A UK–EU deal is still possible

The outcome of EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier’s press conference following the fourth round of UK–EU talks was predictable. There has been some movement, especially on the security partnership front, but no major breakthroughs. Significant differences, over fisheries and the level playing field, remain. A statement by Barnier’s UK counterpart, David Frost, suggests the UK feels the same.

But despite these obstacles, both sides think a deal by December is possible – but only if negotiators ramp up talks and are ready to hammer out some compromises. It looks to be a busy summer.

A sense of déjà vu

Even if a deal is agreed, the time it takes to ratify and implement it means the timetable for negotiations is in fact shorter than the seven months to December. To avoid a cliff edge, the UK and the EU need to pass the deal in time and prepare for their new trading reality. This means that, as in 2019, October could be the crunch month, with Barnier even putting 31 October forward as a deadline.

For the UK, ratification could happen relatively quickly this time round, however. It is likely that the government will need to pass primary legislation to implement a deal, but with the numbers on its side, thanks to its 80+ strong majority, this could happen relatively quickly. But it is still a lot more complicated for the EU. The risk is not so much that the EU rejects the deal, but that it simply runs out of time to vote it in. The EU council – the grouping of the 27 EU government heads – would need to approve the deal. Some member states, like Germany and Belgium, may want time to debate it in their respective parliaments first. Plus, the council will only vote on the agreement once the European Parliament has – though its last plenary is scheduled for the 14 December 2020, MEPs will want to debate the deal in relevant committees.

More progress is needed on implementing the Withdrawal Agreement

The other area where progress is needed is on the implementation of the Northern Ireland protocol. While Barnier welcomed the UK government’s command paper on the protocol, member states want more detail on how the ‘modalities’ will work – not least on how the UK intends to perform checks on mainland GB goods that are destined to enter the EU single market via Northern Ireland.

But it is not just the UK that needs to work to meet its commitments in the Withdrawal Agreement. In response to a letter by Michael Gove, the European Commission promised it would step up its work to help EU governments register UK citizens living and residing in the EU and guarantee their rights. With more than one million UK citizens living in EU countries, this is no small task.

'Some progress' will only turn into breakthroughs later in the summer

Despite all of this, the EU remains confident that a deal is possible – but this will require more talks over the summer. It also acknowledged – and for the first time on record in this round of talks – that it would require both sides to compromise. On fisheries, a long-running flashpoint in the Brexit talks, Barnier hinted that a final agreement would need to be somewhere between the UK and the EU’s positions. He also intimated that a compromise on state aid was possible. While no date has been set yet for the next rounds of talks, they are expected to take place in early July after a summit between Johnson and the presidents of the EU commission and council, Ursula von der Leyen and Charles Michel respectively.

It is normal for negotiating parties to be far apart in the first months of negotiations – but those months are fast running out and the reality is that talks cannot afford to stay stuck for much longer. If they collapse, there is no status quo to fall back on. Even a no-deal outcome will require preparation.

If a deal is to be reached, both sides will need to move – and fast. A return of tunnel talks – intensive negotiations lasting many hours at a time to hammer out a compromise – is very likely. This may not be the summer that politicians and negotiators on either side of the Channel dream of, but it may well be necessary.