Future constitutional scenarios for the UK

This new paper analyses 16 future constitutional scenarios for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, ranging from Scottish independence to various models for further devolution.

Our analysis shows how the different proposed models compare in terms of the extent of tax-raising and public spending control that would be transferred to the devolved nations. We also discuss the practical implications of implementing such changes for government in Scotland and the rest of the UK, including the impact of Scottish independence on different Whitehall departments, and the new forms of intergovernmental cooperation that would be needed if additional powers are devolved to Edinbugh, Cardiff or Belfast.

The paper is published as part of the Institute for Government’s ‘Governing after the referendum’ project, which we are carrying out in partnership with the Future of the UK and Scotland programme led from the University of Edinburgh. After the referendum, whatever the result, the Institute will be publishing a further report on how the different parts of the UK (or its successor states) should be governed and how they should work together in the interests of all sides.

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