The general election still leaves the EU braced for another year of Brexit uncertainty

The general election has produced the largest Conservative majority since the era of Margaret Thatcher. Boris Johnson is now set to get his withdrawal agreement approved by Parliament. But reaction is mixed across the EU. On the one hand, the prime minister’s victory provides greater clarity: the UK will be out of the EU on 31 January and talks can finally turn to the future relationship. On the other hand, no-one in the EU27 believes a comprehensive trade deal can be reached by the end of 2020 when the transition period draws to a close.

Without a clear steer from the UK on what it wants, several options are on the table: a future deal, no deal and extension. The outcome of future talks will depend on the prime minister’s ambition and what the EU is ready to offer in return. This will only become clear later next year.

The EU want trade talks to begin as soon as possible

The election result will come as a relief for many in the EU. Johnson’s comfortable majority means parliament can now pass the withdrawal agreement bill and pave the way for future trade negotiations. The new EU Council president, Charles Michel, says the EU are ready. Since the summer the EU Commission has been working on a mandate which member states are expected to approve in the new year. It has also expanded its negotiating team. Providing the UK is prepared to begin, talks could start as early as February.

The EU27 are waiting on the UK to clarify what it wants

However, there is still some apprehension in Brussels about the upcoming negotiations. The UK still needs to clarify the kind of deal it wants before negotiations can begin. Ratification could also become a problem; the European Parliament, and possibly member-state national parliaments, will want time to scrutinise the deal. With less than 11 months to go before the transition period ends, the EU will need to move fast.

The EU are preparing for several outcomes

If there is a deal to be done, it will be the outcome of compromise. If the prime minister wants a comprehensive deal, the EU believe he will have no choice but to extend the deadline or accept at least some of the EU’s demands around maintaining a level-playing field – for example on state aid and environmental standards. Some in the EU still think this is a possibility: a sizeable majority means the prime minister can afford to lose the support of some of his MPs. He could change his mind at the last minute.

Alternatively, the EU could negotiate a very basic deal covering the key elements of trade in goods (customs, level-playing field commitments, fisheries and governance). The EU would then offer unilateral and time-limited measures for those areas not covered in the deal, such as financial services. But this is not without its own set of challenges. Member states have different interests when it comes to the UK and some are worried that they could lose out if the EU Commission sticks to a rigid mandate which focuses exclusively on goods.

A stronger majority may help to break the Brexit deadlock in the UK Parliament, but it will not necessarily strengthen the UK’s negotiating hand in Brussels. For the withdrawal agreement, the prime minister argued that he needed revisions to get the deal through parliament. Given the prime minister now has more room for manoeuvre, this negotiating strategy is unlikely to carry the same weight. In addition, the trade-offs for the EU have not changed: the more the UK diverges from EU standards, the harder it will be to access the EU’s market. EU businesses are also concerned about the UK gaining a competitive advantage.

Some EU member states are worried about Scotland

The election outcome also brings other considerations to the fore; in particular, concerns over growing pressure on the durability of the United Kingdom. Nicola Sturgeon, who led the SNP to impressive gains in the general election, has already declared that she would push for another independence referendum.

When Scotland organised its last referendum, the EU made it clear that a vote for independence would not be followed by a straightforward route to membership. An independent Scotland would have been required to secure the unanimous support of all member states, including the UK – which at this point was still a member state. But Brexit could change this: with the UK out of the EU, Scotland’s bid for membership would seem to be easier. However, some in the EU27 – particularly those with strong nationalist movements like Spain and Cyprus – may still be opposed.

The UK’s withdrawal agreement with the EU may finally set to be passed by Parliament, but the challenge of negotiating and signing off on the terms of the future relationship are only just beginning.