The resilience of the political establishment

The huge swing in favour of the Republicans, and against the Democrats, since Barack Obama’s victory two years ago has been portrayed not only as a stunning rebuff to the President and an expression of widespread fears over the fragile state of the American economy but also as a revolt against the Washington establishment. This has been vividly illustrated by the rise of the populist and anti-big government Tea Party movement. Career politicians hold out But the political class – of  career politicians – has proved to be remarkably resilient. Virtually all the Republican victors on Tuesday, especially to the Senate, were not newcomers to politics but seasoned veterans. Rob Portman, who won a Senate seat in Ohio, spent 12 years in the House of Representatives and served at a senior level in the Bush administration. Similarly, Roy Blount, the new Senator for Missouri, was formerly senior in the Republican’s leadership in the House. The winners  in Arkansas, Indiana, Pennsylvania and Illinois were also former House members, while a former Senator won in Indiana and a Governor in North Dakota. A mixed day for the Tea Party The Tea Party movement undoubtedly energised the Republican campaign. But the key to the outcome was the Democrats' failure to mobilise younger and ethnic minority voters and its sharp loss of support among self-styled independents – who switched on a massive scale to the Republicans. Moreover, Tea Party candidates had a mixed day. The vocal Tea Party champion Rand Paul held an open seat in Kentucky for the Republicans, and Marco Rubio won a three way race in Florida, having had strong Tea Party support in the primary. But Mr Rubio is a former Speaker of the Florida House. There were other victories for the Tea Party in the House and among several new state Governors. However, high profile Tea Party candidates  failed to capture Nevada and Delaware when more mainstream Republican candidates might have done so. And Lisa Murkowski was leading in Alaska against Joe Miller, the official Republican, who was backed both by the Tea Party and by Sarah Palin, the movement’s heroine and former vice-presidential candidate. So a plausible contrarian view is that these three Tea Party candidates may have cost the Republicans the chance of capturing the Senate. Parallels with Britain The broader lesson is that electoral politics still favours committed professionals. Similarly, in Britain last May, for all the talk about an uprising against the Westminster establishment, independent candidates failed to make any impact. Career politicians have the advantages in resources and experience to win selection — either via primaries or by smaller groups — and they realise the dangers of appearing too controversial or weird. Christine O'Donnell was doomed in Delaware after she admitted dabbling with witchcraft. Winners stay clear of the occult.