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Explainer

UK–EU future relationship: EU member state elections

How the EU member state elections might affect the Brexit negotiations.

Why do European elections matter to the UK?

Political changes within the 27 EU member states could impact negotiations over the future relationship treaty, and potentially its ratification.

While the European Commission will negotiate with the UK, member states and the European Parliament will have the final say on the terms of the UK’s future relationship with the EU. Not all member states had the same priorities when it came to the EU’s relationship with the UK. A new government in one state could change that member state’s priorities again.

A comprehensive new partnership deal (or 'mixed agreement') is likely to require both unanimous assent in the European Council and ratification by the European Parliament as well as national and/or regional parliaments. In 2016, the ratification of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), the EU’s trade deal with Canada, was almost thwarted by the objections of one of Belgium’s three regional parliaments. The Italian Government has threatened not to ratify CETA, while the Dutch parliament only narrowly voted in favour of the agreement.

What European elections are happening during the future relationship negotiations?

National elections have the potential to change the composition of the European Council, and could shift the negotiating approach of individual member states.

The systems of proportional representation and coalition politics in most EU states can result in extended periods following elections where there is no official government, the record being 541 days following the 2010 Belgian general election. It took 225 days for Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte to form a new coalition government after the March 2017 general election, and Belgium has, following an inconclusive election in May 2019, maintained its pre-election government to handle the coronavirus pandemic. Italian coalition talks lasted 88 days after the March 2018 election. The Swedish government took 131 days to form after its September 2018 election; its previous record was 19 days.

There is always the possibility of surprise and snap elections, or the appointment of new leaders – such as the reappointment of Sebastian Kurz as Austrian Chancellor in 2020 following a snap election after the ‘Ibiza affair’, or the resignation of Antti Rinne and succession of Sanna Marin as Finnish prime minister in 2019.

What has happened in recent European elections?

There have already been substantial changes in key member states since prime minister Theresa May triggered Article 50 in March 2017.

  • Poland held a presidential election in June and July 2020 in which the incumbent Andrzej Duda, supported by the right-wing Law and Justice Party, was re-elected.
  • Slovakia held a parliamentary election in February 2020 in which the ruling social democratic-led administration was replaced with a conservative-led coalition.
  • The Republic of Ireland held a legislative election on 8 February 2020, with Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin each gaining 22% of the vote. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have gone into coalition negotiations while Fine Gael leader Leo Varadkar has remained Taoiseach in an interim capacity.
  • Sebastian Kurz returned as Austrian chancellor in January 2020, bringing the Green Party into government with him. Kurz is pro-EU but strongly anti-migration.
  • Croatia held presidential elections across 2019 and 2020 in which the centre-left Zoran Milanović beat the incumbent centre-right Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović. Croatia currently will hold the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU until July 2020. Both candidates have had histories in promoting the country’s ascension to the EU.
  • Poland held legislative elections in 2019, in which the Law and Justice Party maintained control of the Sejm (Polish Parliament) but lost its majority in the senate. The party is eurosceptic and looks to maintain the presidency in the 2020 elections.
  • Following the 2019 general election, Pedro Sánchez was re-appointed prime minister of Spain at the head of a left-wing PSOE-Podemos coalition – which combines the pro-Europeanism of social democracy with a left-Eurosceptic coalition partner.
  • In Italy, the right-wing coalition led by La Lega and the populist Five Star movement collapsed in 2019, being replaced with a coalition from the centre left Democratic Party and Five Star. The coalition was built, in part, on a pro-European agenda and moves Italy away from the avowed Euroscepticism of La Lega.

Forthcoming European election dates

Country

Expected election date

Longest time to form a government (day)

Lithuania 11 October 2020 60
Croatia 23 December 2020 76
Romania Late 2020/early 2021 24
Portugal (presidential) January 2021 n/a
Netherlands 17 March 2021 225
Germany August–October 2021 171
Czech Republic October 2021 95
Bulgaria (presidential) October/November 2021 n/a
Topic
Brexit

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