Boris Johnson’s phone call with Ursula von der Leyen won’t end the Brexit drama just yet

Autumn was always going to be the Brexit crunch point. Although negotiators gave up their summer holidays to intensify talks, neither side was willing to give ground too quickly. Any Brexit compromise was only ever going to happen at a later point – and that point is fast approaching.

Both sides say they are committed to reaching a deal. Both sides want to be constructive. But both sides continue to caution that there are still strong points of disagreement.

These points of disagreement can only be unlocked at the very top. Today, the EU Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, spoke to prime minister Boris Johnson to take stock of talks. Their call has not produced an oven-ready deal, but it could provide a way forward to break some of trickiest deadlocks. Even so, the Brexit drama will not end with a phone call.

The von der Leyen/Johnson call will lead to an opening

The ninth round of Brexit talks ended rather predictably: there has been some movement, but not enough for talks to enter “tunnel mode” – a final round of intensified talks to hammer out a deal. Progress is still needed across a range of issues, including the major stumbling blocks of subsidies, fisheries and finding an institutional structure to manage future divergence.

Early concessions now could mean less room for manoeuvre later, but with fewer than 100 days to go the UK and EU are fast running out of time. The prime minister and the Commission president have confirmed their intentions to intensify talks.

Any outline agreement will be subject to intense political pressure

If an agreement is reached, it will be the result of compromise which will not satisfy everyone. As negotiators edge closer to the finishing line, the noises off will grow ever louder. Ay announcement is likely to be followed by last-minute pitches and posturing across the continent, from Tory backbenchers threatening to boycott a deal, to MEPs angry they will have barely any time to scrutinise the deal.

For the deal to hold, both sides will need to hold firm and resist the pressure – and block out the anger – in Westminster and Brussels. Both sides want to avoid a combination of a no deal Brexit and the economic hit of the coronavirus crisis, and both are aware that their citizens are bored of Brexit. The EU position has shifted too. Throughout the Article 50 negotiations the EU was worried that an easy Brexit victory would weaken the bloc, especially if other member states decided to follow suit. That fear is long gone; the EU27 are now far more relaxed about the UK claiming a future trade deal as a victory.

There will still be talk of no-deal preparation

Reaching a deal does mean a deal is guaranteed. Important technical and legal processes also need to happen, and businesses and citizens will need to time to adjust to the radically different trading relationship that will come into effect on 1 January. For many areas, this preparation looks the same for a basic deal is it does for no deal.

There there is voting. Voting in the UK is easier this time round as the government is under no obligation to schedule a vote on the final deal. But it’s more complicated on the EU side. To avoid a no-deal, both the Council – the grouping of the 27 governments – and the EU Parliament would need to vote before 11 pm on 31 December 2020. But even if the EU27 informally sign off on a deal, they won’t ratify it until the EU Parliament has had its stay. Ideally, the vote in the EU Parliament would  need to happen between the 14 and 17 December which is when it is holding its last plenary of the year. They could be recalled for an extraordinary vote, but no-one wants that at Christmas time. MEPs will also want time to discuss the deal too at committee stage.

The mood music surrounding a deal is positive, but there is still a lot that could go wrong. Today’s phone call has provided some clarity on the way forward, but it did not bring about certainty.