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Trust in government is growing – but it needs to deliver

Much has been written about the deep divide between Leave and Remain voters. New polling published today by the IfG challenges this analysis

The months since the UK voted to leave the European Union have been some of the most tumultuous times in British politics that many of us can remember. Commentators have suggested that people have lost faith in politicians and experts. And much has been written about the deep divide between people who voted Leave and people who voted Remain. But new polling published today by the Institute for Government challenges much of this analysis. Emma Norris highlights the five big messages.

More people believe that politicians try to make government work well than they did in 2014. Surprisingly, given the negative views of politics and politicians generated by the EU referendum, our polling suggests that the public is more likely to think that government is focused on the right things than it was in 2014: 8% more people believe politicians are prioritising the implementation of policies that are best for Britain; 7% more that they are prioritising taking long-term decisions; and 5% more that they are prioritising running government professionally. At the same time, people think politicians are less likely to focus on scoring political points (down by four percentage points since 2014).
People don’t think politicians prioritise their constituencies. There have been questions about whether the gap between the so-called political elite and other people’s lives is fuelling dissatisfaction with our model of government. One of the obvious places our MPs in Westminster can connect with the people they represent – and narrow this gap – is in their constituencies. But our polling suggests people don’t feel politicians prioritise this part of their role (see Figure 2). In fact, only 11% of people actually think politicians prioritise representing their local area – compared to the 47% of people who think they prioritise scoring points against each other.
People have not ‘had enough of experts’ The idea that citizens have given up on evidence and experts is strongly contradicted by our polling. As shown in Figure 3, 85% of people want politicians to consult professionals and experts when making difficult decisions, and 83% want government to make decisions based on objective evidence. This has gone up since 2014, suggesting we should not call time on evidence-based policymaking yet. Whether on the expansion of grammar schools, high-speed rail or social mobililty, people want to see that the rhetoric of policymaking is grounded in evidence.
Both Leave and Remain voters are sceptical about whether the Government will deliver key Brexit and domestic policies People who voted Leave and Remain are not as far apart as you might expect. Both groups are unconvinced that the Government will be able to deliver a fairer immigration system when negotiating Brexit – although people who voted to remain are, unsurprisingly, more sceptical than those who voted to leave (see Figure 6). And in general, neither Leave nor Remain voters are convinced that the Government will be able to deliver on some very significant domestic challenges, with Remain voters particularly sceptical. Only 15% of Remain voters think that the Government is going to improve public services – compared to 41% of Leave voters. Even on social mobility – a policy area Theresa May has singled out for attention – only one in five Remain voters, and just over one in three Leave voters, believe that the Government will provide people from all walks of life with opportunities to succeed. While Theresa May has dropped George Osborne’s target of achieving an absolute financial surplus, she has still committed to the former Chancellor’s programme of cuts to public services at a time when pressures on them are mounting. Improving the quality of schools and hospitals in this climate will be extremely challenging and is likely to involve tax increases or borrowing. But the Government must also contend with spending promises made during the referendum campaign: the public tends to be unforgiving of politicians who backtrack on high-profile policy commitments.
The public doesn’t want big announcements – they want to know how things will get done Politicians put a lot of energy into policy announcements, but our polling suggests people are unimpressed by them. Only 4% think making big announcements should be a priority for politicians. Instead, people want politicians to tell them how they are going to deliver their policies. 70% of Leave voters and 75% of Remain voters say they would be more likely to vote for a party that could demonstrate how it would implement its policies in government. But over two months into May’s government, there is little detail on how Brexit will be negotiated and delivered. A number of different policies have been announced or implied – grammar schools, a new industrial strategy and a new push on social mobility – with scant further explanation. Soon people will want to hear more details about how these policies will be delivered. ‘Brexit means Brexit’ might not cut it for much longer.
Publisher
Institute for Government

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