Performance Tracker 2022: Police

Police work is returning to pre-pandemic patterns, with less focus on non-crime activity such as anti-social behaviour, though this still takes up more police time than a decade ago. Total crime is at historically low levels but the picture over the past year is less clear due to recent methodology changes within police forces.

Looking ahead, police forces must begin integrating large numbers of newly recruited officers, the result of the Johnson government’s 2019 recruitment drive to add 20,000 officers by 2023, while managing shortfalls that remain in some localities and key areas such as fraud and investigations. Further, despite the increase in officer numbers, the proportion of recorded crimes being charged is at its lowest ever level and confidence in the police has fallen. This chapter covers the 43 police forces in England and Wales as the Home Office is responsible for policing in both nations. We present data on the police in both countries.

Police spending has risen in recent years but is still lower than in 2009/10

Most of the funding for policing in England and Wales comes from central government grants, with around a third coming from local taxation through a council tax levy known as the ‘police precept’. In 2020/21, £15.1 billion was spent on policing in England and Wales; this was 6.4% more in real terms than in 2019/20. ¹⁴² Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities, ‘Local authority revenue expenditure and financing England: 2020 to 2021 individual local authority data – outturn’, 26 May 2022, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/local-authority-revenue-expenditure-and-financing-england-2020-to-2021-individual-local-authority-data-outturn, and, StatsWales, Revenue outturn expenditure summary by service 2020-21, October 2021, (accessed 16 August 2022), https://statswales.gov.wales/Catalogue/Local-Government/Finance/Revenue/Outturn/revenueoutturnexpendituresummary-by-service

A large part of this increase came from the government drive to recruit more officers, which increased spending by £700 million in 2020/21, ¹⁴³ Home Office, ‘Police to receive more than £15 billion to fight crime and recruit more officers’, 17 December 2020, retrieved 11 August 2022, www.gov.uk/government/news/police-to-receive-more-than-15-billion-to-fight-crime-and-recruit-more-officers with a further £400m allocated for 2021/22. ¹⁴⁴ Home Office news team, ‘Factsheet: Police Funding Settlement 2021-22’, blog, 17 December 2020, retrieved 11 August 2020, https://homeofficemedia.blog.gov.uk/2020/12/17/provisional-police-funding-settlement-2021-22 The government also set aside an additional £58m to support Covid-related costs including overtime, bringing the total additional funding available to the police for Covid to £200m since the start of the pandemic. ¹⁴⁵ Home Office, ‘Police to receive £60 million to support COVI-19 response’, 12 February 2021, retrieved 11 August 2022, www.gov.uk/government/news/police-to-receive-60-million-to-support-covid-19-response

Policing responsibilities are returning to pre-pandemic levels

The nature of police work changed during the height of the pandemic, especially during lockdowns. First, there was a dramatic fall in traditional ‘volume crimes’ such as theft and burglary. Second, police increasingly focused on non-crime activities such as anti-social behaviour and mental health-related incidents, acting as ‘the service of last resort’ as other front-line services withdrew. ¹⁴⁶ Muir R and Skidmore M, Policing the Pandemic, The Police Foundation, 10 January 2022, p. 71, www.police-foundation.org.uk/publication/policing-the-pandemic

However, neither of these trends was new. For example, while there was a 13.4% fall in recorded incidents of burglary between 2013/14 and 2019/20, there was a 65% increase in missing persons work over the same period. ¹⁴⁷ The Police Foundation, A New Mode of Protection: Redesigning policing and public safety for the 21st century, March 2022, p. 36, www.policingreview.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/srpew_final_report.pdf But both were accelerated in the first year of the pandemic. More recently, there is evidence that demands on the police have returned to pre-pandemic levels. Her Majesty’s Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire and Rescue Services (HMICFRS) noted in May 2022 that while “demand on policing… continues to shift and change, inspectors generally find that practice is back to normal”. ¹⁴⁸ Criminal Justice Joint Inspection, The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the criminal justice system – a progress report, May 2022, p. 12, www.justiceinspectorates.gov.uk/cjji/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/05/CJ-Covid-19-recovery-progress-report-web-2022.pdf

Total crime is at historically low levels but the picture over the past year is unclear

There are two ways of measuring crime: how many crimes the police record (police-recorded crime) and how many crimes a representative sample of the population report in the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW; victim-reported crime). As fraud data was only recorded from 2015/16 onwards, this is discussed separately below.

The CSEW is a household-based victimisation survey that includes crimes that are not reported to the police and as such is a better indicator of longer-term trends for the crimes it covers. ¹⁴⁹ Office for National Statistics, ‘User guide to crime statistics for England and Wales: March 2020’, 4 November 2021, www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/methodologies/userguidetocrimestatisticsforenglandandwales#crime-survey-for-england-and-w… However, there was a change in methodology that means the data for 2020/21 and 2021/22 is not directly comparable to the pre-pandemic figures. The police-recorded crime figures cover a broader range of crimes, in addition to victim-based crimes, but are heavily influenced by changes in police crime recording practices. ¹⁵⁰ Ibid.

The CSEW shows a sustained long-term decline in crime over the past decade and in the past year. In 2021/22, there were 5,107,000 crimes (excluding fraud), an almost 10% fall on the year before. ^{151 Office for National Statistics, ‘Crime in England and Wales, Appendix Tables, year ending March 2022’, retrieved August 2022, www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/datasets/crimeinenglandandwalesappendixtables} The main driver of this fall was a 12% fall in theft offences over the period.

In contrast, after a fall during the first year of the pandemic, police-recorded crime (again excluding fraud) rose in 2021/22, with 5,335,806 crimes, 7% more than in 2019/20. ¹⁵² Office for National Statistics, ‘Crime in England and Wales: Police Force Area data tables, year ending March 2022’, retrieved August 2022, www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/datasets/policeforceareadatatables We cannot say for certain which data source better reflects crime trends over the past year but it is likely that overall crime (excluding fraud) has fallen and that the rise in police-recorded crime is largely due to improvements to police recording practices, particularly of crimes reported by professional third parties such as social services. ¹⁵³ Office for National Statistics, ‘User guide to crime statistics for England and Wales: March 2020’, 4 November 2021, retrieved 30 August 2022, section 4.2, www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/methodologies/userguidetocrimestatisticsforenglandandwales

Incidents of fraud remain high but fell slightly in 2021/22

The increasing role of digital technology in society has transformed the nature of crime. Many crimes have shifted online and carried out by criminals overseas that are difficult for police forces to reach. ¹⁵⁴ The Police Foundation, A New Mode of Protection: Redesigning policing and public safety for the 21st century, March 2022, ch. 2, www.policingreview.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/srpew_final_report.pdf

The CSEW started reporting on fraud in 2015/16 and since then levels of fraud and online crimes remain high. ¹⁵⁵ Atkins G, Pope T, Shepheard M and others, Performance Tracker 2021, Institute for Government, 19 October 2021, p. 106, www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/performance-tracker-2021 The survey identified approximately 4.5 million victim- reported fraud crimes in 2021/22, though this was 100,000 fewer than 2020/21. ¹⁵⁶ Office for National Statistics, ‘Crime in England and Wales, Appendix Tables, year ending March 2022’, retrieved August 2022, www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/datasets/crimeinenglandandwalesappendixtables

Despite the high levels of fraud and other online crimes, the Police Foundation’s strategic review of policing in England and Wales criticised the scale of police response, noting from the estimated 4.6 million fraud cases in 2020/21 there were only 4,853 charges or summons over the same period. ¹⁵⁷ The Police Foundation, A New Mode of Protection: Redesigning policing and public safety for the 21st century, March 2022, ch. 2, www.policingreview.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/srpew_final_report.pdf The review also highlighted the digital skills gap in many police forces including areas such as digital forensics and data analysts. ¹⁵⁸ Ibid., pp. 105–6.

Charge rates have fallen further

The proportion of recorded crimes that result in charges rose slightly in 2020/21 but fell to a new low of 6% in 2021/22, continuing the decline since 2014/15. ¹⁵⁹ Home Office, ‘Crime outcomes in England and Wales 2020 to 2021’, 22 July 2021, retrieved August 2022, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/crime-outcomes-in-england-and-wales-2020-to-2021 This trend has partly been driven by the increase in volume of crimes recorded (as above), but also the continued fall in the absolute number of charges. These have continually fallen since 2014/15 and fell 12.7% between 2020/21 and 2021/22 (from 417,751 to 364,799). ¹⁶⁰ Home Office, ‘Crime outcomes in England and Wales 2021 to 2022’, 21 July 2022, Table A.3 accessed August 2022, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/crime-outcomes-in-england-and-wales-2021-to-2022 In a highly critical report, HMICFRS attributed low charge rates for burglary, robbery and theft down to prioritisation, a lack of capacity, poor digital forensic capability and insufficient supervision. ¹⁶¹ HM Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire and Rescue Services, The police response to burglary, robbery and other acquisitive crime – Finding time for crime, 11 August 2022, www.justiceinspectorates.gov.uk/hmicfrs/publication-html/police-response-to-burglary-robbery-and-other-acquisitive-crime

Charging rates are low and have fallen particularly sharply for some types of crime. For example, between 2014/15 and 2021/22 the charge rate for sexual offences, including rape, fell from 11.3% to just 2.9%. ¹⁶² Home Office, ‘Crime outcomes in England and Wales 2020 to 2021’, 22 July 2021, retrieved August 2022, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/crime-outcomes-in-england-and-wales-2020-to-2021 The government’s end-to-end review of rape in England and Wales described this as a totally unacceptable situation and attributed it to complex factors such as increasing levels of digital data requested from victims, a national shortage of detectives and delays in investigative processes. ¹⁶³ Ministry of Justice, The end-to-end rape review report on findings and actions, June 2021, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001417/end-to-end-rape-review-report-with-correction… It also called for significantly greater levels of support for victims. ¹⁶⁴ Ibid.

The number of officers has increased but the government is not on track for its recruitment target

As of June 2022, there were 142,759 officers, 2.4% fewer than March 2010. ¹⁶⁵ Home Office, ‘Police workforce England and Wales: 31 March 2021 second edition’, 30 March 2022, retrieved August 2022,www.gov.uk/government/statistics/police-workforce-england-and-wales-31-march-2021 But this is still a sharp increase from the lows of the mid to late 2010s after the government committed in 2019 to a net increase of 20,000 officers by 2023.

By June 2022 the so-called police uplift programme launched in July 2019 had recruited 13,790 new officers. ¹⁶⁶ Home Office, ‘Police officer uplift, quarterly update to June 2022’, 27 July 2022, retrieved 15 August 2022, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/police-officer-uplift-quarterly-update-to-june-2022/police-officer-uplift-quarterly-update-to-june-2022 The National Audit Office reports that the total spend on the police uplift programme is expected to be £3.6bn by March 2023 if the programme delivers on budget. ¹⁶⁷ Comptroller and Auditor General, The Police Uplift Programme, Session 2021–22, HC 1147, National Audit Office, 2022, www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/The-Police-uplift-programme.pdf

In May and June 2022, the programme started to fall below its target and extra effort will be required to meet the target of 8,000 additional new officers in 2022/23. A Public Accounts Committee report noted the more difficult labour market conditions facing the programme with many vacancies across the economy and some recruits deterred by declining confidence in policing. ¹⁶⁸ House of Commons Committee of Public Accounts, The Police Uplift Programme, Fifteenth report of session 2022–23 (HC 261), The Stationery Office, 2022, p. 14, https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/23202/documents/169519/default An increase in officers leaving the force (discussed below) will make this situation yet more difficult.

Constabularies still lack a representative workforce and key skills

A National Audit Office review found that parts of the new intake do not meet current local or future policing needs. ¹⁶⁹ Comptroller and Auditor General, The Police Uplift Programme, Session 2021–22, HC 1147, National Audit Office, 2022, www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/The-Police-uplift-programme.pdf For example, there continue to be shortfalls in specialist policing areas such as intelligence and investigations. ¹⁷⁰ Home Office, ‘Police workforce England and Wales: 31 March 2021 second edition’, 30 March 2022, retrieved August 2022, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/police-workforce-england-and-wales-31-march-2021 The Police Foundation identified a shortfall of 6,851 accredited investigation detectives in 2021 with only 76% of accredited posts filled (though when trainees are factored in, this rises to 93%). ¹⁷¹ National Police Chiefs Council, Eighth Submission to the Police Remuneration Review Body, February 2022, www.npcc.police.uk/2022/Final sub.pdf In the short term this has an impact on workloads and timeliness, and leads to de-prioritisation of some types of crime – such as burglary, assault and theft. ¹⁷² The Police Foundation, A New Mode of Protection: Redesigning policing and public safety for the 21st century, March 2022, pp. 104–5, www.policingreview.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/srpew_final_report.pdf Forces themselves also recognise a lack of digital and digital forensics skills. ¹⁷³ Ibid.

Increasing police numbers has not adequately addressed the under-representation of minority ethnic groups in the police force noted by the Home Affairs Committee in 2021. ¹⁷⁴ House of Commons Home Affairs Committee, The Macpherson Report: Twenty-two years on, Third Report of Session 2021-22 (HC 139), The Stationery Office, 2021, https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5802/cmselect/cmhaff/139/13907.htm By the end of June 2022, just 1.6% of all new officers recruited since April 2020 were Black ¹⁷⁵ Home Office, ‘Police officer uplift England and Wales quarterly update to June 2022’, 27 July 2022, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/police-officer-uplift-quarterly-update-to-june-2022/police-officer-uplift-quarterly-update-to-june-2022 – approximately half the size of the Black population in England and Wales. ¹⁷⁶ Office for National Statistics, ‘Population estimates by ethnic group and religion, England and Wales: 2019’, 16 December 2022, www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/populationestimatesbyethnicgroupandreligionenglandand… It also does not suggest police forces have been particularly successful in attempts to bring this rate up as the existing proportion of Black officers nationally stands at 1.3%. ¹⁷⁷ Home Office, ‘Police officer uplift England and Wales quarterly update to June 2022’, 27 July 2022, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/police-officer-uplift-quarterly-update-to-june-2022/police-officer-uplift-quarterly-update-to-june-2022

Police retention worsened in 2021/22 amid high levels of pay dissatisfaction

Throughout the pandemic, the police have faced difficult working conditions that may have impacted wellbeing. The recent strategic review highlighted harder work with longer shifts and unique challenges – such as members of the public threatening to infect officers with Covid – as factors adding to police stress. ¹⁷⁸ The Police Foundation, A New Mode of Protection: Redesigning policing and public safety for the 21st century, March 2022, ch. 9, www.policingreview.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/srpew_final_report.pdf Despite this, police turnover stabilised during 2020/21. ¹⁷⁹ National Police Chiefs Council, Eighth Submission to the Police Remuneration Review Body, February 2022, www.npcc.police.uk/2022/Final sub.pdf However, this trend reversed in 2021/22 with a 35% increase in officers leaving the force. The total number of officers leaving was higher than in 2019/20, though below the high of 2018/19. ¹⁸⁰ Home Office, ‘Police workforce England and Wales: 31 March 2022’, 27 July 2022, retrieved August 2022, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/police-workforce-england-and-wales-31-march-2022/police-workforce-england-and-wales-31-march-2022

In the medium term, there may be further retention problems. The December 2021 Police Federation pay and morale survey found high levels of pay dissatisfaction, with this increasing to 82% in 2021, up from 69% in 2020. ¹⁸¹ Police Federation, Pay and Morale Survey 2021 – headline report, December 2021, www.polfed.org/media/17481/pplusm2021_headlinereport_180122_v011-2.pdf Surveyed even before double- digit inflation hit in 2022, almost all respondents (92%) said that pay increases would not maintain their standard of living. ¹⁸² Ibid. Police forces have little financial headroom as the police uplift programme is financed by central government for only the first three years, after which costs fall to forces. ¹⁸³ Comptroller and Auditor General, The Police Uplift Programme, Session 2021–22, HC 1147, National Audit Office, 2022, p. 22, www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/The-Police-uplift-programme.pdf

There is declining public confidence in policing

There is a wide range of survey evidence suggesting that public confidence in and satisfaction with police performance has fallen over recent years.

Most respondents to the CSEW report their local police are doing a good or excellent job. However, the number doing so declined from a high of 63% in 2015/16 to a low of 56% in 2019/20. A change to telephone-based interviews make recent years non- comparable but they too show a decline between 2020/21 and 2021/22.

Similarly, data from YouGov asking about policing in general indicates a marked loss of confidence. Averaging figures over a 12-month period in a survey carried out between July 2020 and June 2021, close to half (46%) of respondents said they either had not very much or no confidence at all in the police to deal with crime, compared to 39% a year earlier. ¹⁸⁴ Institute for Government analysis of data from YouGov, ‘How much confidence Brits have in police to deal with crime’, (no date), retrieved 18 July 2022, https://yougov.co.uk/topics/legal/trackers/how-much-confidence-brits-have-in-police-to-deal-with-crime Similarly, in a different survey averaged figures over the same time period show 57% of respondents felt the police were doing a good job compared to 70% a year earlier. ¹⁸⁵ YouGov, ‘Are the police doing a good job?’, (no date), retrieved 18 July 2022, https://yougov.co.uk/topics/legal/ trackers/are-the-police-doing-a-good-job

This deterioration in attitudes in policing in general is likely to be linked to several high-profile policing scandals in 2021/22. For example, in July 2022, HMICFRS placed the Metropolitan Police under special measures after ‘substantial and persistent’ concerns, including poor handling of the Stephen Port case, the murder of Sarah Everard, the strip search of three children including Child Q and unprofessional behaviour at Charing Cross police station. ¹⁸⁶ BBC News, ‘Met Police: Inspectorate has ‘substantial and persistent’ concerns’, 29 June 2022, retrieved 11 August 2022, www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-61977535

Trust among minority groups is even lower. A YouGov poll in October 2021 identified that only 44% of minority ethnic Britons trust the police, down from 52% in October 2020. ¹⁸⁷ Abraham T, ‘Trust in the police has fallen amongst ethnic minority Britons’, YouGov, 15 December 2021, retrieved 17 August 2022, https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/12/15/trust-police-has-fallen-amongst-ethnic-minority-br This finding matters given continued disproportionate use of stop and search powers which, HMICFRS notes, causes suspicion among communities that they are being unfairly targeted. ¹⁸⁸ HM Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire and Rescue Services, Disproportionate use of police powers – A spotlight on stop and search and the use of force, 26 February 2021, www.justiceinspectorates.gov.uk/hmicfrs/publications/disproportionate-use-of-police-powers-a-spotlight-on-stop-and-search-and-the-use-of-force HMICFRS identified using 2019/20 data that Black people were about 5.7 times more likely to have force used on them than their white counterparts.