Welsh independence

To what extent is Welsh independence on the agenda?

The issue of Welsh independence has gained greater prominence in recent years, due to increasing support for pro-independence party Plaid Cymru, and the backdrop of continued debate about independence for Scotland.  

At the 2021 Senedd election, Plaid Cymru committed to holding a referendum on Welsh independence by 2026 if the party won a majority of Senedd seats. ²² Plaid Cymru, ‘Vote for Wales: Senedd election manifesto 2021’, https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/plaid2016/pages/10962/attachments/original/1618308502/Plaid_Cymru_Manifesto_2021_ENGLISH.pdf?1618308502.  In the event, however, the nationalist party gained won only 13 seats and fell behind the Conservatives to become the third-largest party in the Senedd.  

In January 2024, the cross-party Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales published its final report, which alongside options to protect and strengthen devolution within the union, found that independence was a ”viable option for the future”. ²³ Welsh Government, ‘Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales: interim report’, https://www.gov.wales/independent-commission-on-the-constitutional-future-of-wales-interim-report.

In the 2026 Senedd election, Plaid Cymru became the largest party in the Senedd for the first time, with leader Rhun ap Iorwerth elected first minister. While the party remains pro-independence, it does not plan to pursue independence in the first term of a Plaid-led government. Instead, in its 2026 manifesto, the party committed to “laying the foundations for a future White Paper on Welsh independence” and it plans to engage citizens in a national conversation about Wales’s constitutional future. ²⁴ Plaid Cymru, ‘For Wales: 2026 manifesto’, April 2026, https://www.partyof.wales/manifesto   

Does the Welsh public support independence?

Opinion polls consistently indicate that a majority of Welsh people oppose independence. Nevertheless, when 'don't know' and 'wouldn't vote' responses are excluded, support for Welsh independence has increased from an average of 24% in late 2019 to around 34% in early 2026.

More Welsh voters are undecided on the issue of independence compared to Scotland. Around 20% of Welsh voters say that they are undecided or would not vote in an independence referendum, compared to around 10% in Scotland.  

Support for independence varies between different demographics and party alignment. Polls suggest younger voters and fluent Welsh speakers are more likely to support independence. Support for independence is unsurprisingly highest amongst Plaid Cymru voters and lowest amongst Conservative voters, and varies by region, with the highest support in mid and west Wales and the lowest in north Wales. 

What is the position of the Welsh parties on independence or other constitutional change?

As of May 2026, there are two pro-independence parties in the Senedd: Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Green Party, with 45 seats in total (less than the 49 seats needed for a majority). Plaid Cymru's constitution lists “securing independence for Wales in Europe” as one of the party’s primary aims. It also supports immediate further devolution to the Senedd, including over rail, welfare, justice and broadcasting. The Welsh Green Party is also pro-independence, and while their 2026 manifesto did not include any specific commitments on independence, their leader Anthony Slaughter has stated that independence is “essential to building the fairer, greener future for Wales”. ³¹ Green Party Wales, ‘Wales Green Party welcomes constitutional commission report as part of the journey of independence’ 18 January 2024, retrieved 6 May 2026, wales.greenparty.org.uk/2024/01/18/commission-pr/

All other parties represented in the Senedd oppose Welsh independence but hold varied views on further devolution to Wales.

Welsh Labour is supportive of further devolution. The party’s 2026 manifesto calls for devolution of the Crown Estate, policing and justice as well as stronger constitutional protections for the Welsh devolution settlement and a reformed funding system. ³² Welsh Labour, ‘A New Chapter for Wales: Manifesto 2026’, https://www.welshlabour.wales/manifesto-2026/  In a speech at the Institute for Government in January 2026, the Welsh Labour first minister, Eluned Morgan, stated that “Labour is the party of devolution”. However, she made clear that “advancing the cause of devolution is motivated by better delivery for the people of Wales not by any ideological move towards an independent Wales”.  

The Welsh Liberal Democrats also support further devolution within a federal United Kingdom. Their 2026 manifesto calls for devolution of policing, prisons, youth justice, probation, rail and the Crown Estate as well as increased powers over broadcasting, borrowing and tax. ³³ Welsh Liberal Democrats, ‘A Stronger Wales in a Stronger UK: Welsh Liberal Democrat Manifesto 2026’, https://www.libdems.wales/manifesto-2026

The Welsh Conservatives oppose further devolution. The party’s 2026 manifesto rules out extending the Senedd’s powers and “rejects Labour and Plaid Cymru’s efforts to devolve policing, justice and elements of welfare”. ³⁴ Welsh Conservatives, ‘Fix Wales: Welsh Conservative Party Manifesto 2026’, https://www.conservatives.wales/sites/www.conservatives.wales/files/2026-03/Welsh%20Conservatives%20Manifesto%202026%20EN_0.pdf

Reform UK oppose Welsh independence. The party’s 2026 manifesto does not reference independence or further devolution, but in September 2025, a party spokesperson said that while abolishing the Senedd would not appear in a manifesto, the party “do not want to shut the discussion down”. ³⁵ Deans D and Lewis G,’Is abolition of the Senedd Reform party policy or not?’, BBC News, 6 September 2025, accessed 26 January 2026, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx27mrxnzr2o

Could the Senedd hold a referendum on independence?

The question of whether the Senedd could hold an independence referendum has never been tested, since a majority for this policy has never existed.

However, precedent from the Scottish independence debate suggests that the Senedd could not hold a referendum on independence unless it were empowered to do so by the UK parliament.

The Wales Act 2017 lists “the union of the nations of Wales and England” and “the Parliament of the United Kingdom” as ‘reserved’ matters that the Senedd cannot legislate on.

In November 2022, the Supreme Court unanimously ruled that similar language in the Scotland Act prevented the Scottish Parliament legislating for a referendum without Westminster consent, saying “it is plain that a bill which makes provision for a referendum on independence – on ending the union – has more than a loose or consequential connection with the union”. ³⁶ UK Supreme Court, ‘Reference by the Lord Advocate of devolution issues under paragraph 34 of Schedule 6 to the Scotland Act 1998: Judgement’, https://www.supremecourt.uk/cases/uksc-2022-0098.html.

Any Welsh independence referendum would therefore almost certainly require the passage of authorising legislation at Westminster, as occurred in advance of the Scottish independence referendum in 2014 when the power to organise such a vote was temporarily devolved.