The UK government has 12 key months to build on the COP26 deal

The prime minister was denied the full triumph he wanted in Glasgow. The last-minute coordinated rug-pull by the Indian and Chinese delegations prevented him from being able to claim that COP26 had delivered an end to coal use, leaving COP president Alok Sharma holding back tears. The chance of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees, as the IPCC has called for, may not quite be dead but it is “hanging by a thread”, according to Chris Stark of the Climate Change Committee.

However, the Glasgow Climate Pact did make substantial progress in other areas. While one of the eternal truths of climate action is that pledges and bold targets come a lot easier than actions to deliver them, the UK can play a leading role in keeping up the momentum. This will require a combination of prime ministerial commitment at home and Sharma’s diplomatic effort overseas.

The UK government needs to keep up its diplomatic focus

One of the biggest achievements of COP26 was to finalise the so-called Paris rulebook. This will help improve transparency and, combined with an important agreement to shorten the gap between reviews of nationally determined contributions from five years to one, create a stronger ratchet to make countries accountable for their progress. A novel approach from the UK presidency also resulted in a set of impressive side deals, with the UK building coalitions of countries which signed up to new pledges on areas including trees and methane.

But the UK, which holds the COP presidency for the next 12 months, and Egypt, next year’s host, now need to focus on lining up concrete improvements in time for the next meeting. Firstly, the UK and Egyptian teams need to ensure that signatories follow through – with bold commitments turned into policies that start to make a difference. The second focus for Sharma is to expand the coalitions built in Glasgow to bring in those who sat on the sidelines – perhaps the best place to start is for the UK to bring pressure to bear on the Australians to join the coal coalition and for the EU to work with a new German government to get all its car makers to accept the need to end the sale of ICE vehicles.

Third, rich countries need to step up financial support, which remains the biggest sticking point. Their failure to make good on an 11-year-old promise of $100bn to developing countries is a totemic issue, and it is vital that Sharma can show that they are on track for the revised timetable by the next COP. Yet there was recognition in Glasgow that even this figure would be nowhere near enough, with countries starting to discuss other ways to leverage larger transfers. This will be critical if countries are serious about accelerating progress – and there appears to be room for more bilateral deals, building on the successful model of the deal South Africa struck with a group of rich countries.

Boris Johnson needs to show he can follow through on net zero at home

The publication of the UK’s own net zero strategy put it in a leadership position in Glasgow, showing it had not just bold targets but a pathway to achieve them. The risk is that, with Glasgow done, the prime minister's focus wavers. The glass-mostly-empty interpretation of Glasgow may give succour to the sceptics on his backbenches who are dubious about the affordability of net zero, and nervous Red Wall MPs could join forces with them to try and slow down domestic progress.

If the prime minister wants net zero to be a defining theme of his premiership, he will need to make sure his ministers realise that is still a top priority. That does not mean creating a new net zero department for Alok Sharma – it would be more sensible to keep him in a powerful international diplomacy role. But it does mean making sure his government is set up to deliver net zero, as we’ve argued before. 

The global push for net zero is an opportunity for Global Britain

Glasgow was a relatively successful first big outing for Global Britain. UK diplomacy drew plaudits, as did the work of "No drama” Sharma, who appeared to revel in the unlikely inheritance of Obama’s epithet. The US and China were clearly big players – though the US team were partly hamstrung by politics at home.

More notable was the extent to which the EU punched below its weight. This may be because there is a caretaker government in Germany or an upcoming election in France. It may be because it is internally divided over its Fit for 55 plan. It may be because the EU used to rely greatly on UK leadership in climate negotiations – or because Brexit has weakened relationships and made cooperation more difficult than it should have been. Whatever the reason, it is vital that the bloc gets it act together if the coalition of rich countries is to act as effectively as it needs to in the coming years.

In an arena given to false dawns and setbacks, the Glasgow Climate Pact was neither slam dunk nor disaster but an impressive feat of international diplomacy. The next 12 months give the UK a chance to build on the summit’s progress, both to lead the global charge towards net zero but also to demonstrate the role Global Britain can play on the world stage.