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Brexit Brief: negotiating the UK’s exit from the EU

There are two key sets of negotiations the UK must complete as part of its exit from the European Union: the withdrawal agreement (the ‘terms of the divorce’), and the future UK–EU relationship. Robyn Munro looks at the what, who, how and when of the negotiations.

What?

The withdrawal agreement will cover immediate issues such as the rights of EU citizens in the UK and of UK citizens abroad, the relocation of EU agencies currently based in the UK, and how to allocate unspent funds due to be received by UK regions and farmers. These are the negotiations that are triggered by Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. The negotiations on the UK’s future relationship with the EU will need to cover a wider range of areas. Our table of future options outlines some of the key negotiating trade-offs, including trade and immigration. Leaving the EU will also affect trade with the rest of the world. The UK will therefore need to enter talks with non-EU countries and key international institutions, such as the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Who?

On the UK side, both sets of EU negotiations will be led by the Prime Minister, working closely with the new Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, David Davis. Supporting the negotiations will be a challenge for the Civil Service, requiring new capabilities and skills in key areas such as trade negotiation. The terms of the deal will affect all parts of the UK; the Government has indicated its intention to involve the devolved administrations  in the negotiations. Local government will also have an interest. On the EU side, Article 50 envisages that four institutions will be involved in conducting the withdrawal negotiations:

  • The European Council, heads of the 28 member states, defines the EU’s overall direction and priorities.
  • The Council of the European Union, made up of ministers from member states, negotiates and adopts legislation and concludes international agreements.
  • The European Commission, effectively the EU’s civil service, supports the Council in undertaking negotiations.
  • The European Parliament, comprising elected MEPs from each member state, scrutinises, amends and adopts legislation and international agreements.

The 27 other member states will also play a crucial role in informal negotiations on the future relationship, and will almost certainly have to individually ratify any final agreement.

How?

Article 50 gives little detail about how the withdrawal negotiations will be run, stating that the European Council will agree ’guidelines’ for them. There have already been disagreements between the Council of the European Union and the Commission on which institution should lead the formal negotiations. The Council has appointed a diplomat to lead its so-called ‘Brexit taskforce’, which is expected to be supported by Commission officials. In practice, the negotiations may be more complex, with a series of informal bilateral discussions between member states and the UK also taking place.

When?

Article 50 sets a two-year deadline for a deal on the UK’s withdrawal agreement with the EU. David Davis, Secretary of State for Brexit, has said that he would trigger Article 50 ‘before or by the beginning of next year’. The two-year negotiation period only applies to the withdrawal agreement under Article 50. Negotiations on the future UK-EU relationship can continue after the two-year period, whatever the outcome – but once the Article 50 negotiations are completed and implemented the UK will be negotiating as a non-EU member state. The length of negotiations on the future UK-EU relationship will vary depending on the desired end-goal. If the aim is a “Norway” model, this could take less time than a bespoke arrangement as the UK would not need to negotiate every aspect of its cooperation with the EU as the existing European Economic Area agreement would cover the terms of this cooperation. Any new trade deal following the model of Canada or Singapore is likely to take much longer. It is unclear what happens if the UK exits the EU without completing negotiations on the future UK-EU relationship. For trade, the default would be for the UK to rely on WTO membership, which would place the UK outside the EU’s Common External Tariff. Alternatively, the UK and the EU might agree some interim arrangements.

Topic
Brexit

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