Migration policy is an early test for Rishi Sunak's competent government claims

When David Cameron was looking for a stick to beat up the then Labour government he lit on migration and promised to reduce it to “tens of thousands” when in power. That tapped into growing public concern over inward migration from Central and Eastern Europe, which had massively exceeded government estimates of the consequences of allowing free movement straight away, while other EU  countries imposed transitional controls. The government’s failure to meet that target was a significant motivator for some at least of the Leave vote in 2016 – and the promise to “take back control of our borders” was one Brexit commitment that the UK could deliver unilaterally. However, home secretary Suella Braverman has now admitted that the government had failed.

Exhibit A in that failure is the crisis in the asylum system – the growing backlog, the rising expenditure on dealing with asylum seekers while they wait for a decision and the failure to reduce the number of people coming to the UK by irregular means. Finding a way of sorting this out is, we are told, one of the prime minister’s top priorities.

But Exhibit B in the “failure” is new figures published by the ONS which showed net migration into the UK running at over half a million in the year to June 2022. The test for Sunak is how he responds.

Sunak needs to explain the special factors lying behind the latest figures

The ONS itself has said that the numbers reflected special factors. There was some hangover from the pandemic (earlier numbers were revised down), but the figures also reflect the success of three specific refugee schemes, all of which the government has taken credit for and which have wide popular support – the schemes for Hong Kong, Afghanistan and Ukraine. It is also unlikely that those numbers will be repeated. Those make up a substantial proportion of the “other” category which also includes people coming over to join their families.

The PM also needs to explain that other numbers show that government policy is doing what it was designed to. In terms of economic migration, the government’s new global points based system seems to be working. It has effectively deterred low skill (aka low paid) migration and there is a net outflow of EU citizens. But they have been replaced by a surge in the number of people from such countries as India and Nigeria to work in the NHS or in IT. That was the outcome the government’s new system was designed to deliver.

The third area of focus is on student numbers. In normal times the “netness” of the net migration figures means most incoming students are offset by those who came a few years earlier and are departing. The pandemic has disrupted that and ministers seem to be focussing on a big gross number. What they seem to be missing is that in an economy where trade is taking a post-Brexit hit, and growth is anaemic at best, overseas students wanting to come here in increasing numbers is a bonus for the economy not a drag.

Sunak should resist a knee-jerk reaction

The headlines the day after the figures were announced threatened a crackdown on student numbers – or banning students from taking low quality courses. If courses are good enough for British students, it makes no sense for them to be denied to overseas students. Indeed, confining high fee paying overseas students into the best universities would risk a whole bunch of unintended consequences for British students. On this Sunak should side with the Departments for Education, International Trade and, we assume, the Treasury, and resist Home Office calls to play this particular numbers game. Even critics of high levels of immigration have called for students (who generally come in and then leave) to be excluded from the headline statistics.

Indeed, over time the government could consider whether it wants to make it easier for people who obtain higher qualifications here to stay. Canada regards student visas as a key part of its talent acquisition system. But in the short-run, the priority is to stop the Home Office damaging a bright spot in the UK economy.

Sunak should also be prepared to defend the impact of the points based system which is leading to more non-EU migration while migration from the EU plummets. The big pull here at the moment is the need to fill vacancies in the NHS. There is no obvious other way to plug that in the short-run.

Sunak – and Starmer – need to engage with business on labour shortages

At the recent CBI conference, both Sunak and Starmer turned a deaf ear to the calls from business to ease inward migration to deal with labour shortages in low skilled work. Sunak talked about illegal migration; Starmer about training – when business is crying out for bodies. This is the gap intentionally left by the end of free movement. But it is placing a lot of businesses under strain –and the answer of paying or investing more is not helping many in the middle of a cost crisis.

Both parties need to have a sensible dialogue with business about how to ease these immediate strains – which are damaging growth and exacerbating pressures on prices. Reducing economic inactivity is one route. But a more nuanced approach to migration may be another.