Rishi Sunak will be judged on how much of the 2019 manifesto he delivers

Standing on the Downing Street tarmac, making his first speech as prime minister, Rishi Sunak pledged that “at the heart of [the Conservative party’s] mandate is our manifesto. I will deliver on its promise.” In doing so, he echoed calls made by MPs throughout the abbreviated Conservative leadership contest that followed Liz Truss’s brief and aborted attempt to radically change government policy: that the platform they were elected on in 2019 should be the guide for what comes next. While clearly a politically convenient argument for a prime minister resisting calls for an early election, Sunak’s commitment to the manifesto is also conducive to good government. 

Sunak is right to focus on delivering the manifesto  

During his first Conservative leadership campaign, Sunak made a pragmatic case for sticking to the manifesto in an interview with Conservative Home. During that campaign he broke with the manifesto on a small number of issues, like fracking. ^[1] But overall he argued that “we’re actually relatively close to a general election…[so] a screeching U-turn on lots of policies that were in the 2019 manifesto is going to be tricky to implement.”  

This was a strong argument. The manifesto forms the basis of a lot of the ongoing work of Whitehall, with our December 2021 analysis of the document showing 51% of pledges were ‘underway’ or ‘on track’. Three months have since been lost to two leadership contests, and reversing course wholesale and beginning the policymaking process anew would leave Sunak little chance of getting things done in the two-or-so years before he has to call an election.  

A focus on the manifesto is also sensible to help Sunak manage his parliamentary party. The Conservative backbenches have been rancorous and disunified, and Sunak only won the public backing of 55% of his MPs. He will need to bring his parliamentary party with him, and a rhetorical and practical focus on delivering the manifesto that they all stood on at the last general election – something many of them have been publicly calling for – will help. MPs latched on to differences between Truss’s policies and the 2019 manifesto as a reason to doubt her leadership. Sunak cannot allow the same to happen to him. 

Key fiscal pledges in the 2019 manifesto are impossible to deliver 

But some of the promises set out in the 2019 manifesto were mutually incompatible. The manifesto pledged not to raise any of the main taxes – income tax, National Insurance or VAT – while also promising to uphold tight fiscal rules and spend a lot of money fixing big problems like social care, digital and physical connectivity, as well as delivering world-class public services. These were always unlikely to be reconcilable, and the combined impact of the covid pandemic and the recent strife in the markets means they are now impossible to deliver. 

At the autumn statement it is likely that chancellor Jeremy Hunt will raise taxes and cut spending – in direct contradiction to the ‘cakeism’ of the 2019 manifesto. The events of the last two years have given Hunt cover to change course. The reality, however, is that some sort of climbdown was always likely to be necessary. It should be a lesson to future manifesto-writers that baking contradictions into a prospective government’s policy programme will cause problems further down the line and should – where at all possible – be avoided. 

There is a tough challenge ahead to deliver on other pledges 

In his Downing Street speech (and subsequently, at his first prime minister’s questions), Sunak placed particular emphasis on a few areas – “a stronger NHS. Better schools. Safer streets. Control of our borders. Protecting our environment. Supporting our armed forces. Levelling up and building an economy that embraces the opportunities of Brexit”. 

The government has delivered some key manifesto commitments in the areas Sunak namechecked. But there are plenty of pledges yet to be ticked off. For example, the manifesto pledged a £9.2bn investment into the energy efficiency of buildings, around £3bn of which has yet to materialise. It promised to ‘improve A&E performance’, but it is the worst it has ever been, with people waiting longer than ever for care. It pledged to hire 50,000 new nurses and 20,000 new police officers – but both are behind schedule. It committed to build and fund 40 new hospitals over the next 10 years – which was subsequently defined to include substantial refurbishments of existing hospitals and given an amber rating by the Infrastructure and Projects Authority under the new definition. ^[2] And there are warning signs that delivery of a new agricultural regime based on ‘public money for public goods’ might be at risk. 

This is a big to-do list, particularly for a government that needs to react to multiple short-term crises. Given the limited money, political capital and time the Sunak administration possesses, it will be very difficult to deliver them all in full and in places he may have to adhere to the spirit, not letter, of the document. But that is no reason not to try – and unlike attempting to deliver all of the manifesto’s tax and spending promises, it is at least not a contradictory set of ambitions. Delivering the manifesto means investing prime ministerial energy and attention into these pledges. Sunak has yet to set out how his Number 10 will operate, but previous prime ministers have made it the explicit responsibility of a policy unit or delivery unit, sometimes under the political leadership of a cabinet office minister, to ensure key manifesto promises are implemented. Sunak should do the same, making Oliver Dowden, his recently appointed Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and a former minister for implementation well-versed in the delivery of manifesto commitments, responsible for providing the day-to-day political backing necessary to guide key pledges through the system. 

By setting out his stall on the manifesto so clearly, Sunak is giving allies and opponents alike a yardstick to help measure the effectiveness of his government. He has been dealt a bad hand, inheriting a party in turmoil and a country facing difficult fiscal decisions, and he won’t be able to deliver everything that was promised in full. But he is right to focus on implementing what he can. 

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1. https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1585276548986376192 
2. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1092181/IPA_AR2022.pdf