Holding the Union together may be this government’s biggest challenge

Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, has called on Boris Johnson to “respect her mandate” for a second independence vote. With the SNP securing 48 of Scotland’s 59 seats in Westminster, she will feel that she has a right to be heard by the prime minister.

But her calls will fall on deaf ears. Johnson has been clear that he will not support another vote, arguing that the 2014 Scottish independence referendum was a ‘once-in-a-lifetime’ opportunity. But, as we argue in our latest report, if the Scottish public continue to vote for pro-independence parties then this position could become untenable. Simply refusing to grant the Scottish government the power to hold a referendum is not a sufficient strategy to hold the Union together.

Over the coming months and years, the UK government will have to navigate a whole range of Brexit-related devolution challenges, and its approach will determine the future of the United Kingdom. Johnson and his government need a plan to address the concerns of the devolved nations and make the positive case for the durability of the Union. A failure to get this right will only worsen the already strained relationships between the four governments, and potentially lead up to the breakup of the UK.

The UK government will face immediate battles over the Withdrawal Agreement Bill

The government plans bring back the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) soon after Parliament comes back. According to the Sewel Convention – which says that Westminster won’t ‘normally’ pass legislation that affects the powers of the devolved legislatures without their consent – the Scottish and Welsh parliaments, and the Northern Ireland Assembly (if it is back up and running) will be asked to vote on the bill.

The Scottish government has been on ‘Sewel strike’ since the UK government passed the EU Withdrawal Act 2018 without its consent, and has refused to approve any Brexit bills except in exceptional circumstances. But in the case of the WAB, the Welsh Assembly has also indicated that it will not give its consent to the legislation.

The principle of UK parliamentary sovereignty means that Westminster can legally proceed even if the devolved legislatures object to the bill, and it will probably have to do so in order to ratify the Brexit deal. But passing a major piece of constitutional legislation despite the objections of all the devolved nations of the UK would be unprecedented and will no doubt lead to accusations that the devolution settlement counts for nothing in Westminster.

Brexit and devolution will collide to cause many challenges in the future

Further challenges are on the horizon. To prevent major divergence between the nations of the UK, the four governments will need to agree on ‘common frameworks’ to replace EU law in devolved areas. There has been good progress in discussions between officials, but disputes are likely at a political level.

There are also questions as to how EU funding will be replaced after the UK leaves the EU. The UK government has committed to introduce equivalent UK schemes such as the Shared Prosperity Fund, but the devolved administrations have concerns about the value and the allocation of future funding. Despite the UK government’s commitment that future schemes will respect the devolution settlement, there is suspicion that such programmes may be used to allow the UK government to spend directly in devolved areas.

And the UK will, of course, need to negotiate a future trade deal with the EU. This will have an impact on devolved areas such as agriculture, fisheries and environmental protections, and healthcare, and the devolved administrations may also have responsibility for implementing parts of the deal. Holyrood, Cardiff Bay and Stormont will have a strong interest in the next phase of talks and will want a role in negotiations. The Scottish and Welsh governments were highly critical of the UK’s approach to first stage of negotiations, during which most major decisions were taken on a unilateral basis.

The UK government needs a new approach to devolution

The Conservative manifesto highlighted the party’s commitment to the Union, but it was bereft of any concrete proposals to protect the integrity of the UK. If the prime minister wants to preserve and strengthen the Union, then he will have to explain how he will represent the interests of Scotland, England and Wales and repair relationships between the four governments of the UK.

The UK government needs to think about how to navigate the short-term political challenges over Brexit, but also put forward longer-term proposals to address the concerns of the devolved nations. This could include the devolution of additional powers to the devolved legislatures, new protections that prevent Westminster from legislating in devolved areas, or rights for the devolved institutions to be brought into international negotiations.

The future of the Union was always going to require serious thought, regardless of the result of the general election. But the huge Conservative majority, and what it means for the next stage of the Brexit process, means the UK is now set on a course for major constitutional collision unless the devolution settlement is given urgent attention.

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