COP29: Keir Starmer needs to deliver on his bold clean power commitments

World leaders have been gathering in Azerbaijan to discuss climate change goals at COP29. The location – a fossil fuel producing country – has been controversial, while the election of Donald Trump raises questions about the United States’ commitment. 

But against that difficult background the importance of action has been underlined again by the terrible flooding in Spain and the news that 2024 is on track to be the warmest year on record, 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The UN warned that the world was on course for a rise of up to 3.1°C without further cuts to emissions.

Not all world leaders are attending, but Keir Starmer racked up yet more air miles as he headed to Baku. So where does COP29 leave the UK government?

Keir Starmer has committed the UK to an ambitious target for 2035 but now he has to deliver

The prime minister announced at COP that the UK’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target will be to reduce emissions by at least 81% compared to 1990 levels by 2035, following advice from the UK’s independent advisory body the Climate Change Committee (CCC). ¹⁶ https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-remarks-at-cop29-12-november-2024

With the election of Trump and the absence of the leaders of the United States, China, Brazil, Germany and France at the conference, this was in important statement of intent. But politicians often find it easier to set targets than to deliver. 

The interim chair of the CCC said the new target was feasible and would support jobs and investment but that the UK was behind schedule when it came to delivering 2030 cuts of 68%, with further action needed to speed up deployment of electric vehicles, heat pumps alongside tree planting and peatland restoration.

Ambitious targets are easier to set than deliver

The prime minister notably said that this was “not about telling people how to live their lives” but about stable energy bills and the next generation of jobs. ¹⁷ https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2ny8zndpxo#:~:text=Prime%20Minister%20Sir%20Keir%20Starmer,parties%20(COP29)%20in%20Azerbaijan.  But the CCC’s latest progress report warns that hitting the UK’s 2030 targets would require around 10% of existing UK homes to be heated by a heat pump (up from around 1% today) and the market share of new EVs to increase to nearly 100% (from 16.5% today). As successive governments have recognised, that is going to require regulations ending the sale of gas boilers and petrol and diesel vehicles. ¹⁸ https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Progress-in-reducing-emissions-2024-Report-to-Parliament-Web.pdf

This does not have necessarily to be unpopular – countries like Norway have already achieved successful transitions to EVs and heat pumps and a survey found most people who have fitted a heat pump in the UK were pleased with them. ¹⁹ https://www.nesta.org.uk/report/heat-pumps-a-user-survey/

But in contrast, Germany has found the politics of decarbonising heating very complicated, with a significant backlash against plans to ban new installations of oil and gas heating systems. ²⁰ https://www.politico.eu/article/heat-pumps-exploded-germany-ruling-coalition-green-law/

The Conservatives are seizing on net zero as a new political dividing line 

Shadow energy secretary Claire Coutinho immediately argued that the new target would lead to hardship for the British people, requiring a shift away from meat and dairy and less travel.

Coutinho gave an interesting outline of her views at the Institute’s Conservative Party conference event in September, arguing that she thought it was more productive to look at what the UK could contribute globally, through innovation for example, rather than focusing on reducing emissions domestically. She also argued that cheap energy should be the primary concern to stop UK industrial activity moving abroad to other more highly emitting countries. That could well be an attractive argument for those struggling with high energy bills and reluctant to change their car or heating.

Reducing electricity prices – so that people see the financial benefit of switching to green technologies – will be key for the government. But cutting prices means removing existing levies from bills, while also funding substantial new investments in decarbonising the power sector. Those costs will have to be paid for.

Listen to our Conservative Party Conference event with Claire Coutinho

Leadership on the climate means more than talking 

The prime minister has made it clear that he wants the UK to go back to being a world leader on climate, and both the absence of other world leaders and the government’s early steps on clean power means there is a real opportunity to do that. But that also brings responsibility. To encourage other countries to prioritise decarbonisation, the UK will need to show the transition can be achieved without negative political or economic impacts. 

The net zero consensus has shown signs of fraying in the UK, and could yet become a political dividing line. If the government wants to lead other countries towards decarbonisation then it first needs to step up its engagement with the public and secure buy-in for the path it wants to take on clean power. Setting out goals to world leaders at global summits is welcome; speaking to the voting bill-payers at home is essential.