The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales

On Thursday 18 January 2024, the final report of the Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales (‘the commission’) was launched at the Welsh Parliament (Senedd Cymru) in Cardiff. The commission set out 10 recommendations designed to strengthen Welsh democracy and protect devolution.

Why was the commission established?

The 2021 Welsh Labour manifesto, ‘Moving Wales Forward’, promised Welsh Labour would “lead Wales in a national civic conversation about our constitutional future” and would establish an independent commission to consider Wales’ constitutional future. ⁵⁵ Welsh Labour, ‘Moving Wales Forward: Welsh Labour Manifesto 2021’ Welsh Labour, 8 April 2021, retrieved 22 January 2024, movingforward.wales/, pp 64-66. This commitment was re-iterated in the 2021 Labour-Plaid Cymru Cooperation Agreement, in which both parties agreed to support the commission’s work. ⁵⁶ Welsh Government, ‘The Co-operation Agreement: 2021’, Welsh Government, 22 November 2021, retrieved 22 January 2024, www.gov.wales/co-operation-agreement-2021, p 7.

The commission was set up at the end of 2021 with a remit to address two broad objectives: to consider and develop options for reforming the constitutional structures of the UK, and to consider and develop all ‘progressive principal options’ to strengthen Welsh democracy.  ⁵⁷ The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales, ‘Broad Objectives’ Gov.Wales, 19 October 2021, retrieved 22 January 2024, www.gov.wales/independent-commission-constitutional-future-wales/broad-objectives.

Who were the commissioners?

Eleven commissioners were appointed to the independent commission in 2021, including co-chairs Professor Laura McAllister (Cardiff University) and Dr Rowan Williams (the former Archbishop of Canterbury).  

The nine other commissioners included representatives of the four main political parties in Wales (Labour, Plaid Cymru, Conservatives and Liberal Democrats) and non-political figures from backgrounds including the civil service and the TUC. ⁵⁸ The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales, ‘The Commission’, The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales, 2 January 2024, retrieved 22 January 2024, www.useyourvoice.wales/key-people.

How did the commission carry out its work?

The commission ran for two years and gathered evidence via a range of methods, including taking oral evidence from experts and political leaders, public consultation, a programme of citizen and community engagement, a series of deliberative citizens’ panels, and a representative survey of the Welsh population. The stated objective was to facilitate “a 'national conversation’ with the citizens of Wales about how they see the future of their nation.” ⁵⁹ The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales, ‘Final Report: January 2024’, The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales, 17 January 2024, retrieved 22 January 2024, www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2024-01/independent-commission-on-the-constitutional-future-of-wales-final-report.pdf, p 5.   

The commission received support from an expert panel and a secretariat staffed by officials from the Welsh government.  

An interim report was published in December 2022, and the final report in January 2024.

What did the commission recommend?

The commission set out 10 recommendations for reforms that should be implemented as soon as possible, irrespective of the long-term destination of Wales.

Three recommendations were targeted at ways the Welsh government strengthening Welsh democracy. These included increasing the capacity for democratic innovation and inclusive community engagement, engaging citizens in drafting a statement of constitutional and governance principles for Wales, and resourcing a full review of the impact of its proposed reforms to the size and electoral system of the Senedd. ⁶⁰ The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales, Final Report: January 2024, 17 January 2024, page 121, www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2024-01/independent-commission-on-the-constitutional-future-of-wales-final-report.pdf

The remaining seven recommendations focused on protecting devolution by addressing what the commission described as flaws in the current settlement, including a recommendation that the UK government pass legislation to put intergovernmental relations and the Sewel convention on a firmer footing.  

In addition, the commission called for the removal of constraints on Welsh government budget management, a greater devolved role in broadcasting and energy policy, and the devolution of responsibility for justice and policing, and rail services and infrastructure. ⁶¹ The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales, Final Report: January 2024, 17 January 2024, page 123, www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2024-01/independent-commission-on-the-constitutional-future-of-wales-final-report.pdf

What did the commission say about different scenarios for the long-term future of Wales?

The report also outlined and assessed three “viable option[s] for the governance of Wales in the long term”: enhanced devolution, a federal UK structure and Welsh independence. ⁶² The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales, Final Report: January 2024, 17 January 2024, page 94, www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2024-01/independent-commission-on-the-constitutional-future-of-wales-final-report.pdf

Enhanced devolution would involve a review of the funding settlement for devolution and a reformed House of Lords. The commission concluded that this model offered benefits in terms of cost, coordination of cross-border services and economic stability. ⁶³ The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales, Final Report: January 2024, 17 January 2024, page 123, www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2024-01/independent-commission-on-the-constitutional-future-of-wales-final-report.pdf However, it would not fundamentally change the position of Wales in the UK economy, risking ‘continued relatively poor economic performance.’  ⁶⁴ The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales, Final Report: January 2024, 17 January 2024, page 123, www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2024-01/independent-commission-on-the-constitutional-future-of-wales-final-report.pdf

The report outlined a federal UK, with a written constitution and legal entrenchment of devolution, as a “middle way” between devolution and independence. Potential benefits include improved accountability, finances and economic prospects. ⁶⁵ The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales, Final Report: January 2024, 17 January 2024, page 124, www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2024-01/independent-commission-on-the-constitutional-future-of-wales-final-report.pdf But achieving this vision would require an appetite for fundamental constitutional change elsewhere in the UK, which is lacking. ⁶⁶ McAllister L, It’s time to decide on the future we want for Wales, WalesOnline, 20 January 2024, www.walesonline.co.uk/news/news-opinion/its-time-decide-future-want-28478971

The commission concluded that Welsh independence would increase agency, accountability and subsidiarity for Wales but faced the highest risks in terms of currency, borders, trade and other factors. ⁶⁷ The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales, Final Report: January 2024, 17 January 2024, page 124, www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2024-01/independent-commission-on-the-constitutional-future-of-wales-final-report.pdf This scenario posed the risk that Wales could be made significantly worse off in the short to medium term. ⁶⁸ The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales, Final Report: January 2024, 17 January 2024, page 124, www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2024-01/independent-commission-on-the-constitutional-future-of-wales-final-report.pdf

The commission made no recommendation on which option to select, arguing that this was a decision for political parties and individual citizens.

Are the recommendations made by the commission likely to be implemented?  

The majority of the proposed reforms are in the hands of politicians in Westminster, since they would require legislation to amend the powers of the Senedd and other constitutional matters that are reserved to the UK Parliament.  

The current government is unlikely to take forward any of the substantive recommendations made by the commission. The secretary for state for Wales has been critical of the commission and its call for further devolution to Cardiff, ⁶⁹ Nation.Cmyru, Welsh Secretary David Davies peers into ‘crystal ball’ and says Commission will call for more powers for the Senedd, 14 January 2024 Welsh Secretary David Davies peers into 'crystal ball' and says Commission will call for more powers for the Senedd (nation.cymru) which the Welsh Conservative leadership also opposes. ⁷⁰ Welsh Conservatives, ‘Constitutional Commission ‘a distraction’ say Welsh Conservatives, 18 January 2024, retrieved 22 January 2024, https://www.conservatives.wales/news/constitutional-commission-distraction-say-welsh-conservatives

The UK Labour Party has emphasised it is ‘committed to reinforcing the status of the Senedd, strengthening intergovernmental working and pushing power out of Westminster.’  ⁷¹ Hayhrust C, ‘Urgent changes needed to protect Welsh devolution, independent commission finds’, Independent, 18 January 2024, www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/welsh-rowan-williams-labour-union-wales-b2480514.html The shadow secretary of state for Wales responded to the commission by stating that Labour was exploring the potential devolution of youth justice and probation, but was not considering the full devolution of policing and justice.  ⁷² BBC News, Senedd should not get Welsh police powers: Senior Labour MP, 22 January 2024, retrieved 22 January 2024, www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-68056282