Four things we learnt from the UK–EU high-level meeting

For those hoping for the return of some Brexit drama, Monday’s ‘high-level meeting’ between the UK prime minister and EU institution leaders (the presidents of the EU council, commission and parliament) was not it. Both sides are committed to reaching a deal by the end of the year. Holding more talks will help, but it is still possible that negotiations end without a deal being reached, such is the scale of the task. But that does not appear to be either side’s intention – and a joint UK–EU statement published the same day as the talks provides some clues on what to expect over the coming months.

The implementation of the Withdrawal Agreement will be key

The joint statement leaves no room for interpretation: the Withdrawal Agreement must be implemented in full by the end of the year. The worries on both sides are well known. The EU wants more detail on how the ‘modalities’ of the Northern Ireland protocol will work – not least how the UK intends to perform checks on mainland GB goods destined to enter the EU single market via Northern Ireland. The UK wants to see more done to protect the rights of its citizens living and working in the EU. Both sides will be watching closely for signs of progress on these points.

Neither side wants the talks to go to the wire

As was confirmed on Friday 12 June, there will be no extension to the transition period beyond 31 December this year. To help this timeframe work, the UK and EU have agreed to hold more talks over the coming weeks. The hope on the UK side is to reach the outline of a deal by July, in part to allow businesses time to prepare to trade under radically different circumstances. The EU has floated 31 October as a deadline, to give the EU council (the grouping of the 27 member state heads) and EU parliament sufficient time to scrutinise and debate the deal. One thing is clear: neither sides wants the talks to go to the wire.

The UK and EU will need to prioritise

There is no way a comprehensive deal, like that proposed in the Political Declaration, can be reached between now and the end of the year. This means that the UK and EU will need to prioritise. This is good news for the UK – which has already indicated it wants a more limited agreement than originally proposed in the declaration.

But both sides still need to agree what a barebone deal should cover. For the EU, a more limited deal means a lot of internal heavy lifting – balancing the interests of 27 EU governments and the EU parliament, all of which have their own demands. If member states are to agree a less ambitious deal, they will want to make sure it covers at least some of the EU’s core interests, like fair competition and fisheries.

The high-level meeting was a declaration of intent

This meeting was not a make-or-break moment for the negotiations. There were also no real signs of compromise. For that, the UK and EU will still need to agree on substance. For the UK, this means outlining the boundaries of any future UK–EU deal to ensure it does not limit its newly acquired sovereignty.

For the EU, it means definitions: if the UK will not sign up to a level playing field, what would the closest thing look like? What does the UK mean by “coastal zones”? And how could the UK and EU best resolve trade disputes? The EU will want to make sure there is no room for misinterpretation – both between it and the UK (where they have clashed over certain aspects of the Northern Ireland protocol) and within the EU itself. The last thing the EU wants is for a business to challenge it in court over the interpretation of the deal.

For now, the ambition is still to reach a deal, rather than manage a no-deal fall out (though both sides are expected to step-up their no-deal preparation just in case). The joint statement is a positive step – now comes the tricky part of agreeing the content of a future deal. That is no small task, even for the skinniest of deals.