Boris Johnson government formation - 2019 general election

End of day 2 of the minor government reshuffle

17 December 2019, 18:31

So where are we after this minor reshuffle?

There’s only one new face around the Cabinet table. Of all the reshuffles following an election or change of prime minister since 1997, this one has had the least Cabinet turnover. There’s only one new face: new Secretary of State for Wales, Simon Hart.

Nicky Morgan will be granted a peerage in order to retain her role as Secretary of State for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport. We assume the same is true of Zac Goldsmith, a minister of state at Defra and DfID who attends Cabinet – although there has been no official announcement, he is still listed as a minister on GOV.UK. (I’ve also been reduced to squinting at the Cabinet photo to see if that yields any clues.)

Simon Hart’s promotion, MPs choosing not to stand in the general election and other MPs losing their seats meant there were gaps to fill in the junior ministerial ranks.

It looks like the following moves have happened (Downing Street hasn’t published a full list on its website or on Twitter):

• Jeremy Quin moves from the whips' office to replace Simon Hart (who became the new Welsh secretary yesterday) at the Cabinet Office
• Kevin Foster replaces Seema Kennedy (who stood down at the election) at the Home Office
• David TC Davies replaces Foster at the Wales Office, and also become a whip (Foster apparently remains one as well)
• At the Ministry of Defence, Anne-Marie Trevelyan steps up from being parliamentary under secretary for defence procurement to replace Mark Lancaster (who stood down at the election) as minister of state. She in turn is replaced by James Heappey, former parliamentary private secretary to the prime minister, who enters government for the first time
• Robin Walker leaves his position in the Scotland Office, but remains a parliamentary under secretary at the Northern Ireland Office.

In other moves apparently made last night, but not obvious until this evening:

• Douglas Ross joins the Scotland Office (in place of either the departing Walker, or Colin Clark, who lost his seat) and a fellow member of the 2017 intake of MPs, Scotland Secretary Alister Jack
• Mike Freer is promoted within the whips’ office, replacing Jeremy Quin as a deputy chief whip
• Iain Stewart is promoted within the whips’ office to replace Freer
• Maria Caulfield replaces Stewart as an assistant whip
• Nusrat Ghani relinquishes her role as a whip to concentrate on her position at the Department for Transport.

All of the new junior ministers should definitely read our guide to becoming one.

Thank you for following over the last couple of days, as we’ve explored machinery of government changes (including DfID – expect more on this in a bigger February reorganisation), Labour’s position (still 19 gaps to fill on their frontbench), Scotland, Brexit, gender diversity, the Wales Office, DCMS, parliament, the election result, the polls and much more.

Presumably the government will actually publish a full list of its members, at some point, so we may be back with more, at some point. Otherwise, thank you for following and have a lovely evening.

International development developments

17 December 2019, 18:04

We discussed machinery of government changes – creating, abolishing, merging or otherwise changing departments – yesterday. One of the changes being briefed before an expected reorganization in February is folding the Department for International Development (back) into the Foreign Office.

As you can see from the chart, the international development brief has seen a fair amount of reorganization already down the years. The current department was created by Labour after their election win in 1997.

(Fun fact: Lynda Chalker, minister of state for overseas development and Africa from 1989 to 1997, did a ‘Nicky Morgan’ in 1992, ceasing to be an MP – she lost her seat, whereas Morgan stepped down – but being raised to the peerage to continue the same role. A hat tip to the indispensable Mr Memory for that one.)

Alistair Burt, a former joint junior minister at the Foreign Office and DfID, has written for the Guardian arguing that merging the two departments would be a bad idea:

"I hope the government will not make a hasty decision on merging DfID and the Foreign Office. A standalone DfID has been excellent for the UK’s reputation abroad, and those who work for it truly represent global Britain."

Civil Service World reports that more than 100 charities have written to the prime minister urging him not to abolish DfID.

Some light reading on devolution, and on social care

17 December 2019, 17:32

Jess has written about how ‘Government in Northern Ireland needs to be restored, but also reformed’:

"More than 1,000 days have passed since the government in Northern Ireland collapsed. The situation has become increasingly unsustainable, but the UK general election result has provided fresh impetus to restore power-sharing at Stormont. But while there is renewed hope, nothing is guaranteed.

"Multi-party talks on restoring the Northern Ireland executive have at least started. Julian Smith, the secretary of state for Northern Ireland, has set a deadline of 13 January for agreement to be reached. If the executive is not restored at this point, then he will call an Assembly election. 

"Politicians in Northern Ireland, Ireland and the UK should do all they can to get Stormont back up and running, but they should also think about how to address the more entrenched problems Northern Ireland now faces."

Jess and Jill’s recent report, Governing without ministers, is essential reading on Northern Ireland, and Jess, Akash and Kelly’s report on a possible second independence referendum is required reading on Scotland (we posted a summary on the live blog yesterday).

Meanwhile Nick argues that ‘Boris Johnson must now deliver his promised plan to fix social care’:

"Much now rests on the Conservatives’ other manifesto pledge on social care: to build cross-party consensus on a long-term solution for adult social care. There is good reason to be cynical about the prospects for progress. The government has promised to make a start on this within its first 100 days, but it is now more than 1,000 days since the Conservatives promised a yet-to-be-delivered green paper.

"The government has previously been unable or unwilling to find cross-party consensus, so why should it be any easier after such a rancorous general election and with the most difficult stage of Brexit to come? The risk is that seeking cross-party consensus becomes an excuse for once again kicking the issue into the long grass."

Nick and the Performance Tracker team have helpfully looked at all the numbers on adult social care, here. (You can actually *listen* to the chart below, here, or on our Inside Briefing podcast.)

Staying power - length of Cabinet service

17 December 2019, 16:44

Now-departed Secretary of State for Wales, Alun Cairns, had held his role for longer than any other minister attending Cabinet. His replacement, Simon Hart, is brand new to the top table.

Sajid Javid has the longest continuous stint in the Cabinet, having served prime ministers Cameron, May and Johnson, closely followed by Liz Truss. Michael Gove, Theresa Villiers, Matt Hancock, Andrea Leadsom, Gavin Williamson, Grant Shapps, Priti Patel, Nicky Morgan, Esther McVey, Dominic Raab and Boris Johnson himself have all had some time away from the Cabinet before their current stint.

What next for Brexit?

17 December 2019, 16:01

Earlier today, the Institute held an event that asked that very question. You can watch it or listen back here.

Some of our panelists have written recently on that very topic:

• Raoul Ruparel, former special adviser on Europe to Theresa May, wrote a report for us this week on how the UK does not yet appear ‘match-fit’ for the next phase of negotiations
• Joe wrote about how Boris Johnson has been given a blank cheque for Brexit – but cashing it won’t be easy
• Georgie argued that the general election still leaves the EU braced for another year of Brexit uncertainty.

Poll position

17 December 2019, 15:20

While we’re on the subject of the election…

A couple of weeks ago, we held an event asking: ‘Has the UK’s electoral system had its day?’ (You can watch it back here.) Last week, the first past the post system meant that the Conservatives got a much larger share of seats (56%) than they did votes (43.6%). This has often been the case for the two large parties. Lib Dems will feel hard done by – and not for the first time. They ended up with fewer MPs Lib Dems may have ended up with fewer MPs this time round, but their vote share was actually up four points – a much bigger increase than any other party.

These vote share results did not come as a complete surprise – 2019, it turns out, was a good year for pollsters. The Opinium forecast got the vote share for the three main parties bang on, while Ipsos MORI, Number Cruncher Politics and ComRes all got two of three correct.

When it comes to seat share, the exit poll, announced at 10pm, continues to be a good indicator of the final election result.

But at least one pollster – independent statistician Nigel Marriott – got even closer than the exit poll with the forecast he published on election day.

While there was huge interest around YouGov’s ‘MRP’ (‘multilevel regression and post-stratification’, for the uninitiated…) model, which successfully predicted a hung parliament in 2017, that approach proved less accurate this time.

Electoral knowledge

17 December 2019, 14:26

While we await confirmation of any further changes (will Zac Goldsmith become a lord and continue to attend Cabinet? Will anyone join Alister Jack at the Scotland Office?), here’s a reminder of how we got to here – how the Conservatives won a majority.

Tory candidates swept up marginal (and not-so-marginal) Labour seats at this election, with the party losing only a handful of its own – primarily in Scotland (and Putney – the only Labour gain).

The Conservative seat share was the highest it’s been since the 1980s…

…but its vote share was hardly any higher than in 2017, under Theresa May’s leadership.

All those lost Labour seats reflect an eight point drop in vote share since the 2017 election. As we noted yesterday, the party now has fewer MPs than any time since 1935.

Conservatives will be delighted to see a return to majority government – and will hope it lasts for longer than it did between 2015 and 2017.

After a number of elections with no or slender single-party majorities, this majority is the biggest for any party since 2005 and the biggest for the Conservatives since 1987.

Once those MPs who don’t vote (speaker, three deputy speakers – one yet to be elected, seven Sinn Fein members) are taken into account, that gives Boris Johnson’s government an effective parliamentary majority of 87, a luxury after the confidence and supply arrangements of the last parliament.

About churn

17 December 2019, 13:13

This chart shows which prime minister appointed ministers to their current posts (and, in the case of Johnson appointments, when).

Nick Gibb (DfE), Lord Keen of Elie (advocate general for Scotland) and Lord Howe (deputy leader of the Lords) are the only ministers still in posts given to them by David Cameron. Alun Cairns had been part of that select group before his resignation – now the Wales Office is the only part of government where everyone is new as of yesterday.

The Wales Office joins the Ministry of Defence, Scotland Office, Ministry of Justice, Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government, Office of the Leader of the House of Commons and the Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport in having all its ministers appointed to their posts by Boris Johnson.

We’ve written extensively about the dangers of changing ministers (at all levels) too often. Here’s Ken Clarke:

"I also say that the standard thing for a minister – my joke account of it always is when you first arrive, you are overwhelmed. All this stuff, people talk to you about all kinds of things, there are things you have never worked at before. And if you are not careful, you will get a moment of panic. You have finally gone up the slippery pole, you have gone a bit too high now and this is all too much and you are overwhelmed by it. 

"The next stage, after six months is you have got an agenda. You know exactly what you are going to do. We are going to look at X, Y, Z, that is what you are going to do, if you possibly can. The next stage, after two years, you are really on top of it. I mean, you really are comfortable, you are doing things. But you realise that the decisions you took after six months were wrong and you have changed your mind.

"After two years, you are sitting in control now, behind your desk, where you are really going to do this, this, and this. And then the phone rings and the prime minister is having a reshuffle and you move on to the next department and you are back at the beginning, there you are, panicking again."

Majority rule

7 December 2019 11:58

Back to the subject of parliament…

The Johnson government now has a majority – the biggest single party majority since the 2001 general election (and biggest Tory majority since 1987). You’ll see ‘majority of 80’ quoted a fair bit, but actually – once MPs unable to vote (the speaker, three deputy speakers – one of whom is yet to be elected) and not taking their seat (Sinn Fein) are taken into account – it’ll be an effective working majority of 87.

What does a majority government mean for parliament? Cath argues here that while the government may now have the upper hand, parliament still matters:

"Brexit and minority government changed the rules of what was normal in the last Parliament. With majority government back, many will feel that Parliament’s role is diminished – but the Johnson government cannot afford to be complacent.

"During times of majority the government has the upper hand when it comes to getting legislation through Parliament. It controls the order paper most of the time, can plan its agenda, whip MPs, and have confidence that it will win crucial votes. But Parliament also has an important role in scrutinising the government, and ministers will want to avoid embarrassment or mistakes when they are being scrutinised by fellow MPs."

And for more on what’s actually likely to happen in parliament this week…

Check out our explainer on what happens at the beginning of a new Parliament here, or watch Alice talk you through it here.

(Virtually) nothing has changed

17 December 2019, 11:03

Of all the reshuffles following a general election or change of prime minister since 1997, this one has had the lowest level of Cabinet turnover.

It’s perhaps not surprising, given Boris Johnson only appointed his first government in July 2019, and the rumours of a much more extensive reorganization after 31 January 2020.

Nonetheless, the contrast is striking – not least with Theresa May’s post-general election 2017 reshuffle, which had the second-lowest level of turnover since 1997. On that occasion, the loss of a Conservative majority restricted her room for manoeuvre.

(And a minor point on the chart: we’re currently counting Zac Goldsmith as a minister attending Cabinet until we hear otherwise.)

Minor reshuffle: Day two

17 December 2019, 10:00

Good morning, and welcome to day 2 of the minor government reshuffle.

Judging by news coverage and the ministers page on GOV.UK, it appears some junior ministerial appointments were made last night. (Rather unhelpfully, there doesn’t appear to be an official announcement from government anywhere.)

So as far as I can tell:

• Jeremy Quin moves from the whips' office to replace Simon Hart (who became the new Welsh secretary yesterday) at the Cabinet Office
• Kevin Foster replaces Seema Kennedy (who stood down at the election) at the Home Office
• David TC Davies replaces Foster at the Wales Office, and also become a whip (Foster apparently remains one as well)
• At the Ministry of Defence, Anne-Marie Trevelyan steps up from being parliamentary under secretary for defence procurement to replace Mark Lancaster (who stood down at the election) as minister of state. She in turn is replaced by James Heappey, former parliamentary private secretary to the prime minister, who enters government for the first time
• Robin Walker leaves his position in the Scotland Office, but remains a parliamentary under secretary at the Northern Ireland Office.
• It’s still not entirely clear what’s happened to Zac Goldsmith. There are rumours that, like Nicky Morgan (who yesterday became the first secretary of state in the Lords since Mandelson and Adonis under Gordon Brown), he will be elevated to the Lords and remain in his ministerial post, attending Cabinet. But I can’t find an official announcement anywhere.
• Colin Clark, who lost his seat, has also not yet been replaced at the Scotland Office or in the whips’ office.

End of day one?

16 December 2019, 19:58

Briefing over the weekend suggested today’s reshuffle would be minor. It would seem that briefing was right.

Simon Hart moves from the Cabinet Office, where he was minister for implementation, to become secretary of state for Wales. That role had been unfilled for more than five weeks, after Alun Cairns’ resignation at the start of November.

We were all ready to make a point of the new secretary of state for digital, culture, media and sport being the ninth person to hold that role since May 2010… except it turns out that Nicky Morgan will be elevated to the House of Lords and remain in post. (Eight is still more than any other department, though.)

The Downing Street Twitter account has gone quiet, so we’re still not entirely sure what’s happening to Zac Goldsmith (there had been rumours he would also be given a peerage and continue).

And, as you can see from this chart, there are some junior roles that still need filling, including Simon Hart’s old role in the Cabinet Office:

So, 'minor' though this reshuffle may be, it doesn't seem to have been possible to get it done within one day. We’ll be back tomorrow with more. 

Lady of leisure – and digital, and charities, and...

16 December 2019, 18:39

I wondered if it was tempting fate to assume that Nicky Morgan stepping down as an MP would mean she would cease to be secretary of state for digital, culture, media and sport.

She will be given a life peerage and therefore continue in her role. I think the last time a secretary of state role was held by a member of the Lords was Lord Mandelson, secretary of state for business, innovation and skills (and its predecessor department) and Lord Adonis at transport under Gordon Brown, but I'm willing to be corrected.

It also means that we will not have a ninth culture secretary since May 2010 - though eight still places it ahead of any other department.

Her predecessor, John Whittingdale, said that the civil servants at the Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport were:

"really, really good. I was hugely impressed by the quality of the staff and, you know, the sort of enthusiasm, the dedication, the loyalty; they were fantastic."

He also said that it’s a fun job:

"The great thing about DCMS is it’s a very enjoyable department, you do fun things and whatever brief you hold, you get the chance to go to concerts and football matches and galleries and all the rest. People going through DCMS generally love it because they are interesting issues too."

Hart of Wales

16 December 2019,18:15

That leaves a vacancy to be filled in Cabinet Office, where the minister for implementation's brief covers everything from digital government to major projects to government's commercial capability.

One of Hart’s predecessors, David Jones, talked to our Ministers Reflect project about the importance of working with lots of different people as Secretary of State for Wales:

"As a Wales Office minister, you’re essentially involved in a constitutional exercise and a public relations exercise. Obviously, there are very few administrative powers in the Wales Office but there is a lot of constitutional stuff. And, interestingly also, you have to be across the work of other departments too because other Whitehall departments obviously impinge upon Wales, so you frequently found yourself acting as a buffer in both directions between other government departments and – I hate using the word but I will – ‘stakeholders’ in Wales."

And here's a chart showing all his recent predecessors:

Parliament: summary of gender

16 December 2019, 17:54

One thing to watch, post-reshuffle (should it ever actually happen), will be the gender balance of the Cabinet.

After Boris Johnson’s first set of appointments in July 2019, more women were full Cabinet members than under Theresa May – but, when all ministers attending Cabinet were taken into account, the gender balance had tilted slightly towards men.

Parliament, though, has its highest-ever percentage of women.

220 women were elected to parliament last Thursday – that’s 34% of all MPs.

A higher percentage of Liberal Democrat MPs are women than in any other party: 7 of their 11 MPs are women (65%). The Labour Party also has more women than men, and the highest number of women MPs: 104 of their 202 MPs (51%).

Just two elections ago, the Liberal Democrats returned just 8 MPs to the House of Commons, and not a single woman was elected to the party.

Meanwhile, over the past three general elections, the percentage of women Conservative MPs has changed little, staying between 20 and 25 per cent.

Until last week, not a single party in parliament had hit 50% women representatives.

That said, the House of Commons doesn't fare so well in comparison to the UK's other elected bodies on gender balance. The Scottish Parliament, UK MEPs and Welsh and London Assemblies have all had higher percentages of women representatives since 1992.

Getting Brexit done

16 December 2019, 17:25

The first goal of Boris Johnson’s new government will be to get the UK to leave the EU on 31 January. But that is far from the last important date in his calendar.

Throughout 2020, Johnson will have to deal with high-level conferences, European Councils and the all-important end of transition. Here's an extremely useful timeline from our Brexit team:

A second independence referendum

16 December 2019, 16:45

Here's Kelly from our devolution team:

"Following the Scottish National Party’s resounding victory in Scotland – taking 48 of 59 seats – on a manifesto calling for a second independence referendum, we published a new report analysing how any such vote could potentially be held.

"In order to hold an independence referendum on a clear legal basis, the agreement of Westminster would be needed and Boris Johnson has ruled this out. But his position may not be sustainable in the face of continued success of Scotland’s pro-independence parties, and the report sets out that the UK general election has set Westminster and Holyrood on a collision course.

"The SNP intends to hold a referendum in 2020, however, we conclude that this timetable would not be advisable. The first referendum in 2014 took place more than three years after agreement on it was reached in principle.

"It would take time for the Scottish government to set out its vision for independence, and for the UK government to develop any potential alternative proposals for a reformed Union. The UK’s future relationship with the EU is unlikely to be agreed by 2020, so voters would also not have clarity on what remaining in the UK would look like.

"If Westminster and Holyrood did eventually agree that a second referendum was justified, they would also have to negotiate the conditions. The UK government may wish to make a second referendum conditional on the result of the 2021 Scottish Parliament election, which could be fought explicitly on this issue.

"Following the 2014 precedent, the power to legislate for the referendum should be devolved to Holyrood using a ‘section 30 order’, potentially with a condition that a minimum of 10 years would have to pass before the power could be used again. The Electoral Commission should be required to test the proposed question, the official campaign period should be at least 16 weeks and any threshold or ‘supermajority’ rule should ideally be based on cross-party agreement.

"If the prime minister wants to preserve the Union, he should take the time to develop a positive vision to try to persuade the people of Scotland that their interests lie within the UK.

"And just to underline the point about that 'resounding victory'..."

Labour pains

16 December 2019, 15:56

We’re focusing on the government reshuffle today, but it’s worth taking a moment to consider Labour’s position.

In terms of seats won, Thursday’s general election result was the worst for Labour since 1935.

The Conservatives increased their share of the vote slightly from 2017, while Labour dropped eight points.

We think the seats Labour lost, added to MPs that chose not to stand in the election, leaves 19 gaps on the Labour frontbench.

The most notable vacancy will, of course, be that of leader.

You can read more about how the leadership contest will work in our explainer.

Our director, Bronwen Maddox, was on BBC News earlier and talked about what Labour needs to do next here.

Replacing ministers

16 December 2019, 15:15

There are some ministerial posts to fill, for various reasons.

Back in November, Alun Cairns became the fourth minister to resign during Boris Johnson’s premiership.

More than five weeks on, that vacancy has still not been filled. Although it took Theresa May a long time to fill some of her ministerial gaps – an average of ten days per vacancy as of May 2019 – five weeks, for a Cabinet role, is unusual to say the least.

Nicky Morgan (DCMS), Seema Kennedy (Home Office), Mark Lancaster (MoD) and Nick Hurd (Northern Ireland) were among the 75 MPs at the end of the 2017-19 parliament that announced they wouldn’t stand in the 2019 general election. Double the number who went before the 2017 general election, but not that high by recent historical standards (though it was only a two year parliament).

Zac Goldsmith (Defra/DfID) became the 24th minister attending Cabinet to lose their seat since the 1945 general election. We had thought that Goldsmith's boss at Defra, Theresa Villers, might be in some trouble as hers was the smallest majority of any full member of the Cabinet... but in the event, she hung on.

Colin Clark, a junior minister in the Scotland Office and a whip, also lost his seat. 

Sense in some stability

16 December 2019, 14:30

We’re expecting this to be a relatively small reshuffle, with a bigger one to follow in February once the PM – presumably – gets his Brexit legislation passed. Tim has looked at what roles need filling now...

...and what changes Johnson might make in a couple of months.

He also cautions that frequent ministerial turnover is not good for government, and that Johnson would be well-placed to bring in ministers that he intends to be there for the long haul:

"Former ministers all agree that spending at least two years in a job is necessary to be able to do it effectively. As Ken Clarke told our Ministers Reflect project, constant reshuffles mean that "you move on to the next department and you are back at the beginning…panicking again”. Frequent moves are a distraction from the business of running the country."

Reshaping government?

16 December 2019, 14:00

While we wait for announcements on new ministerial roles today, it’s worth considering the rumours that Johnson may use a future reshuffle to announce big changes to the shape of government.

Tim wrote about some of the choices facing the PM for Prospect:

"Now that Boris Johnson has a clear majority in parliament, his attention may turn to the shape of government. His manifesto, unlike that of most other parties running in the election, made no commitments to creating new, or getting rid of existing, ministries. His immediate predecessor made big changes to the landscape of Whitehall: Theresa May created departments for Brexit and trade, while merging the energy and climate change department established by Gordon Brown into the business department. David Cameron, on the other hand, was deliberately cautious about making big changes, seeing it as a distraction from getting on with governing. Which model will Johnson follow?"

And you can read even more on handling machinery of government changes well in our recent report, Creating and dismantling government departments.

Welcome to the live-blog

16 December 2019, 13:00

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Institute for Government live blog, bringing you news of the government reshuffle as it happens.

Following his victory in Thursday’s general election, Boris Johnson is expected to make some ministerial appointments today.

Briefing over the weekend suggests any reshuffle will be quite light, with bigger changes expected in February, but there are some ministerial vacancies that need to be filled. These include some in the Cabinet:

•    Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport: secretary of state Nicky Morgan didn’t stand in the election
•    Wales Office: Alun Cairns resigned as secretary of state more than five weeks ago
•    Department for International Development/Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs: Zac Goldsmith, who was attending Cabinet, lost his seat.

And some junior roles:
•    Ministry of Defence: Mark Lancaster didn’t stand in the election
•    Home Office: Seema Kennedy didn’t stand in the election
•    Northern Ireland Office: Nick Hurd didn’t stand in the election
•    Scotland Office/Whips’ Office: Colin Clark lost his seat.

By way of comparison, here’s how extensive post-election reshuffles have been since 1997: