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The EU will stick together over Brexit

While they all have their own priorities, solidarity will prevail among the EU 27.

At this week’s European Council meeting, the 27 member states will agree their negotiating guidelines for talks on the future UK-EU relationship. They all have their own priorities, but solidarity will prevail, says Tim Durrant.

Friday’s summit will set the terms for the future UK-EU relationship

While we have seen various leaked drafts over the last couple of weeks, on Friday the 27 EU leaders will agree a final version of the guidelines for the next phase of Brexit negotiations – the framework for the long-term relationship between the UK and the EU.

Member states have different interests

In our report this week, we looked at the interests of each of the member states in that relationship. We found that different groups of member states have different priorities. For example, many of the Eastern countries, like Poland, Romania and Lithuania, will want to maintain the right for their citizens to work in the UK.

Close allies like the Netherlands, Denmark and Sweden will want a very close relationship with the UK in both trade and security. Exports to the UK generate a significant proportion of member states’ GDP, particularly for those in the north west of Europe or with large manufacturing sectors (the UK buys a lot of European cars).

Member states exports to the UK as a percentage of GDP

And as the draft guidelines have evolved, reports indicate that different member states are pushing for their own priorities to be included. For example, a leak last week suggested that Finland and Spain, whose national airlines are part of the OneWorld alliance with British Airways, pushed for a closer relationship on aviation.

The integrity of the EU27 outweighs individual interests

But, despite these different interests, the priority of the other member states is clear. They are committed to maintaining the unity and integrity of the EU and its Single Market. This is both a political and economic imperative. From the political point of view, key member states including France, Germany and the Netherlands need to show both domestic opposition and other EU members that leaving the bloc is not the right decision.

Net trust in the European Union by member state

Economically, while the UK is an important export market for all of the 27, maintaining free trade with the rest of the EU is more important. The EU’s fear is that the UK secures a special deal for privileged access to the Single Market, without having to comply with all its rules. That would set a dangerous precedent, as other countries tried to get their own opt-outs.

Brexit is not the only thing on the agenda

European leaders will discuss Brexit on Friday afternoon, without Theresa May. As well as the guidelines for the future framework, they will also consider the draft transition deal and withdrawal treaty published earlier this week.

But they have a lot of other things to consider. High-profile agenda items today, which the Prime Minister will be present for, include the Salisbury attack and potential US tariffs on European exports. But there will also be detailed discussions on tax policy and the possibility of Balkan countries joining the EU.

Despite different priorities, that solidarity is not going anywhere

The UK will be hoping from solidarity from the other 27 regarding what happened in Salisbury. And it will also want to agree a unified response to any move from the Trump administration to increase tariffs. So it should not be surprising to anyone in London that the other 27 member states will also prioritise solidarity in the face of Brexit.

Topic
Brexit
Country (international)
European Union
Publisher
Institute for Government

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