare, justice and broadcasting.

All other parties represented in the Senedd oppose Welsh independence but hold varied views on further devolution to Wales.

Welsh Labour is supportive of further devolution. In a speech at the Institute for Government in January 2026, the Welsh Labour first minister, Eluned Morgan, stated that “Labour is the party of devolution” and reiterated Welsh Labour’s calls for devolution of policing, rail, youth justice and probation alongside reforming funding and legal protections for devolution. However, she made clear that “advancing the cause of devolution is motivated by better delivery for the people of Wales not by any ideological move towards an independent Wales”.  

The Welsh Liberal Democrats also support further devolution within a federal United Kingdom. Their 2021 manifesto called for enhanced fiscal devolution, including devolving borrowing powers and “greater freedom and autonomy in allocating spending”. ³¹ Welsh Liberal Democrats, ‘Put recovery first: 2021 manifesto’, https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/ldwales/pages/4049/attachments/original/1618503084/Welsh_Liberal_Democrat_2021_Manifesto.pdf?1618503084.

The Welsh Conservatives oppose further devolution. Andrew RT Davies, the party’s former Senedd leader, said that “rather than seeking more powers, more politicians or raising your taxes, we will use the powers Wales already has to level-up across the country and deliver improvements for everyone”. ³² Welsh Conservatives, ‘A plan for recovery and change: the Welsh Conservative Party manifesto 2021’, https://www.conservatives.wales/sites/www.conservatives.wales/files/2021-04/2021%20Senedd%20Manifesto_Wales%20ENGLISH.pdf.

Reform UK oppose Welsh independence. The party’s 2021 Senedd manifesto stated that while “devolution is not working at the moment” they would not support “cancelling devolution”. ³³ Reform UK, ‘Senedd 2021: Contract with the people of Wales’, 2021, accessed 26 January 2026, https://manifesto.deryn.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Reform-UK-Wales-Senedd-2021-Contract-with-the-People-of-Wales-2.pdf  However in September 2025, a party spokesperson said that while abolishing the Senedd would not appear in a manifesto, the party “do not want to shut the discussion down”. ³⁴ Deans D and Lewis G,’Is abolition of the Senedd Reform party policy or not?’, BBC News, 6 September 2025, accessed 26 January 2026, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx27mrxnzr2o

The Wales Green Party campaigns for an independent Wales and argue in favour of national self-determination more broadly. ³⁵ Plaid Werdd, ‘For a fairer greener country: Manifesto 2024’, June 2024, retrieved 26 January 2026, https://wales.greenparty.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/51/2024/06/DigitalVersionWalesGreenParty-Manifesto-2024-English.pdf  They currently have no Members of the Senedd, but recent polling suggests they may win several seats in the 2026 Senedd election.

Could the Senedd hold a referendum on independence?

The question of whether the Senedd could hold an independence referendum has never been tested, since a majority for this policy has never existed.

However, precedent from the Scottish independence debate suggests that the Senedd could not hold a referendum on independence unless it were empowered to do so by the UK parliament.

The Wales Act 2017 lists “the union of the nations of Wales and England” and “the Parliament of the United Kingdom” as ‘reserved’ matters that the Senedd cannot legislate on.

In November 2022, the Supreme Court unanimously ruled that similar language in the Scotland Act prevented the Scottish Parliament legislating for a referendum without Westminster consent, saying “it is plain that a bill which makes provision for a referendum on independence – on ending the union – has more than a loose or consequential connection with the union”. ³⁶ UK Supreme Court, ‘Reference by the Lord Advocate of devolution issues under paragraph 34 of Schedule 6 to the Scotland Act 1998: Judgement’, https://www.supremecourt.uk/cases/uksc-2022-0098.html.

Any Welsh independence referendum would therefore almost certainly require the passage of authorising legislation at Westminster, as occurred in advance of the Scottish independence referendum in 2014 when the power to organise such a vote was temporarily devolved.