While the UK talks to itself, the EU has moved on

With the return of the EU Withdrawal Bill to Parliament last week, the debate in the UK has again turned to whether or not the Government should seek to remain in some form of customs union with the EU. But this ongoing negotiation with ourselves risks distracting attention from the fact that our actual negotiating partners, the other 27 EU member states, have moved on. They are not just preparing for Brexit, they are acting as if it has already happened.

Brexit is already reshaping economic relations within the EU

Other than the UK, the member state that will be most affected by Brexit is Ireland. So far, much of Dublin’s energy has been focused on avoiding a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. But they are also determined to ensure that Brexit does not have a negative impact on their relationship with the rest of the EU. While trade with the UK is of huge importance to Ireland, trade with the other member states matters even more to their economy.

Until now, the UK has acted as a ‘land bridge’ for Irish exports and imports – lorries travel from Dublin to Holyhead by ferry, overland through the UK and then onwards from Dover and other English ports to markets on the continent. With the UK planning to leave both the customs union and single market, Irish traders are worried that the land route to Europe will become more costly and cumbersome. To help deal with this, last week the world’s largest roll-on, roll-off cargo ship was launched in Dublin. The MV Celine will carry cargo directly between Ireland and the Netherlands and Belgium, bypassing the UK entirely.

In internal EU debates, new allegiances are forming without the UK

Traditionally, the UK has been one of the loudest voices in the EU calling for budgetary restraint. Now, other like-minded member states are building a new coalition to make the case against increased EU spending in the next budget period, 2021-17.

This group are also opposed to the renewed drive for greater EU economic integration that President Macron of France is leading, cautiously supported by Chancellor Merkel of Germany; and they can no longer rely on the UK to stand up to the biggest two member states. This grouping, and other regional alliances within the EU like the Visegrad Four, are likely to grow in importance in the EU in coming years.

The EU is striking new deals around the world

While the UK argues about how to roll over existing EU trade deals with countries like Canada and South Korea, so that businesses don’t face a cliff edge at the point of exit, the EU is updating its existing deals and signing new ones. In the last week, Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom has announced the end of negotiations on a new deal with Japan and an updated agreement with Mexico. If these come into force before the UK leaves the EU (which is by no means certain), the UK will benefit from their terms, but will have to agree with both countries that this can continue during the planned transition period that will start on 29 March 2019.

With other things to worry about, the EU isn’t focusing on the UK

The UK is an important economic and security partner to each of the other member states. They all want a close deal. But we also noted that they have many issues other than Brexit to focus on, from domestic politics to Russian aggression and a big debate on the new budget kicking off. And protecting the single market matters more to them than getting a good trade deal with the UK.

It has never been true that ‘they need us more than we need them’. But the longer the UK takes to work out what kind of Brexit it actually wants, the more likely we are to get left behind by an EU determined not to let Brexit bring it down.