Stormont may be back but now is not the time to move the Northern Ireland secretary

While circumstances may have helped the Northern Ireland secretary pull off his deal, Julian Smith’s role in bringing the Northern Irish parties back to government was still crucial.

The prime minister’s Brexit deal managed to unify all parties in concerns about what it would mean for trade with GB, and his decision to go for that deal de facto ended the Conservatives’ confidence and supply arrangement with the DUP. The election result also meant that Johnson no longer needed to look to the DUP for votes while also allowing Northern Irish voters to express their dissatisfaction with both major parties. This all combined with a growing frustration in Northern Ireland at the state of the health service, strikes by nurses and teachers and the perception that the political vacuum had created policy paralysis. Something had to give – and this weekend the parties agreed to go back into government.

Now the deal is in place, stability will be key to ensure that it works.

The new Stormont agreement is a mix of carrots and sticks

The UK government could be accused of blackmailing the parties in Northern Ireland back into government. A big set of financial inducements (the size of which is yet to be determined) were offered – if the parties agreed to go back in government now. That would enable them, among other things, to establish pay parity, end the strikes, and bring down Northern Ireland’s appalling waiting lists. Indeed, on reestablishment the executive has a lengthy list of policy changes to take forward – and in many key areas it also has to commit to producing longer-term strategies to address many of Northern Ireland's deep-seated problems.

The message being sent out in London is that this is restoration for a purpose. The parties cannot come back and duck difficult long-term decisions – something which people in Northern Ireland told us was a feature of the executive when it was functioning normally. So not only are the proposals highly prescriptive, but there is also provision for continuing oversight of how the extra money is spent through a joint board convened by the secretary of state. This is government with a provisional rather than a full licence.

The agreement also makes a large number of proposals to address the problems revealed in the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) scandal – and some of the structural flaws in the way it operated. There are a lot of proposals to improve transparency and scrutiny, enforce standards and to give the smaller parties, who suffered even when in government at the hands of the DUP-Sinn Fein duopoly, a fairer crack.

It also inevitably has to navigate a tricky path on legacy and culture – the issues that have proved so divisive in the past.

Johnson may want to move Julian Smith but this is a time for stability not change

Prime ministers have been too willing to use Northern Ireland as a convenient out-of-sight-and-out-of-mind post for someone they do not want in a bigger Cabinet role. As we have argued, the main consideration should be who is good for Northern Ireland. Julian Smith has rapidly established himself as a hugely more effective NI secretary than his Conservative predecessors. He has also shown he is willing to stick up for Northern Ireland in the Cabinet. Even so, he is rumoured to be on the hitlist for a reshuffle. The Northern Ireland Office (even though it just has acquired a new permanent secretary in Madeleine Alessandri) might even be rolled in to a new Department of the Union.

Both would be bad moves. Northern Ireland is complicated – and so is this agreement. Its implementation needs to be shepherded by someone who has both the relationship with the parties and external stakeholders, with the Irish government and a detailed understanding of its provisions. At a time when the incoming top official at the NIO has no immediate NI experience on her CV, moving Smith would show that the Johnson government is unserious about Northern Ireland. After restoration, the second big NI priority for the year will be landing an implementable NI protocol – by the scheduled end date of the transition period in December – where there are still many gaps to be filled. Smith’s willingness to be honest about what it means, understanding of the concerns of NI business and relationship with the Irish government all are needed to do that with least damage to UK-NI relations.

A Department of the Union would also send the wrong signal. Theresa May’s government’s willingness to rely on DUP votes compromised its ability to perform the key role if honest broker. A secretary of state whose prime task was holding the UK together would not be well placed to perform the delicate balancing act that Northern Ireland requires.

By accident or design, Johnson has put the right person in the right job at the right time. With a fragile government in Belfast on the cusp of re-emergence, London should prioritise stability rather than disruption for disruption’s sake.