Boris Johnson’s only remaining option is to focus on core priorities  

After his bruising victory in Monday’s vote of confidence, the prime minister had pledged to come out fighting. Boris Johnson will know, however, that he is on shaky ground. He has, for now, lost the support of nearly half his MPs, and many in his party are already looking beyond his leadership. But while his authority has taken a massive hit, Johnson's survival gives him, if he is serious about focusing on delivery, a narrow window to make progress on some core priorities. 

The prime minister must be realistic about what he can achieve

The next two years will be difficult for the Conservative Party and for the country, whatever Johnson does and whoever is prime minister. The economic outlook for the country is grim, and the policy splits within Conservative ranks have been growing for some time. Worryingly for Johnson, these disagreements run far wider than the Brexit divisions which marked Theresa May’s premiership.  

Johnson might be tempted to take heart from the fact that those opposed to him are not a coherent group, yet. In practice, this actually makes things worse: the risk is "appeasing one group with one concession only to annoy another" as Nikki Da Costa – who used to manage parliamentary problems for both Johnson and May – has said. This is likely to make Johnson’s policy platforms more incoherent, rather than less. 

So he should focus on a few areas where he can show progress and where the majority of the party wants to see action, such as tackling the cost of living crisis or the levelling up agenda. Announcing more divisive policies – the impending bill on the Nothern Ireland protocol for example – will not work in this context. There was already a need for prioritisaton – as we have argued previously, the Queen’s Speech was always too big. That need has now become a pressing one for the prime mininster.  

The time for resets and rhetoric is over

Johnson has a habit of promising to relaunch and reset, and of making aspirational policy pledges that then fade into nothing. We are already seeing signs that this is happening again, with Sajid Javid reportedly telling cabinet that the NHS "is a Blockbuster system in the age of Netflix". The prime minister’s spokesman later told journalists that Johnson wanted to “turn the NHS into a blockbuster system in the age of Netflix”, but the lost in translation metaphor still suggests that Johnson’s interpretation of ‘delivery' is yet more grand but ill-defined visions that are more slogan than substance. The opposite is what is needed to win over his party and, perhaps, the public. 

The same is true of any plans Johnson might have for, yet again, relaunching his team. The departures of Dominic Cummings and Lee Cain were meant to usher in a different approach to governing, while Sue Gray’s first report into partygate saw Johnson replace the replacements. It is not at all clear that the new team have solved the problems Johnson was criticised for: in particular, Steve Barclay double jobbing as a ministerial chief of staff does not seem to have clarified the lines of accountability. Besides, over two fifths of his parliamentary party seem to have concluded that the problem is not the people around him but the prime minister himself. Blaming others for the failings of this No.10 will no longer work. Knuckling down with the team he has chosen, and making actual progress on the basics of good government rather than issuing more promises of world-beating jam tomorrow, might just persuade some of his MPs that the prime minister is fixing, rather than is, the problem.  

The risks of a reshuffle may well outweigh the possible gains

A reshuffle is rumoured to be imminent. Johnson has, rightly, indicated this isn’t his priority. His talent pool has shrunk, and it is hard to remove big name supporters. It is also disruptive to rip up lower ranks, with junior ministers responsible for carrying legislation and delivering key policies. Even a few prominent changes could set departments back months. If No.10 is worried about how well departments are working then there are other changes – including looking at the role of the centre in delivery – to be explored before overhauling ministerial ranks.

More immediately, the politics of a reshuffle can easily backfire and expose weakness if a minister refuses to go quietly or refuses to move at all. A reshuffle would also expose promises of promotion, made in the run up to the confidence vote, as worthless, leading to even more disappointed MPs on the backbenches. Even if limited, doing a reshuffle is likely to add the frustrations in his party. 

The prime minister is in a bind, largely of his own making. His room for manoeuvre is limited and much of his political capital spent. For now, however, he still has time to focus on what he can achieve, what might unite (enough) of his party and what might actually do some good for the country.