Civil Service staff numbers at the Spending Review

There are 392,900 civil servants (FTE), down 4,990 from the previous quarter.

There were 392,900 civil servants at the end of September 2015, according to ONS figures released this week. This represents an 18% reduction since 2010. In 2012, the Civil Service Reform Plan ‘estimated’ that there would be 380,000 civil servants by 2015. With one more reporting period – and just 12,490 civil servants – to go, it appears that this expectation will not be met. That said, the Civil Service will get much closer to its estimate than the relatively flat progress of the last two years suggested. It is also unlikely that this future projection (never referred to as a target) will be replaced. After last month’s spending review, Cabinet Secretary Jeremy Heywood declared that ‘[T]here is no predetermined target for reducing numbers. There is no 'right size' for the Civil Service’. These reductions were not spread evenly among departmental groups: DWP alone shrank by 3,770.

The most recent reductions have come from just seven departmental groups (which includes the departments themselves and the other organisations they are responsible for). DWP – the largest departmental group – lost almost 5% of its workforce (3,770 full-time equivalent – FTE) between June and September. DH lost 4% (340 FTE, from Public Health England) and MoD lost 2% (1,040 FTE). Meanwhile, some of the smaller departmental groups grew. HMT took on an extra 100 FTE (a 6% increase in their total workforce). DfT grew by 3% (370 FTE), as did the smaller DCLG (up 70 FTE). BIS took on an extra 190 FTE (a 1% increase). DWP remains the largest departmental group – 65 times the size of DCMS, the smallest.

The larger departmental groups absorbed most of these reductions, leaving the overall departmental picture much the same as before. The largest five departmental groups – DWP, MoJ, HMRC, MoD and HO – still make up three-quarters of the whole civil service workforce. Jeremy Heywood may be correct that there is no ‘right size’ for the whole civil service, but workforce planning at a departmental level is critical. The appropriate size and structure of a department depends on the kind of work it does: direct interaction with the public (such as DWP), overseeing other organisations (like BIS) or focussing mostly on developing policies (such as DECC). A new tool for government – the Single Departmental Plan – might tell us what ministers expect their departments to look like in five years’ time. In his blog, the chief executive of the Civil Service trailed these yet-to-be-published documents, suggesting that “each department is taking responsibility, through its Single Departmental Plan, for assessing its own priorities and the workforce needed to deliver them” Most departmental administration budgets are being cut this Parliament, by up to 46% (MoJ).

The Single Departmental Plans are yet to be published, but the Spending Review settlements might indicate which departments will see the greatest reductions in staff numbers. DWP is facing a 16% nominal reduction in its administration budget over the next five years. MoJ is set to make the largest administration reductions (46% by 2019/20), which is very likely to impact on its 64,070-strong workforce. The admin. budget of HMRC is set to rise (due to its ambitious programme of digital transformation) but it may still see staff reductions. Permanent secretary Lin Homer has spoken about making departments ‘diamond-shaped’, with some administrative staff replaced by automated transactions.  Some departments (DCLG, BIS, Defra) cut quickly five years ago, but that pattern is unlikely to be repeated

In the last Parliament, some departments (DCLG, BIS) front-loaded their headcount reductions; some (DH, DfE), made most of their reductions mid-way through the Parliament, while others (MoJ, DWP) proceeded more gradually. This last approach will characterise the next Parliament, according to Sir Jeremy Heywood: [W]e expect this process [of shrinking] to slow down…If headcount reductions are necessary, they will be fairly and sensitively managed, and achieved, as far as possible, on a voluntary basis and through natural wastage. But there are big challenges ahead. The Home Office, where staff numbers have crept back up towards the 2010 baseline, now faces a 25% reduction in administrative spending by 2019/20. DECC, which spent most of the last Parliament growing, faces a 9% reduction. The Single Departmental Plans will hopefully give us an idea of how departments are going to manage with less and to balance these reductions against their delivery priorities. We at the Institute for Government look forward to seeing them.

Abbreviations for government departments can be found here.