Performance Tracker 2022: Schools

The closure of schools was one of the starkest examples of public service disruption wrought by Covid, with in-person teaching not offered for most pupils for more than a quarter of the 2019–20 and 2020–21 academic years combined.^{*, 181 Department for Education, ‘Attendance in education and early years settings during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic: Week 28 2022’, 12 July 2022, https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-…} Schools are now attempting to make up for the learning lost during this time.

But while schools are receiving more funding than at any point in the preceding decade, staffing costs have increased, insufficient numbers of teachers are being trained in many subjects and schools are having to do more to support pupils with special educational needs and disabilities.

This chapter focuses on mainstream, state-funded schools in England serving pupils aged 5–16. It covers both local authority-maintained schools and academies but, unless otherwise stated, excludes special schools, alternative provision (schooling for those who cannot receive their education in mainstream schools, for example because of exclusion), early-years and post-16 education.

^{*        This chapter refers to both academic school years and financial years. We refer to school years as 20XX–YY, and financial years as 20XX/YY.}

Demands on schools have increased

Pupil numbers have been increasing overall in recent years, with a small decline in the number of primary school pupils being more than offset by an increase in secondary school pupil numbers. The government forecasts that pupil numbers peaked in 2022 and will decline for the next decade. ¹⁸² Department for Education, ‘National pupil projections: Reporting Year 2021’, 14 July 2022, https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/national-pupil-projections/2022

Other demands on schools have also increased. There has been a huge rise in the number of children who require a higher level of special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) support. Since 2016, the number of pupils with an education, health and care plan, which sets out specific support a child requires, has increased from 237,000 to 356,000. Around half of these pupils are in state-funded mainstream primary and secondary schools. ¹⁸³ Department for Education, ‘Special educational needs in England: Academic Year 2021/22’, 16 June 2022, https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/special-educational-needs-in-england/2021-22

Many schools are also finding that they are having to do more than in 2010/11 to make up for reduced local authority services and stretched children and young people’s mental health services. ¹⁸⁴ Institute for Government interview. Research suggests most local authorities that previously offered educational psychologists to schools for free now charge for the service. ¹⁸⁵ Staufenberg J, ‘Revealed: The rising costs for schools of educational psychologists’, Schools Week, 11 February 2022, retrieved 16 August 2022, https://schoolsweek.co.uk/revealed-the-rising-costs-for-schools-of-educational-psychologists And in a pre-pandemic survey by the National Foundation for Educational Research, more than half of secondary school leaders said that their school had contracted external specialists to deliver mental health and wellbeing services. ¹⁸⁶ National Foundation for Educational Research, Teacher Voice Omnibus Survey June 2019, December 2019, www.nfer.ac.uk/media/3825/teacher_voice_omnibus_survey_june_2019.pdf

Overall per-pupil funding has increased but funding reforms led to real-terms cuts for some schools in deprived areas

In both the 2019 spending round and the 2021 spending review, the government allocated more money to the core schools budget. ^{187 HM Treasury, Spending Round 2019, CP 170, The Stationery Office, September 2019.   188 HM Treasury, Autumn Budget and Spending Review 2021: A stronger economy for the British people (HC 822), The Stationery Office, October 2021.} This has been enough to counterbalance increasing pupil numbers: per-pupil funding for the 2021/22 financial year reached its highest level since 2010/11 in real terms, with schools receiving an average of £6,510 per pupil. ¹⁸⁹ Department for Education, ‘School funding statistics: Financial year 2021-22’, January 2022, https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/school-funding-statistics Stated in 2021/22 prices, this was intended to increase again to £6,698 per pupil in 2022/23 – high inflation since the Department for Education (DfE) produced this forecast at the start of 2022 will have eroded some of this gain, however.*

It should be noted that, including school sixth-forms (outside of the scope of this chapter, but where there have been greater funding cuts than in 5–16 education) and accounting only for general, economy-wide inflation, the Institute for Fiscal Studies forecasts that school spending per pupil will return to 2009/10 levels only in 2024/25. ¹⁹⁰ Sibieta L, ‘School spending and costs: the coming crunch’, Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2 August 2022, https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/output_url_files/IFS-BN347-School-spending-and-costs-the-coming-crunch.pdf

While per-pupil funding has increased on average, the experience of individual schools varies. The government introduced a national funding formula in 2018/19 to address discrepancies in funding that schools in different parts of the country received.^{*, 191 Department for Education, ‘Fairer school funding plan revealed’, press release, 7 March 2016, www.gov.uk/government/news/fairer-school-funding-plan-revealed}

Schools serving more deprived communities still get more funding than those in less deprived ones. But analysis by the National Audit Office found that between 2017/18 and 2020/21 most London boroughs saw real-terms decreases in per-pupil funding, as did cities with relatively high levels of deprivation such as Nottingham and Birmingham. Conversely, local authorities with lower levels of deprivation in the South West, the East Midlands and the South East received real-terms increases. The main reasons for this were that the national funding formula newly took into account changes in the relative deprivation of places such as London and included minimum per-pupil funding that benefited some parts of the country more than others. ¹⁹² Comptroller and Auditor General, School funding in England, Session 2021–22, HC 300, National Audit Office, 2021, www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/School-funding-in-England.pdf

^{*        The national funding formula currently operates in a form in which funding allocations set by DfE can be revised at local authority level. Implementation of a ‘direct’ national funding formula, without substantial local adjustment, may not be complete until 2027/28. See DfE, Implementing the Direct National Funding Formula: Government consultation, p. 7, 7 June 2022, https://consult.education.gov.uk/funding-policy-unit/implementing-the-direct-national-funding-formula/supporting_documents/Implementing%20the%20direct%20national%20funding%20formula%20%20government%20consultation.pdf.}

Higher schools spending reflects increased costs

In 2020/21, £51.5 billion was spent on the schools system, including non-mainstream schools – up from £47.1bn the previous year. ¹⁹³ Department for Education, Consolidated Annual Report and Accounts: For the year ended 31 March 2021 (HC 907), The Stationery Office, 16 December 2021, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1041620/CCS0121879180-001_DFE_Annual_Report_20-21_Web- Accessible.pdf This was the first full year of the pandemic, though only £1.4bn of the £4.4bn increase in spending was specifically due to Covid. Around £1.5bn came as part of an increase in general funding for schools, with an increase of almost the same amount split between two other factors.

First, a grant to help schools cope with higher teacher pension costs. Staffing costs account for around 80% of school spending, and have been subject to several exceptional increases since 2010. ¹⁹⁴ Department for Education, ‘Schools’ costs: 2021-22, 2022-23 & 2023-24’, March 2022, p. 7, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1057450/Schools_costs_technical_note_2021_to_2024.pdf The employers’ contribution rate for teacher pensions increased from 14.1% to 16.4% in April 2015, then to 23.6% in September 2019. ^{195 Llanwarne T and Wood M, Teachers’ Pension Scheme: Actuarial valuation as at 31 March 2012, pp. 3–4, Government Actuary’s Department, 2014.   196 Clarke M and Wood M, Teachers’ Pension Scheme: Actuarial valuation as at 31 March 2016, p. 7, Government Actuary’s Department, 2019.} The Treasury also expects funding for 2022/23 to cover teacher pay increases from September 2022 that the Institute for Fiscal Studies has calculated will average 5.4%, discussed further below. ¹⁹⁷ Sibieta L, ‘School spending and costs: the coming crunch’, Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2 August 2022, https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/output_url_files/IFS-BN347-School-spending-and-costs-the-coming-crunch.pdf

Second, extra spending on high needs – support for SEND pupils, as well as spending on alternative provision. As noted above, there has been a big increase in the number of children with education, health and care plans. As a result high needs spending is increasing faster than spending on schools in general and totalled £6.6bn in 2020/21. ^{198 Department for Education, Consolidated Annual Report and Accounts: For the year ended 31 March 2019 (HC 2388), The Stationery Office, 22 July 2019, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/906353/DfE_Consolidated_annual_report_2018-19_web.pdf   199 Department for Education, Consolidated Annual Report and Accounts: For the year ended 31 March 2020 (HC 865), The Stationery Office, 5 November 2020, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/932898/DfE_consolidated_annual_report_and_accounts_20…; to_2020__web_version_.pdf   200 Department for Education, Consolidated Annual Report and Accounts: For the year ended 31 March 2021 (HC 907), The Stationery Office, 16 December 2021, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1041620/CCS0121879180-001_DFE_Annual_Report_20-21_Web…; Accessible.pdf} In early 2022 the government published a SEND green paper that aims to standardise SEND provision nationally and improve early intervention. If implemented, the proposals may have the effect of controlling SEND costs to some extent – but the government is likely to face opposition from parents given they would also reduce their freedom in picking a school for their child. ^{201 Department for Education, SEND Review: Right support, right place, right time, CP 624, The Stationery Office, March 2022.   202 Institute for Government interview.}

The financial position of schools improved in the first year of the pandemic

Despite the additional demands noted above, in 2020/21 the percentage of local authority-maintained schools with cumulative negative reserves – a proxy for financial distress* – was lower than at any point since 2015/16. ^{203 Department for Education, ‘LA and school expenditure: Financial Year 2015–16’, 15 December 2016, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/la-and-school-expenditure-2015-to-2016-financial-year , 204 Department for Education, ‘LA and school expenditure: Financial Year 2016–17’, 14 December 2017, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/la-and-school-expenditure-2016-to-2017-financial-year , 205 Department for Education, ‘LA and school expenditure: Financial Year 2017–18’, 6 December 2018, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/la-and-school-expenditure-2017-to-2018-financial-year , 206 Department for Education, ‘LA and school expenditure: Financial Year 2018–19’, 13 December 2019, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/la-and-school-expenditure-2018-to-2019-financial-year , 207 Department for Education, ‘LA and school expenditure: Financial Year 2019–20’, 21 January 2021, https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/la-and-school-expenditure/2019-20 , 208 Department for Education, ‘LA and school expenditure: Financial Year 2020–21’, 16 December 2021, https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/la-and-school-expenditure/2020-21} The DfE puts the improvement in school reserves between 2019/20 and 2020/21 down to the pandemic, with schools spending less on supply teachers, learning resources and exam fees among other areas. ²⁰⁹ Ibid.

The share of academy trusts with cumulative negative reserves, including those covering non-mainstream schools, also decreased between 2018–19 and 2020–21, from 6.0% to 2.6%.^{**  210 Department for Education, ‘Academy trust revenue reserves 2019 to 2020’, 1 July 2021, www.gov.uk/government/publications/academy-trust-revenue-reserves-2019-to-2020   211 Department for Education, ‘Academy trust revenue reserves 2020 to 2021’, 19 April 2022, www.gov.uk/government/publications/academy-trust-revenue-reserves-2020-to-2021}

^{*        Reserves show the cumulative financial position of schools. If schools record in-year deficits this can ultimately lead to them building up negative reserves – in this situation, local authority-maintained schools are reliant on their local authority supplying additional funding. Academy trusts are reliant on support from the Education and Skills Funding Agency.}

^{**        Academy trusts’ financial years are aligned to the academic year, unlike those of local authority-maintained schools.}

Overall teacher numbers increased in the first year of the pandemic…

Overall teacher numbers have been increasing since 2018. Nursery and primary teacher numbers have been broadly stable, but secondary full-time equivalent employee numbers have increased by 4.8% over that period. ²¹² Department for Education, ‘School workforce in England: Reporting Year 2021’, 9 June 2022, https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/school-workforce-in-england/2021

With the number of younger children decreasing, nursery and primary pupil–teacher ratios have fallen since 2019, while the increase in secondary teacher numbers has been enough to keep secondary pupil–teacher ratios broadly stable, despite a growing number of secondary school pupils. ²¹³ Ibid.

As has been observed at other times of crisis, teacher recruitment was boosted by the pandemic with more than 40,000 new entrants to initial teacher training in 2020–21 – the highest level since at least 2009–10. ²¹⁴ Department for Education, ‘Initial Teacher Training Census: Academic Year 2021/22’, 2 December 2021, https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/initial-teacher-training-census/2021-22 And in secondary, where historically there are greater recruitment problems than in primary, the government hit its overall target for postgraduate teacher training that year – the first time this has happened since 2012–13. Trainee numbers dropped back somewhat in 2021–22, however.

But staff increases mask shortfalls in many subjects

However, behind the overall numbers, the picture is less encouraging. The government is not succeeding in training enough teachers in all of the subjects in which they are needed. The government sets annual, subject-by-subject initial teacher training recruitment targets, covering postgraduate training – in several subjects, including physics, design and technology, and languages, shortages are both severe and persistent.

What we therefore refer to as the underlying shortfall in initial teacher training for secondary teachers – the cumulative shortfall across individual subjects, ignoring over-recruitment in other subjects – fell in 2020–21. But it rose again in 2021–22, hitting 29% – that is, a shortfall of nearly a third, versus targets. A change in how the DfE calculates subject targets may have contributed to this. The new methodology is, however, intended to give a more accurate picture of whether enough teachers are being trained to meet demand. ²¹⁵ Department for Education, ‘Postgraduate initial teacher training targets: 2022 to 2023’, 21 April 2022, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/postgraduate-initial-teacher-training-targets-2022-to-2023

Retention rates improved before the pandemic but this is unlikely to persist

Retention rates for teachers in the first two years of their career increased slightly immediately before the pandemic – for those who qualified in 2016, 77.6% were still in teaching in 2018; for those who qualified a year later, 78.3% were in teaching in 2019. ²¹⁶ Department for Education, ‘School workforce in England: Reporting Year 2021’, 9 June 2022, https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/school-workforce-in-england/2021 This increased further during the pandemic – the two-year retention rate was 82.7% for those qualifying in 2019, the latest cohort for which data is available.

Pay is one factor that affects recruitment and retention, and the government also increased teacher salaries in September 2022 following a one-year pay freeze. This included an increase of 8.9% for the lowest paid qualified teachers as part of plans to reach £30,000 starting salaries for all qualified teachers in 2023–24* – one year later than initially planned. ^{217 School Teachers’ Review Body, Thirty-second report – 2022, CP 714, The Stationery Office, July 2022.   218 Department for Education, ‘Government delivers landmark rises to teachers’ salaries’, press release, 19 July 2022, www.gov.uk/government/news/government-delivers-landmark-rises-to-teachers-salaries   219 Whittaker F, ‘Spending review: Treasury now says £30k starting salary pledge pushed back a year’, Schools Week, 26 November 2020, retrieved 5 July 2022, https://schoolsweek.co.uk/spending-review-treasury-now-says-30k-starting-salary-pledge-pushed-back-a-year} But while higher pay for the lowest paid may have some effect on retention, it seems unlikely that the boost to retention rates during the pandemic will persist.

Overall, teacher pay was expected to increase by an average of 5.4% from September 2022, the Institute for Fiscal Studies has calculated, an increase which schools are required to cover from the funding allocated to them in the 2021 spending review. ²²⁰ Sibieta L, ‘School spending and costs: the coming crunch’, Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2 August 2022, https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/output_url_files/IFS-BN347-School-spending-and-costs-the-coming-crunch.pdf

^{*        Pay levels for teachers in London already start above £30,000.}

Pupils have missed large amounts of education, with primary results falling

For two academic years, 2019–20 and 2020–21, in-person teaching was interrupted by national lockdowns, with high levels of pupil absence at other times. ²²¹ Atkins G, Kavanagh A, Shepheard M, Pope T and Tetlow G, Performance Tracker 2021, Institute for Government, 19 October 2021, www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/performance-tracker-2021 Attendance was much better in 2021–22, with a median figure of 89.7%. (In 2018/19, the last complete pre-pandemic year, attendance was 95.3%, though based on a different methodology.)^{*  222 Department for Education, ‘Attendance in education and early years settings during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic: Week 28 2022’, 12 July 2022, https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-…   223 Department for Education, ‘Pupil absence in schools in England: Academic Year 2018/19’, 26 March 2020, https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/pupil-absence-in-schools-in-england/2018-19} Figures for the first term of 2021–22, however, show that nearly 98,000 pupils missed 50% or more of school sessions, which will have brought the median figure down. ²²⁴ Department for Education, ‘Pupil absence in schools in England: autumn term 2021/22’, 26 May 2022, https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/pupil-absence-in-schools-in-england-autumn-term/2021-22-autumn-term

Multiple studies have found that as a result of this disruption pupils lost learning during 2019–20 and 2020–21, with disadvantaged pupils particularly badly affected. ²²⁵ Education Endowment Foundation, The Impact of COVID-19 on Learning: A review of the evidence, May 2022, https://d2tic4wvo1iusb.cloudfront.net/documents/guidance-for-teachers/covid-19/Impact_of_Covid_on_Learning.pdf?v=1652815530 Available evidence, which has tended to focus on primary school pupils, generally shows that there had been some recovery by summer 2021, but that on average pupils were still behind where previous cohorts had been.

The government cancelled Key Stage 2 assessments, covering pupils at the end of primary school, in 2020 and 2021. Pupils were assessed in 2022, however, with interim results showing a fall in the percentage of pupils meeting the expected standard in reading, writing and maths from 65% in 2019 to 59% in 2022. ²²⁶ Department for Education, ‘Key stage 2 attainment 2022: national headlines’, 5 July 2022, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/key-stage-2-attainment-2022-national-headlines Under the two forms of Key Stage 2 assessment that have been in place since 2010, this is the first time that attainment has fallen.

This was driven by steep falls in maths and writing attainment, while attainment in reading increased slightly, from 73% of pupils reaching the expected standard to 74%. There is a lack of solid evidence on the reasons for this variation.

GCSEs and other external assessments were also cancelled for secondary pupils in 2020 and 2021 – with a major backlash in 2020 against plans to use an algorithm to set grades. Grades were set instead by schools and regulators in 2020, and schools in 2021, and were considerably higher than those in previous years. ²²⁷ Atkins G, Kavanagh A, Shepheard M, Pope T and Tetlow G, Performance Tracker 2021, Institute for Government, 19 October 2021, www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/performance-tracker-2021 GCSE exams took place in 2022, with results artificially set between pre-pandemic 2019 levels and 2021 levels. ²²⁸ Saxton J, ‘Ofqual’s approach to grading exams and assessments in summer 2022 and autumn 2021’, Ofqual, 30 September 2021, retrieved 10 July 2022, www.gov.uk/government/speeches/ofquals-approach-to-grading-exams-and-assessments-in-summer-2022-and-autumn-2021 Alternative evidence – the National Reference Test, taken by a sample of pupils at the end of secondary school – found a statistically significant fall in maths attainment from shortly before the pandemic hit in 2020 to 2022, but no statistically significant fall in English language. ²²⁹ Burge B and Benson L, ‘National Reference Test Results Digest 2022’, National Foundation for Educational Research, August 2022, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1100089/6957_NRT_results_digest_2022.pdf

^{*       Figures for 2021–22 relate to all state-funded schools, including state alternative provision, whereas figures for 2018–19 do not include alternative provision. Figures for 2021–22 also include pupils in Reception and pupils in sixth forms, whereas those for 2018–19 include only pupils aged 5–15. Finally, figures for 2018–19 are derived from the overall absence rate and count someone doing approved off-site educational activity such as job interviews as attending, while figures for 2021–22 only count in-person school attendance.}

The National Tutoring Programme has had problems but catch-up schemes are now reaching large numbers of pupils

Since June 2020 the government has committed £4.9bn for educational catch-up, allocated between the 2020–21 and 2023–24 school years. ²³⁰ House of Commons Education Committee, Is the Catch-up Programme fit for purpose?: Fourth Report of Session 2021–22 (HC 940), The Stationery Office, 2022. This is significantly less than the roughly £15bn recommended in 2021 by the government’s education recovery commissioner, ²³¹ Rachel Sylvester, Tweet, 2 June 2021, www.twitter.com/RSylvesterTimes/status/1399991919208509440 and as such is likely to be insufficient to allow schools to fully make up for lost learning.

The largest single component of this funding, at £1.5bn, is tutoring interventions: the government’s National Tutoring Programme, launched in November 2020, together with a smaller programme of 16–19 tuition. ²³² Department for Education, ‘National Tutoring Programme (NTP) policy paper’, (no date) retrieved 9 July 2022, www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-tutoring-programme-ntp/national-tutoring-programme-ntp

In its first years of operation, schools complained about the bureaucracy of the National Tutoring Programme and the time required to engage with it, with some headteachers also highlighting problems with the quality and availability of tutors. ^{233 House of Commons Education Committee, Is the Catch-up Programme fit for purpose?: Fourth Report of Session 2021–22 (HC 940), The Stationery Office, 2022.   234 Hazell W, ‘’Failing on all measures’ – how the Government’s flagship National Tutoring Programme ran into trouble’, i newspaper, 12 February 2022, retrieved 19 July 2022, https://inews.co.uk/news/education/government-national-tutoring-programme-schools-education-catch-up-1444606   235 Fazackerley A, ‘‘I’ve got one word for the tutoring programme – disastrous’: England’s catch-up scheme mired in problems’, The Guardian, 13 February 2022, retrieved 19 July 2022, www.theguardian.com/education/2022/feb/13/ive-got-one-word-for-the-tutoring-programme-disastrous}

Of the programme’s three strands, the one in which schools are able to source their own tutors has proved far more popular than those administered in 2021–22 by recruiting firm Randstad. (In March 2022 Randstad was axed from the contract for future academic years, owing to poor take-up of the two strands it was responsible for. ²³⁶ Shearing H, ‘Covid: Tutoring cash to go straight to English schools in shake-up’, BBC News, 31 March 2022, www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-60941001 )

The government had an overall target of 2 million courses taken under the National Tutoring Programme in 2021–22. ²³⁷ Department for Education, ‘Hundreds of thousands of pupils benefit from tutoring’, press release, 11 January 2022, www.gov.uk/government/news/hundreds-of-thousands-of-pupils-benefit-from-tutoring The government does not publish figures on course completions, but high take-up of the school-led strand meant that, as of 26 June 2022, an estimated 1.8 million courses had been started in the 2021–22 academic year. This is around 90% of the government’s target, if every course that was started was completed. ²³⁸ Department for Education, ‘National Tutoring Programme: June 2022’, 19 July 2022, https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/national-tutoring-programme/2022-june

In a survey of participating schools carried out by the National Tutoring Programme in autumn 2021, of those that responded a majority reported that it was having a positive impact on attainment. ²³⁹ Guthrie K, ‘Increasing the reach and impact of the National Tutoring Programme’, National Tutoring Programme, 25 January 2022, retrieved 17 August 2022, https://nationaltutoring.org.uk/news/increasing-the-reach-and-impact-of-the-national-tutoring-programme A formal evaluation of the first year of the programme has been delayed and will be published in autumn 2022. ²⁴⁰ Booth S, ‘National Tutoring Programme review delayed until autumn’, Schools Week, 20 June 2022, retrieved 19 July 2022, https://schoolsweek.co.uk/national-tutoring-programme-review-delayed-until-autumn