Vaughan Gething’s successor as Welsh first minister faces three key challenges

Restore the authority of the Welsh government

Vaughan Gething resigned after four ministers stepped down from his government, with one accusing him of providing “rudderless” leadership since he lost a confidence motion over a month ago and another arguing that Gething’s premiership “threatens the continued existence of the devolution journey itself.”  ¹³ Julie James, Tweet, 16 July 2024, www.x.com/JulieJamesMS/status/1813130696946291063.

Concerns over transparency and political judgement marred Gething’s time as first minister, with bruising headlines over a controversial donation to his leadership campaign, alleged deletion of WhatsApp messages from the pandemic period, and the controversial sacking of minister for social partnerships Hannah Blythyn for allegedly leaking private messages to the media – which both Blythyn and the media outlet in question denied.

On 5 June, Gething lost a motion of no confidence that had been tabled by the Welsh Conservatives amid these controversies. His position had already been weakened by the decision of Plaid Cymru to withdraw their support, but Gething chose to stay in post despite losing the confidence vote, describing the motion as a ‘gimmick’.  ¹⁴ Devlin K, ‘Pressure mounts on Vaughan Gething as four ministers quit and urge him to stand down’ Independent, 16 July 2024, retrieved 16 July 2024, www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/vaughan-gething-four-ministers-quit-resign-b2580502.html.  Under the Government of Wales Act 2006,  ¹⁵ Government of Wales Act 2006 c. 32, s 47.  Gething was legally entitled to stay in post: there is a requirement to resign only in the event of a vote of no confidence in the whole government. But having lost the confidence of the Senedd, Gething’s fall appeared to be only a matter of time. The resignation of Gething’s ministerial colleagues on the morning of 16 July sealed his fate.

Rebuild relationships with other parties in the Senedd

The next first minister will inherit a minority government, meaning that rebuilding relationships with other parties will be crucial for the government to deliver on any of its legislative objectives. Even becoming first minister in the first instance will require opposition parties not to coalesce around an alternative candidate (unlikely – but not impossible).

Following the 2021 elections, Welsh Labour won 30 of the 60 seats in the Senedd – one short of a majority. Whilst the parliamentary system is set up to enable a minority government, previous first ministers have typically entered into coalition and co-operation with other parties in order to govern more effectively. Most recently, under Mark Drakeford’s leadership the government signed a co-operation agreement with Plaid Cymru that set out their intentions to collaborate on 46 specific policy areas. However, Plaid withdrew from this agreement in May 2024 – six months earlier than intended – shortly after Vaughan Gething took office.  

With less than two years until the next Senedd elections, the new first minister will need to rebuild relationships with other parties in order to get things done. According to former first minister Mark Drakeford – who spoke privately to the IfG earlier this week – a formal cooperation agreement may be unlikely, but the new first minister should nonetheless take active steps to rebuild relations with other parties, in particular Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats:  

“For the rest of this term, for Labour to be able to continue to govern, we’ve got to make the running, we’ve got to show our ambition for the future and we’ve got to go out and talk to those other parties who share a broad progressive outlook here in Wales.”

Build a new partnership with Westminster

Whoever becomes the new first minister, the tone they strike will therefore be critical for balancing relations with the Welsh government, across the Senedd and between Cardiff Bay and Westminster. 

The next first minister will need to look to Westminster and develop a new partnership with the newly elected UK Labour government. Labour’s manifesto promised to “strengthen the relationship between the governments in Westminster and Cardiff Bay”  ¹⁶ Labour Party, Change : Labour Party Manifesto 20204, page 111, retrieved 16 July 2024, https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Labour-Party-manifesto-2024.pdf , with the manifesto outlining an expanded role for the devolved nations in terms of representation on UK-wide bodies, and representation on a new council of regions and nations.

With the UK and Welsh governments led by the same party for the first time in 14 years, there are new opportunities for cooperation between Westminster and Cardiff on issues where policy levers are divided between the two tiers of government – areas such as net zero, industrial strategy, energy and infrastructure.

However, the new first minister will also have to stand prepared to take a tough line in dealings with Westminster to maintain cross-party support in the Senedd, for instance in making the case to UK Labour that it should commit to further devolution in areas such as policing and justice, as recommended by the Independent Commission on the Future of Wales.  

This has been a difficult time for the Welsh government – and for Labour in Wales. Mark Drakeford stepped down on his own terms. Vaughan Gething very much did not as his government collapsed after just 118 days. The third first minister of 2024 has a big challenge on his or her hands to pick up the pieces.