Dominic Cummings’ exit means little for Boris Johnson’s Brexit decision

With just six and a half weeks until the end of the transition period it is still not clear whether or not the UK and the EU will strike a deal. Compromise on both sides is required, but Lord Frost, the UK’s chief negotiator, has tweeted that any deal needed to be “compatible with [the UK’s] sovereignty and takes back control of [the UK’s] laws, [the UK’s] trade, and [the UK’s] waters”.

This declaration followed Dominic Cummings’s departure from Number 10, and seemed to counter any suggestion that his exit would soften the UK’s red lines. With Lord Frost confirming already that there is no change to the UK’s mandate, a change of position is unlikely to happen. This is hardly surprising: Cummings, who has been focused on the roll out of mass coronavirus testing and civil service reform, has not been closely involved in the Brexit talks.

Ultimately, the prime minister alone must decide how the UK leaves the transition period. It is his decision whether no deal is a price worth paying for ‘taking back control’ – or whether he will listen to the concerns of business who argue any deal is better than none. His former chief adviser had views on Brexit; but only the prime minister has the final say.

A deal resulting in a more distant relationship with the EU may be a difficult sell to the British public

The UK government is seeking a notably ‘hard’ form of Brexit. Leaving the single market and customs union will mean significantly more red tape for those looking to trade with the EU in the future – the result of a trade-off between protecting supply chains and sovereignty.

This means the difference between no deal and deal is smaller than it would have been if compared to Theresa May's deal – although business groups have made it clear that a deal is still preferable. Crucially, a deal would remove tariffs on goods – a cost that, in a no-deal scenario, could make some businesses no longer viable. A deal would also ease the operation of the GB-NI border, necessary under the Northern Ireland protocol.

A deal may mean the UK won’t experience the full negative impact of no deal, but the economy would still likely take a hit and initial disruption at the GB-EU border would be inevitable. While no deal could be spun as a defiant display of independence, and any disruption blamed on the EU, in a deal scenario, the prime minister would need to take responsibility for the new barriers to trade.

This is made harder by the government’s failure to communicate the trade-offs involved in its negotiating position. For those who believe that Brexit was ‘done’ back in January, even leaving the EU with a deal at the end of the year will be a relatively rude awakening.

Johnson needs to be able to sell his Brexit compromises to his MPs

To reach a deal, the UK will need to make concessions on the level playing field – which covers the environment, workers’ rights and state aid – as well as on access to UK waters for EU fishers. Compromises in these areas will seem unacceptable to at least some of Johnson’s backbenchers – and opening a second front as he does battle over coronavirus lockdowns will be an unappealing prospect for the prime minister. However, Cummings’s exit, which has gone down well amongst MPs that he had little regard or time for, may improve relations.

There are others on the Conservative benches more concerned about what no deal will mean – not just in relation to the UK’s place in the world but also the impact on their constituents. Whichever way the prime minister turns, it will not be easy to convince both his MPs and the country that it was the right choice.

For now, with just under seven weeks to go, Boris Johnson seems reluctant to walk away from talks despite, according to reports, no sign of those talks bridging the significant gaps between the two sides.

The man who shaped the persuasive ‘take back control’ message of Vote Leave, and played a key part in the ‘Get Brexit Done’ campaign which swept Johnson to power, has lost control before Brexit got done. Other voices, with different views, might now fill the vacuum created by Dominic Cummings’ exit. But, as it was from the start of these talks, the prime minister alone must decide what form of Brexit his government endorses.